Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images All advanced metrics suggest that the current Cowboys are, shocker here, very bad. After the Cowboys fell to the Texans on Monday night, losing their fifth straight game, two things have become clear. On one hand, this team is headed in the wrong direction when you look at leading indicators of success. On the other hand, they’re heading in the absolute right direction for a top draft pick. If the season ended today, the Cowboys would be picking ninth per Tankathon. But looking at the advanced statistics suggests that the Cowboys can aspire to much more than that, but only if you’re operating with the mindset of maximizing draft value. Let’s take a look. The Cowboys are a very bad football team. Like, super bad. They’re wildly inefficient on both offense and defense, and even special teams has dropped in the DVOA rankings for two straight weeks now. There are only five teams worse than Dallas in total team DVOA right now, and four of them – the Titans, Raiders, Panthers, and Patriots – are led by rookie head coaches. The one exception is the Browns, who lost to the Cowboys in the season opener. 2024 NFL Team Tiers, Weeks 1-11, courtesy of rbsdm.com The EPA-based team tiers are less flattering, somehow. The Cowboys are now 31st in total EPA/play, ever so slightly ahead of the dismal Panthers. While DVOA measures efficiency adjusted for quality of opponent, EPA looks solely at how efficient teams have actually been, regardless of who they played. In that regard, the Cowboys are the second-worst team in the league through 11 weeks despite seven teams having a worse record. These metrics are certainly not predictive, but if things continue on this trajectory for the rest of the year, the Cowboys are looking at a top three draft pick come April. Offense The offense didn’t take much of a dip in the efficiency metrics from last week, but that’s only because they had a whole different kind of inefficiency this time around. Last week, they hardly moved the ball at all, with Cooper Rush averaging a measly two yards per attempt. This week, Rush had 354 passing yards but also threw a pick, had a fumble returned for a touchdown, and had four turnover worthy plays on the day. The run game was somehow worse, averaging 3.6 yards per carry against a below-average run defense. Cooper Rush has now started two games, in addition to a handful of plays earlier in the year, and he does not measure up well against the rest of the league. His best metric here is QBR, where he ranks 31st and just barely ahead of Deshaun Watson. In every other category, Rush is no better than 34th. That makes sense for a backup quarterback, but it’s still a far cry from what you want to see. Dak Prescott wasn’t playing well at all when he went down, but he was still considerably better than what Rush has put up thus far. The dismal numbers are making it very hard to ignore the terrible product this front office has put on the field on offense. A big part of the offensive struggles has come from the offensive line. The Cowboys have been gradually dropping in adjusted line yards, which measures offensive line success in run blocking, each of the last five weeks. Rico Dowdle has unquestionably been their best running back, but nobody could have success behind this line with the way they’ve been playing. In pass protection, it’s been a mixed bag. Tyler Smith and Cooper Beebe have been legitimately good, and even Tyler Guyton has fared well for a rookie left tackle. But Zack Martin is easily having the worst year of his career, while Terence Steele is second in most pressures allowed and leads the league in sacks allowed. The right side of the line has been abysmal for the Cowboys all year. Defense The defense actually had a solid game, at least for them. They didn’t move up in any of the efficiency rankings, but their actual grades improved somewhat. They also jumped up to fourth in pressure rate, both a sign of how valuable Micah Parsons is and how good Mike Zimmer’s scheme can be; for context, last year’s defense had 16 players record multiple pressures on the year, and so far Zimmer’s defense has 15 players that have done so. Where Zimmer’s defense has been consistently bad, though, is against the run. That remained true this week, as Joe Mixon absolutely went off from start to finish and averaged nearly as many yards after contact per attempt as he did total yards per carry. Josh Butler and Israel Mukuamu both recorded their first start of the year, and it went about as you’d expect. Together, they allowed six receptions on nine targets, and both recorded a pass breakup. Butler struggled more, but considering he wasn’t even on the active roster on Monday morning, it’s hard to judge him too harshly. One player who does deserve some criticism is DeMarvion Overshown. While the second-year linebacker has often flashed against the run, his coverage results have been disastrous. Among linebackers with 25+ targets on the year, Overshown leads in completion rate allowed and ranks eighth in passer rating and third in yards after the catch despite having the second-lowest average depth of target. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted Overshown over and over with great success, and it’s becoming a real issue.

Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images It is one thing that the Cowboys are still losing games, but it is another that they have already squandered future draft capital on top of it. The Dallas Cowboys have lost another game. Their 3-7 record puts them in the bottom 10 in the league, and it’s not likely to get much better as the season progresses. When a bow is tied on the 2024 season, the Cowboys should find themselves with a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL draft. That’s a silver lining to an otherwise terrible season, but as their draft capital improves, it also brings attention to their fourth-round draft pick that they no longer have. Earlier in the month, the Cowboys traded away their fourth-round pick to acquire wide receiver Jonathan Mingo from the Carolina Panthers. The decision was criticized because it felt like a high price for a receiver who has struggled at the NFL level, but that price keeps going higher with every additional loss. This draft pick is on pace to be just outside the top 100 picks. When the Cowboys initially made the trade, we attempted to look at the average value of the picks they gave up and compared them to the players they got in return. The result was that the Cowboys actually came out ahead in those deals. That is good and all, but that only tells half the story. We didn’t analyze what the Cowboys could have gotten from using those picks to draft players. The Cowboys are a good drafting team. Giving up good draft capital for a player comes with risk. Using the same metric as before, the total AV value a team should expect from a draft pick can be represented below (data courtesy of Arrowhead Pride). For a fourth-round pick, a total AV value (with their original team) of around five is what teams should expect on average. If we looked at the last 10 drafts, starting from 2023 (they didn’t have a fourth-round pick last year because of the Trey Lance trade), this is what their haul looks like: YEAR PLAYER APPROXIMATE VALUE HIT/MISS 2024 No Pick N/A N/A 2023 Viliami Fehoko 0 miss 2022 Jake Ferguson 11 hit 2021 Jabril Cox 2 miss 2021 Josh Ball 1 miss 2020 Reggie Robinson II 0 miss 2020 Tyler Biadasz 25 hit 2019 Tony Pollard 37 hit 2018 Dorance Armstrong 17 hit 2018 Dalton Schultz 19 hit 2017 Ryan Switzer 0 miss 2016 Charles Tapper 0 miss 2016 Dak Prescott 107 hit 2015 Damien Wilson 13 hit 2014 Anthony Hitchens 24 hit Looking at this list, the Cowboys have hit on eight players during that span: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Tyler Biadasz, Anthony Hitchens, Dalton Schultz, Dorance Armstrong, Jake Ferguson, and Damien Wilson. All of those players easily exceed the projected AV value of five. Eight hits from 14 selections is a hit rate of 57%. The data analysis from Arrowhead Pride also explained that a successful draft pick is defined by an AV score of 12 or more. And since all rounds aren’t created equal, there are higher expectations for picks selected earlier than others. The success rate by round is shown below for a 28-year data sampling. This data shows that the Cowboys’ fourth-round success rate is better than twice the league average. Note: Jake Ferguson only had an AV score of 11 entering this season, but we’re classifying him as a successful pick since he’s eclipsed 12 when adding the current season. The Cowboys’ success rate of 57% matches what teams get from second-round picks. Again, this further validates the idea that this team drafts well. They don’t hit on everything, but when you analyze the data, they come out looking very good. This makes the Mingo trade even more problematic. On Monday night, Mingo had zero catches on four targets. He’s been with the team for two weeks and is still acclimating himself to the Cowboys’ offense. While his true value remains to be determined, the chances of him exceeding what the Cowboys would get just by making the pick isn’t encouraging. Sure, the pick could be a Fehoko or a Tapper, but there are also a lot of Pro Bowlers on that list, so the data continues to suggest this was a bad move by the Cowboys. And with that draft pick improving with each loss, it’s even more likely they would’ve selected a good player.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images Which Commanders players do you think can have the most success against the Cowboys? The Dallas Cowboys were predicted to be one of the best teams in the NFC East division this year and the Washington Commanders one of the worst. Nothing could be further from the truth heading into this Week 12 matchup between bitter division rivals. Both teams seem to be heading in opposite directions of one another right now. Under the guidance of their new head coach Dan Quinn and their first-year rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have been one of the more entertaining and surprising teams to emerge as a legitimate playoff contender this year. With the multitude of injuries Dallas is dealing with and the overall poor play so far this season, this is a game that sways heavily in the favor of the Commanders. There are a few matchups worth keeping an eye on for entertainment purposes which we listed below, but all in all this will more than likely be yet another embarrassing loss for the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy vs. Dan Quinn If you’re looking for a matchup that heavily favors the Washington Commanders, look no further than Mike McCarthy versus Dan Quinn. Not only is Quinn highly familiar with the Cowboys offensive scheme and McCarthy’s play-calling as Dallas’ former DC, but he’s also very familiar with the personnel as well. Quinn should be able to take advantage of all of this knowledge he’s stored up over the years in Dallas and incorporate it into the game plan for this Week 12 matchup, the first of two between these bitter division rivals. Cowboys’ OL vs. Commanders’ DL Sadly, this is another matchup that is looking as if it will heavily favor the Washington Commanders. Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith, and Zack Martin all exited last weeks game early due to injuries and didn’t return, putting their availability in question for this Week 12 matchup. That could mean the Dallas Cowboys OL will be patchworked with backups against a pretty talented Washington DL headlined by Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton. That probably means it will be really tough for the Dallas to get anything going offensively. DE Micah Parsons vs. LT Brandon Coleman If there’s a matchup that might favor the Cowboys, it’s Micah Parsons versus Washington’s LT Brandon Coleman. Coleman was the Commanders third-round pick (67th overall) this year and has played surprisingly well so far in his rookie season. He’s only been penalized once this year and has only given up a total of four sacks this season. He could have his hands full with Parsons though. No. 11 didn’t have a QB sack last week, but he had two against the Eagles in Week 10. Another multi-sack game is definitely attainable for Parsons.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports All Cowboys fans care about these days is the NFL Draft. Wash, rinse, repeat. That feels like the Cowboys season right now as each week we go through the motions of a football game only to lose, and then repeat the process all over again. There are only so many ways to describe a season as bad as this one. There will be no playoff tracking, no tie-breaker scenarios, no dreams of a Super Bowl run. Instead, there is only one thing left worth playing for. The 2025 NFL draft. That is the reward for this miserable season. As long as the Cowboys don’t mess things up by winning, they should be looking at a Top-10 pick, and who knows how high up that pick may actually end up being. In this week’s survey we are asking our standard question about confidence in the direction of the team, but we’re pretty sure about that response. But we are also asking about a new subject – the 2025 draft. We want to know what position group the Cowboys should go after with that projected Top-10 pick. Vote in the poll then hit the comments. Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NFL. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Dallas Cowboys fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys. Please take our survey

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images The Cowboys safety room just took a big hit. The Dallas Cowboys have been riddled with injuries in 2024. Safety Markquese Bell joined the crowd when he suffered a shoulder injury on Monday night against the Houston Texans. As of Wednesday, it was reported that his shoulder is dislocated, and he will miss the remainder of the 2024 season. S Markquese Bell will miss the rest of the season with a dislocated left shoulder that may require surgery, per multiple sources. Special teams coordinator John Fassel became emotional when talking about Bell Tuesday, knowing the severity of the injury and the loss for the unit. — Todd Archer (@toddarcher) November 20, 2024 Bell was out of position in 2023 under former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn when he played linebacker. He produced well with 94 tackles in 649 snaps, but it took a toll on him and by the end of the year as his lack of size became an issue as teams constantly ran at him with success. The former undrafted free agent has been back at safety in 2024, but he’s only logged 34 defensive snaps as Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker have been the starters, although they haven’t played very well. However, he has been a big special teams contributor with 168 snaps logged. Bell is a restricted free agent in 2025, and with the struggles in the safety room, the Cowboys would be wise to bring him back, considering he’ll fit their model of not costing a lot.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, 2024 NFL Week 12 Keep track of everything related to Cowboys at Commanders in NFL Week 12 as Dallas visits Washington on Sunday afternoon. Contributors: TCDeckard and David Halprin The Dallas Cowboys will be looking for their first win in over two months when they visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon, and if opening odds are any indication, it is going to be a tall task to say the least. Opening odds saw Dallas as 10-point underdogs to their division rivals, a group that is now led by former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. With Tyler Biadasz, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler and Noah Igbinoghene, Washington’s group is crawling with players who wore the star on their helmet in recent history. Perhaps that is what has been working so well for Washington this year as they are threatening to win their first division title since 2020. Those matters will be more difficult after their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but this should provide a great bounce-back opportunity for them especially with that Philly game taking place on Thursday night. As far as the Cowboys are concerned. things are about as bad as they can be. Mike McCarthy, Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdle, Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, no matter who or what, nothing seems to be going right for Dallas. They have been losing so much lately and doing so in embarrassing fashion and assuming they do drop this game it will send them into their annual Thanksgiving Day game with a six-game losing streak. Needless to say the Cowboys need something good to happen and for it to happen as soon as possible. Whether or not that comes on Sunday in Landover ultimately remains to be seen. Here’s our stream for everything you need to know about it all. We will update it throughout the week to include all relevant news regarding the game, injuries and everything else.

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images The latest news around the Dallas Cowboys. Micah Parsons on the state of the Cowboys: ‘I’m gonna put this out there … we’re a damn good football team’ – Declan Walsh, 24/7 Sports Despite the recent struggles, Micah Parsons feels the Dallas Cowboys are better than their record says. The Dallas Cowboys were subjected to another beatdown before a primetime national audience Monday evening, falling to 3-7 on the 2024 season with a 34-10 loss at home against Houston. Despite these high visibility struggles and five-straight losses, star linebacker Micah Parsons insists that his Cowboys are a “damn good team,” adding that the scores in recent weeks don’t reflect the quality of Dallas’ team. #Cowboys Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs share their confidence in the team despite what the scores and their record say. Parsons: “We a damn good football team.” ( : The Edge with Micah Parsons) pic.twitter.com/MXpc4pIzvD — Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) November 19, 2024 “I’m going to put this out there, we’re a damn good football team,” Parsons said on his “The Edge” podcast. “I know the scores ain’t showing it, and people feel like we’re missing so many key pieces, but I almost believe you need to really go through the things that we’re really messing up on.” “I think our defense has really things around. Up until that last quarter when they got that touchdown on defense, we only really gave up those two touchdowns in that first quarter. Other than that, we gave up those six points in those other two quarters.” These losses are growing stranger and stranger – Mickey Spagnola, DallasCowboys.com This season for Dallas keeps redefining the word “strange.” In lieu of Texans 34, Cowboys 10. In lieu of the Cowboys losing their fifth consecutive game. In lieu of now 0-5 here at AT&T Stadium after winning 16 consecutive regular-season home games heading into the 2024 season. In lieu of the Cowboys now 3-7, their worst start since COVID 2020 and coming on the heels of three consecutive 12-5 seasons since. And consider the now 7-4 Texans gained just three more yards than the Cowboys and the Cowboys threw for 74 more yards than the Texans. But dang it, with 4 minutes, 16 seconds left in the third quarter of this Monday Night Football game, with Cowboys Hall of Famers Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin on hand, the Cowboys were only trailing in this Texas Showdown, as this game was being billed, 20-13. And that despite the Texans already having rushed for 92 yards, 80 of those belonging to Joe Mixon. And then the roof caved in, and must admit there is a cheap line here for what took place on a high-wind afternoon with the roof actually open some 3½ hours before kickoff, causing the roof to recoil on a perfectly blue, uh, sunny day. This despite still playing without Dak Prescott, DaRon Bland, Brandin Cooks, DeMarcus Lawrence, Marshawn Kneeland and heading into this one without Jourdan Lewis and Hunter Luepke. And then losing tight end Jake Ferguson to a concussion by halftime. Why, the Cowboys were starting Josh Butler at left corner, signed to the 53-man roster prior to the game, his first NFL game appearance; had Israel Mukuamu playing in the slot; and first-year free-agent Princeton Fant, elevated from the practice squad, making his NFL debut at fullback. Michael Irvin: Deion Sanders would ‘100%’ accept Dallas Cowboys job if they draft Shedeur Sanders – Matt Connolly, On3.com Deion Sanders won’t be the next head coach of the Cowboys… right? Over the past week, Paul Finebaum, Adam Schefter, Stephen A. Smith, Dez Bryant and Louis Riddick have discussed the possibility of Deion Sanders landing the Cowboys head coaching job, where perhaps Dallas could draft Shedeur Sanders to once again play for his dad. Cowboys legend Michael Irvin added fuel to the fire on Tuesday, sharing on The Herd with Colin Cowherd that he knows for a fact Deion Sanders would leave Colorado to team up with Shedeur Sanders in Dallas. “I believe 100 percent. And I can tell you, good sources told me that. Great sources have told me that,” Michael Irvin said. “That’s all I can say like that without violating anything else.” Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders played together with the Cowboys from 1995-1999. It’s fair to say that they know each other well. The fact that the Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to a huge deal this past offseason obviously complicates matters, as does the fact that the Cowboys may not draft high enough to land Shedeur Sanders. Still, it’s fun to speculate about the possibility as the 2024 college football season starts to wind down. CeeDee Lamb takes Cowboys’ offensive struggles ‘real personal’ – Tommy Yarrish, DallasCowboys.com With Dak Prescott out for the season, CeeDee Lamb has to step up as the leader on offense. “We were moving the ball up and down the field, but I feel like it’s been our thing all season of getting in the red zone and not scoring,” Lamb said. “Obviously, good teams do it, and we have been failing to do that, and it differentiates the score a lot.” The Cowboys have trailed by 20 or more points in their last six homes games dating back to their loss to Green Bay in the playoffs at the end of last season, an NFL record. With that, Lamb knows his team needs to play better together in order to avoid more big losses, much less on their home turf. “Obviously, everybody is looking to embarrass us, they have their opportunity, when they do, they try to put us out, Lamb said. “We had so much success over the last three years as far as in the regular season… for us, we’ve got to find ways to gel together, play together and finish this thing out.” In the first half, the Cowboys defense gave up 17 points but strung together a turnover and gave the offense