The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde is a classic story that many have read and even more are familiar with. It’s also an apt description of the stark differences between the Cowboys offense and defense, specifically their coaches.
On offense, things are going fairly well. Dak Prescott is approaching the passing yards crown for the first time in his career; Javonte Williams broke 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career; CeeDee Lamb just joined Michael Irvin as the only other player in franchise history with five straight 1,000-yard seasons; and George Pickens is in the midst of the best year of his young career.
Then there’s the defense.
DaRon Bland’s season was ended early when he was placed on injured reserve, and it means he’ll finish with a passer rating allowed of 110.8 and the highest completion rate he’s surrendered since his rookie year. His departure coincided with the return of Trevon Diggs, who is currently yielding a 158.3 passer rating (which is a perfect score for quarterbacks) and is in danger of finishing without an interception for the first time in his career.
Kenneth Murray has been the player Matt Eberflus turns to time after time at linebacker, prioritizing snaps for the former first-round pick instead of getting more time for younger players like Marist Liufau or Shemar James or even ramping up veteran Logan Wilson, who was acquired at the trade deadline. Wilson, in particular, didn’t see the field once on Christmas against the Commanders despite being active, a move that Jerry Jones freely took issue with.
The units as a whole are glaring contrasts to one another, too.
The offense is first in yards, second in percentage of drives that end in points, third in scoring, third in yards per play, fifth in EPA/play, sixth in success rate, and ninth in third-down conversion rate.
The defense is 30th in yards, 32nd in percentage of drives that end in points, 32nd in scoring, 31st in yards per play, 31st in EPA/play, 31st in success rate, and 31st in third down conversion rate.
Everything about the defense has been bad. Most things about the offense have been good. Brian Schottenheimer has crushed his first season calling plays on offense, and the addition of Klayton Adams has paid huge dividends. But the hiring of Eberflus has had the exact opposite effect, and it’s single-handedly cost them a shot at the playoffs, wasting several offensive milestones in the process.
However, the Jekyll/Hyde nature of this coaching staff doesn’t just come down to “Schotty good, Flus bad.” The way these coaches have adjusted to the challenges of the season have also shined a light on their individual abilities.
Early in the year, Schottenheimer had prioritized playing veteran Jalen Tolbert over Ryan Flournoy, but he adjusted that in the last two months and saw Flournoy rise to the occasion. Similarly, his decision to move Tyler Smith out to left tackle in the wake of repeated struggles for backup left tackle Nate Thomas indicated a willingness to try things.
Meanwhile, Eberflus has been hard and rigid in both his schemes and personnel. While he made brief dalliances with higher blitz rates and press man coverage, Eberflus reverted back to his bland “rush four with spot drop zone” tendencies after a few weeks. It hasn’t played into the strengths of his few star players, and Eberflus has also refused to prioritize playing time for the ones who do play well.
Case in point: Murray. One of the highest-targeted linebackers in coverage this year, Murray has routinely been picked on by opposing offenses, and for good reason. He’s also the lowest-graded run defender among all starting linebackers, according to Pro Football Focus, frequently running himself into blockers.
Yet Murray not only leads in snaps among linebackers on the team, but he’s played more than any other Cowboys defender this year. There’s a reason Dallas traded for Wilson, a team captain and tackle machine with the Bengals, yet he’s played fewer snaps than Jack Sanborn, who’s been on injured reserve and hadn’t played a defensive snap since Week 5.
Eberflus has shown a complete lack of interest in making meaningful changes. Schottenheimer, on the other hand, is holding good on his promise to do whatever it takes to win.
One other area in which Schottenheimer has grown is his approach to fourth downs. The rookie head coach admitted earlier this year he’s more conservative than predecessor Mike McCarthy when it comes to fourth-down aggression, and it showed. Over the first 13 weeks of the season, Dallas was 22nd in optimal fourth-down rate, which measures how often a team goes for it when they should.
But he’s changed even that approach. In the last four games, Dallas is fifth in optimal fourth-down rate, having opted for the kick (either field goal or punt) just twice when models supported going for it. The most recent game against the Commanders even saw Schottenheimer go for it at times when the model “recommended” a toss-up between the field goal and going for it.
Perhaps that’s a reflection of Schottenheimer accounting for the depressingly low likelihood of his defense getting stops, which means it’s more of a situational thing than a real philosophy shift, but it’s an adjustment either way. And it’s encouraging to see a head coach who’s willing to change how he approaches the game when things aren’t working.
The same can’t be said for the defensive coordinator, and it’s a big reason why Schottenheimer seems very likely to be in the market for a new one this offseason.
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