When the Cowboys take the field Thursday night in Detroit, they won’t be going up against the offensive juggernaut the Lions have become known for, and that’s not just because the Lions will be missing both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
The Lions lost both coordinators in the offseason, with Ben Johnson taking the Bears job and Aaron Glenn taking the Jets job. Dallas lost to Johnson and beat Glenn, so this game can serve as the tiebreaker in the Dan Campbell Invitational. But those coaches’ departures spurred plenty of offseason debate over how Detroit could survive without them.
On offense, life after Ben Johnson has been a mixed bag.
Campbell replaced Johnson with John Morton, a seasoned coaching veteran who had been with the Lions as a senior offensive assistant in Johnson’s first year as coordinator, assisting with the creation of the offense. But Morton hadn’t called plays since 2017, when he did so for a very bad Jets team.
Early on, Morton’s tenure with the Lions was going considerably better. Over the first five weeks, Morton’s offense was fifth in EPA/play and third in success rate, and Jared Goff was putting up MVP numbers. For a moment, it looked as if Campbell had aced his most consequential hire since becoming head coach.
Then, something changed. A poor showing on the road in Kansas City looked to be a minor setback against an elite defense, but an uneven performance the next week against the Buccaneers left Detroit with questions heading into their bye. A slow start in their next game preceded a loss to the Vikings, their second within the division.
Over that four week span, the Lions went from fifth and third to 19th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. There was no real explanation for why the offense had suddenly fallen off a cliff, but it had. The run game wasn’t eating up yards the way it had been, and Goff was either holding onto the ball far too long or throwing costly interceptions while trying to force something that wasn’t there.
So Campbell took matters into his own hands. Against the Commanders, and without any sort of announcement beforehand, the head coach started calling plays himself.
It wasn’t the first time he’s done it, of course. Campbell’s first year with the Lions saw him take over play-calling from Anthony Lynn – ironically, now with the Commanders – about halfway through the year. He helped lead them to an improved offense and a few wins down the stretch before handing the reins over to Johnson.
Campbell’s first game back in the saddle went very well. The Lions scored 44 points and blew out the Commanders, even while losing LaPorta for the year to an injury. But that was against a Commanders defense that was itself so bad that their head coach, Dan Quinn, took over play-calling recently as well.
Since then, Campbell’s offense has been shut down by the Eagles, exploded against the Giants, and came up just short against the Packers. They’re 2-2 since the change but are seventh in EPA/play and eighth in success rate. So things are trending in the right direction, but the wins aren’t coming as a result.
Neither Morton or Campbell have implemented any real changes to the scheme. The Lions remain an offense whose identity is wrapped up in the run game and their offensive line: Detroit is second in the league in early down run rate (behind only Glenn’s Jets) and they’re second in yards per carry.
The offensive line – which briefly thought it was getting center Frank Ragnow out of retirement this week – has remained sturdy, too; only the Jets have more yards before contact per attempt than the Lions right now. The issue on the ground is a lack of explosives, with only 37 runs of 10+ yards while averaging a meager 3.08 yards after contact per attempt.
The bigger problem has been the pass game, though. Since Campbell has taken over play-calling, Goff is holding the ball longer (2.70 seconds to throw) and getting pressured more (39.2% of dropbacks) than he had been before the change. Just as concerning, he’s had six dropped passes in those four games; Lions pass catchers had just seven drops in the previous eight games.
Now they’re hosting a Cowboys team that’s getting hot, especially on the defensive side, and they’ll be doing so without their top two pass catchers. LaPorta is on injured reserve, while St. Brown has yet to be ruled out but hasn’t practiced all week.
To make matters worse, Khalif Raymond and Brock Wright also have yet to practice this week. Raymond, who was out on Thanksgiving, is the third receiver on the team in production, while Wright has stepped into a starting role in place of LaPorta. The offense is banged up, to say the least, which has made it that much harder to solve their consistency issues.
Dallas has made legitimate improvements on defense as of late, holding both the Eagles and Chiefs to consecutive scoreless quarters in their two most recent games. Matt Eberflus is also plenty familiar with this squad, having faced them twice a year as head coach of the Bears. That will add just one more element to this intriguing matchup.
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