Just two weeks ago, the Cowboys came out of their bye and notched an emotional win over the Raiders on the road. That improved their record to 4-5-1 and improved their odds of reaching the playoffs to a meager 10%. Since then, they’ve ripped off wins against the last two Super Bowl champions in the span of just five days, and their chance to make the playoffs has more than doubled, sitting at 23% according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
To quote Kevin Garnett, anything is possible!
Looking at a winning record for the first time all season, Dallas has hope. At 6-5-1, they’re currently ninth in the NFC, just one spot behind the 7-5 Lions. Coincidentally, the Cowboys travel to Detroit to face the Lions next week. A win there would offer another exponential boost, increasing their playoff odds to a whopping 41% right before a two-game home stand.
Who could’ve imagined such a scenario just a few weeks ago? The list who could is very small, but count Brian Schottenheimer among them. He’s remained steadfast in his belief in this team all season long, and he’s being rewarded for it now.
After a rough start, fans were adamant that Schottenheimer needed to fire Matt Eberflus right away, insisting there was nothing he could do to justify staying around long term. Well, after averaging 0.172 EPA/play allowed over the first half of the year, good for 31st in the league, Eberflus has his unit allowing 0.000 EPA/play in their three games since the bye. That’s tied for 17th right now, though Monday Night Football is still pending in that data set.
Either way, the defense has made a considerable improvement. Adding good players will do that. But Eberflus has tweaked his scheme to incorporate his players’ strengths, too, most notably using more five-man fronts to get Quinnen Williams on the field with Osa Odighizuwa and Kenny Clark. And against both the Eagles and Chiefs, they’ve pitched a shutout for four full quarters.
The offense is another tale of belief.
Few on the outside had faith in Schottenheimer being named head coach. Fewer had faith in him calling the plays. Many were quick to label Schottenheimer a “nepo baby” and argue that he had never had any success at any point in his 25-year career.
Schottenheimer didn’t pay attention to any of it, instead focusing on doing his job to the best of his abilities. He also didn’t focus on all the negativity coming out of Pittsburgh surrounding George Pickens, who just crossed the 1,000-yard mark and is only a tick behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the league-lead in passer rating when targeted.
Schottenheimer didn’t pay attention to the litany of opinions on his running back room, those who insisted Javonte Williams would never amount to anything or even those who claimed he was foolish for playing Williams – or, for that matter, Malik Davis – over rookie Jaydon Blue.
And he certainly didn’t pay attention to all the chatter around Dak Prescott, the longest-tenured starting quarterback. Prescott was ludicrously named the most overrated player in the league this offseason, with many talking heads proclaiming that Dallas was officially out of their championship window.
Schottenheimer continued to believe, and look where it’s gotten him.
Prescott leads the league in passing yards, not to mention QBR. He’s fourth in EPA/play and fifth in CPOE. And he’s in the top five in touchdowns, big time throws, and passer rating despite having the third-most dropped passes and the sixth-most pressures.
Williams has exploded onto the scene, too. He’s on the verge of his first 1,000-yard campaign, ranks fourth in rushing, and has been a bellcow for the Cowboys’ efficient rushing attack all year. He’s second in the league in yards after contact, behind only Jonathan Taylor, and has blown away every expectation from the preseason.
Pickens has been the biggest success story, reaching the elite potential everyone saw in him coming out of the draft while shedding his reputation for causing problems in the locker room and getting into fights on the field.
Meanwhile, Schottenheimer has grabbed hold of the spirit of this team and turned a surefire losing season into a legitimate playoff contender. His play-calling has had the Cowboys offense producing at a very high level, making plays both through the air and on the ground. He’s proven to not only be good at that part of it, but also as a head coach, specifically in the way he’s brought the locker room together and persevered through tragedy.
It’s all coalesced into one simple thing: this Cowboys team can beat anyone. The two best teams from last year just lost to them, so why not? Their next opponent is in a bit of a rut and looking vulnerable, too. Why can’t the Cowboys continue their run? That sense of belief is a direct result of the coaching job from Schottenheimer.
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