When the Raiders made the move this offseason to hire Pete Carroll as their head coach, all heads turned towards the offense. Carroll, one of just three coaches in football history to win a college national title and a Super Bowl, is renowned for his defense but has always been reliant on a good offensive coordinator to carry that side of the ball.
Not to mention the Raiders were severely lacking in offensive talent. Quarterback was a major question mark and, outside of rookie phenom Brock Bowers, the skill players were scarce, to put it lightly. But they had high draft picks and cap space, enough of both to beef up the roster.
Carroll made a great hire, snagging Chip Kelly fresh off the national champion Ohio State Buckeyes to run his offense in Sin City. Kelly’s previous stints in the NFL ended in disaster, but his skill as an offensive play-caller wasn’t the reason for that.
The Raiders also built up some ballers for Kelly. First, they traded for Geno Smith, reuniting the quarterback with the head coach who first brought him to the Seahawks. Then they drafted superstar running back Ashton Jeanty sixth overall and later selected two receivers and two offensive linemen.
At the time, it seemed like a brilliant plan.
Kelly is known for his run schemes. He’s typically built his offenses around the zone run, going back to his Oregon days, but Kelly has always incorporated a wide variety of schemes into his rushing attack. He’ll use gap schemes, pull linemen, run counter, inside or outside, and everything in between. The option – read option and RPO – has also been a staple of Kelly’s offenses over the years.
The two main components for a Kelly offense to thrive are a quarterback who can stay in rhythm with the game plan – as opposed to an improviser who tries to make something out of nothing – and a running back (or committee of backs) who can hit the home run frequently.
Smith fits the bill of the former; over his three full seasons as the Seahawks starter, Smith led the entire league in completion percentage over expected (CPOE). He was quick, precise, and rarely upended the play that was called. Meanwhile, in his final year at Boise State, Jeanty led the nation in runs of 10+ yards with 63; the runner up had 54.
Combine those two with Bowers, who’s effectively a wide receiver in a tight end’s body, and it was easy to envision offensive success for the Raiders. At a bare minimum, the trio of Smith, Jeanty, and Bowers in a Chip Kelly offense presented a fairly high floor.
They’ve torn up the floor in Las Vegas and plummeted to the basement.
Coming into this week, the Raiders rank 29th in yards per play and 31st in points per game. They’re also 31st in EPA/play, 29th in success rate, and 30th in offensive DVOA. Smith has been horrible, currently second in the league in both interceptions and turnover-worthy play rate. He’s the only starting quarterback with more picks than touchdowns, and he’s 22nd in CPOE.
Believe it or not, the run game has been even worse. Jeanty is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, tied for 26th in the league, and only two backs have more fumbles on the year. However, it’s not an indictment of the former Heisman runner up. The Raiders are averaging just 0.86 yards before contact per attempt, and they have the highest rate of runs getting stuffed this year.
Jeanty is actually 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 10th in runs of 10+ yards. He’s still the home run hitter he was in college, but the proverbial ball isn’t making it to the batter’s box in the first place most of the time. Throw in the fact that Bowers missed a stretch of games with an injury and it’s easy to understand why this offense has been so bad.
Enter the Dallas defense.
Matt Eberflus and his unit have been a get-right game for struggling offenses all year long, and nobody needs it more than the Raiders. That said, the Cowboys have several shiny new toys, namely Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. They’re going along with DeMarvion Overshown and Shavon Revel, both of whom are expected to make their return from injury this week.
The showdown between the Cowboys defense and Raiders offense will finally answer the age old question of what happens when a very movable object meets a force that doesn’t understand the concept of a stop. The Cowboys at least have the added benefit of four (essentially) new players on their side, but they remain an unknown commodity until further notice.
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