The last time the Dallas Cowboys took the field, they lost in week nine on Monday Night Football at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Now coming off the bye, the Cowboys are right back to closing out the week of games on Monday night, against a Las Vegas Raiders team that will also have some extra rest with their last game coming on Thursday. The Cowboys looked bad on both sides of the ball for far too much of the game against the Cardinals. As exciting as some of their new trade acquisitions and injury returnees are for the outlook post-bye on defense, the Cowboys offense and team as a whole really needs to re-establish their core players as ones they can consistently count on starting at the Raiders. Las Vegas’ issues were mostly on offense going into a mini-bye of their own, scoring just seven points in a dreadful start from Geno Smith at the Broncos to lose 10-7.
Brian Schottenheimer’s team does not have much benefit of the doubt left at their disposal when it comes to confidently winning games they “should” win. Although they are better statistically compared to the Raiders, the records say the Cowboys have just one more win at 3-5-1 compared to 2-7 for Pete Carroll’s team. Carroll has also won four of his last six games against the Cowboys, all with the Seahawks.
While his Raiders have yet to take on much of the identity of those perennially-contending Seahawks teams, Carroll’s hiring alone was supposed to add a layer of legitimacy the Las Vegas franchise has not had towards their football operation. Carroll will want nothing more than to show they’re taking a step in the right direction in this way with a win in the Raiders final primetime opportunity of the season against the Cowboys and his former offensive coordinator in Schottenheimer.
What do the Cowboys need to do to prevent this from happening and earn yet another shot at trying to win consecutive games for the first time all year? Let’s take a closer look.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Las Vegas Raiders if…
they finish drives in the red zone.
With the Cowboys coming into this game off their first back-to-back losses of the year, the idea of any opponent being a “get right” game for them is a bit laughable for sure. Their most recent loss made Cardinals backup QB Jacoby Brissett look like a top-end starter, so much so that he’s remained the starter in Arizona over Kyler Murray. With the Raiders offense struggling so much, particularly in pass protection, and the Cowboys defensive line getting even more reinforcements with Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, the Cowboys do stand a good chance to dictate this game by making the Raiders one-dimensional and playing to this new defensive strength up front.
The Cowboys offense should cherish the opportunity to make every point they score against the Raiders really matter and complement their defense in a way that will make a real difference. Dallas being able to stay balanced and use all elements of the run, pass, and play-action will go a long way here. The biggest key will be finishing in the red zone though. The Cowboys were 2-4 in the red zone at the Broncos and 1-3 against the Cardinals.
On the flip side for the Raiders, their last two losses were by a combined four points. Losing 30-29 to the Jaguars before that 10-7 loss to the Broncos, as well as losing 25-24 to the Bears in week four, will have the Raiders thinking about flipping their fortunes in one-score games if the Cowboys leave this door open. Conversely, the Raiders have also lost 31-0 to the Chiefs this season (who went 4-5 in the red zone) and 40-6 to the Colts (who went a crazy 6-6 in the red zone). The Cowboys don’t necessarily need to win with style points like this, but they do need to win in the way their roster is constructed to do so. Getting back to leaning on teams in the ground game to limit opponents’ possessions, making them one-dimensional by seeing CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson get back to scoring touchdowns, and winning the turnover margin while playing with the lead are all in play at the Raiders.
Both the Raiders and Cowboys come into this game in the bottom 12 teams for turnover margin, tied at minus four. Finishing drives with the ball in Dak Prescott’s hands on offense, and bringing Geno Smith down to the level he’s played at in other bad losses this season on defense, will give the Cowboys a familiar path to victory in a game that badly need in Las Vegas.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Las Vegas Raiders if…
their linebackers do not make plays.
It is going to take a long time, perhaps the rest of the 2025 regular season, for Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to prove he can still be the right guy for the job long term. The Cowboys have struggled mightily at all three levels of the defense nearly all season. The most unexpected position to struggle, given Eberflus’ past experience in Dallas, was linebacker, but the Cowboys have not been at full strength there either.
The Cowboys will be debuting trade acquisition Logan Wilson from the Cincinnati Bengals against the Raiders, and also have DeMarvion Overshown coming back from last season’s ACL and MCL injury. The days of Kenneth Murray and rookie Shemar James leading the team in snaps at linebacker, like they did against the Cardinals, may be coming to an end. This is also the position group that stands to gain the most from the Cowboys ongoing effort to bolster defensive tackle depth. Their deeper group of tackles, as well as edge defenders that are more of big-bodied run defenders compared to pass rush specialists, should do wonders for preventing offensive linemen from climbing up to the Cowboys’ linebackers and springing big plays on the second and third levels of the defense.
Dallas’ work to make this defensive adjustment and be sound in the front seven will have to start right away on Monday. Raiders running back and first-round pick Ashton Jeanty has yet to find any consistency running the ball, but his best gains have come between the tackles where the Cowboys feel they have their best run defenders now. The Raiders will likely have to test Jeanty running in any and all directions to gain some traction against a Cowboys run defense that still needs to prove they can be stiff before teams don’t try everything and anything to run it against them. This is not the only area where Overshown, Wilson, Murray, James, or Marist Liufau will have to pitch in, as the Raiders best pass catcher is also tight end Brock Bowers.
The Cowboys had a tough time against a similar mismatch-type TE in Trey McBride for the Cardinals, and will have to have a better plan for Bowers in the middle of the field using their linebackers. Bowers had just one catch of 31 yards against the Broncos, but second tight end Michael Mayer was the team’s second leading receiver with three catches. Receiver Tyler Lockett led Las Vegas with five catches for 44 yards, another receiver that thrives in the middle of the field and can make quick work of linebackers for huge run after the catch plays.
One of the best things the Cowboys can get out of this game for both the short- and long-term outlook on defense is much improved play from linebacker. With so many moves and draft picks spent in the trenches on both sides of the ball, the logical next step in an ongoing effort to build a tougher more physical team is to have a strong linebacking corps. If Dallas shows some semblance of this in Las Vegas and makes Geno Smith beat them with regular throws downfield and outside the numbers, the advantage in this game will stay on their side in a must-win game.
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