The old question of “What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?” could not be better to describe the Dallas Cowboys week eight matchup versus the Denver Broncos.
Through seven weeks, the Cowboys offense ranks second in EPA/play, ninth in success rate, third in dropback EPA, and fifth in rush EPA. In the same time frame, the Broncos defense ranks fourth in EPA/play, first in success rate, third in dropback EPA, and 17th in rush EPA. What that tells us is this is going to be a battle for both parties.
The Cowboys have had struggles with the Denver Broncos for the last few decades. It has been 30 years since the Cowboys beat the Denver Broncos and 33 years since the Cowboys have beat the Broncos in Denver. But it’s fair to say this Cowboys offense of 2025 is unlike any offense that has taken the field against the Broncos in quite some time. While the wide receiver/tight end and cornerback matchup will get a lot of the attention with Patrick Surtain II, Riley Moss, and Ja’Quan McMillian lining up against CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson, the matchup in the trenches will likely be the deciding factor in the game.
The Cowboys offensive line will have its hands full on Sunday with the Broncos defensive front. Denver is ranked as one of the best defensive lines in football in terms of pressure rates, sacks, and pass-rush win rates, which could give the Cowboys some problems with Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith, Tyler Booker, and Cooper Beebe (who is eyeing a return from IR) on the injury report this week. Excluding Thursday Night Football, Broncos’ edge rusher Nik Bonitto currently has the third-best pass rush win rate in the NFL and has single-handedly destroyed games for opposing offenses so far this season. Along with Bonitto, Zach Allen, John-Franklin Meyers, and Jonathan Cooper are all forces in the trenches and do a very nice job of creating pressure and stuffing the run up front.
Dak Prescott has been phenomenal this season. In his first seven games, Prescott ranks first in adjusted EPA and it has shown in almost every game the Cowboys have played so far this season. Along with Prescott playing at an MVP-level, Javonte Williams is heading back home to face his former team, after starting off the season posting incredible numbers. The game will likely come down to how those two players take advantage of their opportunities. If Prescott and Williams are able to keep up with the pace they are currently on to start the season, the Cowboys should have no issues winning in Denver for the first time in over thirty years. But if it’s an off day for the Cowboys signal caller and RB1, it could turn into a tough game given the different ways the Broncos can beat you with their defense.
If the Cowboys pull off another win scoring north of 30 points, it will prove that 1) Dak Prescott is truly one of the top three MVP candidates in the National Football League and 2) This team has a chance to make a run.
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