The viability of the 2025 Dallas Cowboys being a team in playoff contention is on the line as the team plays a late afternoon kickoff from AT&T Stadium for the first time in week seven. The Cowboys will stay in either this timeslot or primetime for the following seven weeks after this Commanders game, and it will take a complete team effort to avoid going into this stretch at 2-4-1. If it feels like things have already reached a fever pitch with how much national and local coverage has gone into stating the obvious about how bad the Cowboys defense has been, the sobering news is there’s still room for it to get worse. The Commanders offense presents challenges in all of the areas this defense has looked helpless to stop, making this yet another game the Cowboys will need near flawless execution on offense to win.
The Cowboys defense is trying to play a new zone scheme under Matt Eberflus with a lot of carryover players from Dan Quinn’s non-zone, much more aggressive defense. The Quinn defense is still playing a style that will be familiar to Cowboys fans in this matchup against their former DC, but just how much the Cowboys can take advantage on offense will depend on how many big plays and points their defense is giving up again.
The lasting image from the loss at the Carolina Panthers was the defense getting bullied on a drive that ended with the home team kicking a winning field goal as time expired, but prior to that the offense also had one of its worst sequences of the season to take matters out of their own hands with a punt.
The Cowboys were without both Tyler Booker and CeeDee Lamb, both expected to play against the Commanders. Much like Tyler Smith at left guard had some struggles getting reacclimated to the lineup last week, the rookie Booker may have some similar struggles against a tough defensive front for Washington. Still, with both Lamb and George Pickens on the field together again, the Cowboys can hope to get the ball out of Dak Prescott’s hands to counter this and play ball control through their two star receivers and TE Jake Ferguson.
Let’s get to our weekly look at what could make or break this third divisional game of the season and second at home for the Cowboys, the first of two meetings this season against the Commanders with the latter coming on Christmas Day on the road.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Washington Commanders if…
they can stick with the run game and attack the edges of the Commanders defense.
The Panthers loss for the Cowboys may have been yet another game where the offense was asked to do too much and put in an unfair situation, but the reality is that situation isn’t likely to change in one week. The Cowboys would, of course, welcome their defense putting up more resistance against the Commanders, but the offense is still going to need to execute in every situation at a high level for 60 minutes, something they didn’t do on the road in Carolina.
The Cowboys’ ball control efforts against the Panthers were overly dependent on the interior running game with Javonte Williams, which worked like a charm the prior week at the Jets. The interior of the Panthers defensive line was much more ready for this challenge though, and the Cowboys runs up the middle turned into wasted plays.
When Dallas was aggressive throwing high percentage passes on early downs, they moved the ball much more effectively, but still got stuck between wanting to control possession with the run and needing to pass to keep up. The three drives that ended in punts were just enough to come up three points short, the last one coming late in the fourth quarter in a tie game. That three and out looked much less like the Cowboys identity on offense under Brian Schottenheimer and much, much more like his predecessors Mike McCarthy’s or Kellen Moore’s.
Dallas’ hope against Washington rests in their ability to learn from these tendencies and finish drives with touchdowns against a Commanders defense that’s allowed the third-highest passing yards per attempt and second-most pass plays over 40 yards (only ahead of the Cowboys) this season.
Both of these teams on Sunday are coming off of a loss, and now share a common opponent in the loss column. The Commanders lost a Monday night game at home to the Chicago Bears 25-24, the same Bears team that had even more success offensively against the Cowboys. Bears running back D’Andre Swift was the catalyst for their offense, going for a season high 108 yards at 7.7 YPC on 14 carries. For reference, Swift had 14 carries the week prior against the Raiders and only had 38 yards, and 13 carries for 33 yards against the Cowboys in week three. Ben Johnson’s offense was able to get the best of Quinn’s defense in a familiar way, attacking the edges with speed and forcing the Commanders to tackle in space.
Bears QB Caleb Williams also had 14 of his 17 completions within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, with six of them being behind the line. Chicago had a great plan to mitigate Washington’s pass rush by getting the ball out of Williams’ hands.
If the Cowboys need to take a similar approach with the chemistry of their offensive line being put back together, it may help them not expose their defense just a little bit less. A better outcome though would be the Cowboys holding up long enough in pass protection to push the ball downfield. Quinn’s defense will be hunting for negative plays like they always do, knowing every tackle for loss they get that could lead to a punt is massive given their own opportunity to get the ball back for their offense. The Cowboys countering this aggression with more than just short plays but big chunks both through the air and on the ground with Williams and Jaydon Blue is what they’ll need to come out on top.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Washington Commanders if…
their linebackers can’t contain TE Zach Ertz.
Even with full understanding of what this Cowboys defense is at the moment, and the way they put up little resistance against nearly every opponent, the Commanders depth chart at wide receiver is undoubtedly bleak without Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel. The best receiver for Washington will miss his fourth straight game on Sunday, while Samuel is out after getting injured against the Bears.
The known Cowboys nemesis Samuel, the former 49er who haunted the Cowboys during his time there, led the team in targets in their first two games without McLaurin. Tight end Zach Ertz took over as the team’s leading receiver against the Bears, catching all six of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. One thing to keep in mind is that Ertz is questionable, but most observers think he will play.
Second-year WR Chris Moore has been one of the Commanders’ only threats on the outside without both Samuel and McLaurin, but his season-high three catches against the Bears only brought his 2o25 total to six. This is a passing offense dependent on Jayden Daniels using his dual-threat ability to open up throwing lanes, as well as Ertz being the always reliable veteran in the middle of the field right now.
If ever there was a matchup for the Cowboys secondary to hold their own in, this one is it, even without Trevon Diggs at cornerback. If Dallas’ zone approach can’t keep this unproven cast of Washington receivers in front of them to at least slow down the Commanders a little bit, the belief about this defense being lost may also come with belief for the entire season equally being flushed down the drain. The wild card of this bunch is Ertz though. The Commanders should do everything they can to get Ertz matched up against the Cowboys linebackers. Matt Eberflus has shown no willingness to go away from playing both Kenneth Murray and Jack Sanborn as his starting linebacking duo, and both should be available against the Commanders after Sanborn missed the game at the Panthers.
Pass defense is a weak link for both of these new linebackers to the Cowboys defense, and if Ertz can also draw Donovan Wilson from the safety position in coverage, it could lead to big plays for the Commanders.
Ertz caught 11 of his 13 targets with a touchdown in each game against the Cowboys last season. Dallas prevailed in the road game at Washington with Cooper Rush at quarterback, then lost a completely meaningless season finale at home with Trey Lance at QB when the Commanders took the lead with six seconds left on a Marcus Mariota passing touchdown. These results have a chance to give the Cowboys confidence that Prescott will give them an edge this Sunday, but slowing down the Daniels to Ertz connection is something they must be prepared for on defense.
Allowing Ertz to own the middle of the field could force the Cowboys into not having numbers in the box against the run, allowing both Daniels and the Commanders stable of running backs to have a big day and do what the Cowboys offense is aiming to do controlling this game with the ball in their hands. If this game is going to come down to which quarterback can make the most plays with the talent around them, the advantage on paper goes to Prescott and the Cowboys, but simple things like the communication issues and poor tackling from the Dallas defense must be cleaned up for this advantage to matter in the final result.
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