We are deep enough into the 2025 NFL season to where other teams are starting to focus on the playoff picture. Must be nice!
The Dallas Cowboys hold a 2-3-1 record as cooler weather approaches (at least we have that going on) and have lost to teams thought to be more moribund like the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers which suggests that squads like the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions will have their way with the group.
It is likely that you consider a playoff spot to be doubtful for this group. We are here today to simply assess where the Cowboys stand with regards historical likelihoods. The answer is not great.
This is every single team in Cowboys franchise history (shout out Stathead) to hold two or fewer wins through the first six games of their respective seasons. The tie makes things a bit wonky in this regard, but it is what it is.
We are watching the 15th team of such kind and none of the previous 14 teams made the playoffs which does not bode well.
The NFL is so old though that you can generally find examples to fit any point of hope. This is true with regards to having two wins through the first six games of a season as different teams have made the playoffs while starting that far behind the proverbial eight ball.
All told there are 43 teams in NFL history (once again shout out Stathead) who have begun in this manner and still reached the playoffs. Here are the most recent 20.
Obviously there are no Dallas Cowboys teams on this list, but with regards to this screenshot there is something else missing as well. The vast majority of these teams began with a 2-4 record (there are a few 1-5 starts), but none of them had a tie to this point in their seasons.
Further down the list there are five total teams who had a tie at this point and they all held a 2-3-1 record just like the Cowboys do now.
- 1981 New York Jets
- 1972 San Francisco 49ers
- 1963 Buffalo Bills
- 1962 Houston Oilers
- 1943 New York Giants
This isn’t any kind of advocacy behind the Cowboys’ ability to reach the playoffs, we are simply looking to see how and when this challenge was fully met by someone
They are pretty far up against it as you can see. Barring anything major it is difficult to see them overcoming this start. It has been done before, but that doesn’t really make anyone feel better.
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