When the Cowboys take the field this Sunday, it’ll be their third straight year facing the Panthers in Carolina. Even with a new coaching staff in Dallas, that lends itself to some familiarity with this squad, especially on defense, where defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero has been for all three games.
Evero has been one of the rising stars in the coaching ranks for a while now, viewed by many as a future head coach. He famously turned down the Broncos interim head coaching gig when Nathaniel Hackett was fired in 2022, and instead went to Carolina as the defensive coordinator.
Through his first two years running the Panthers defense, Evero hasn’t had much success. His first year in Carolina, which saw Frank Reich fired midseason, finished with the defense 26th in EPA/play allowed and 32nd in defensive DVOA. Last year, the defense finished 32nd in EPA/play allowed and 30th in defensive DVOA.
That’s not what you want to see, but the Panthers also had a litany of injuries on defense last year. By the end of the year, they had lost seven starters to season-ending injuries, with Pro Bowl nose tackle Derrick Brown going down in the season opener.
Brown is now back in action and leads the team in sacks, and Carolina went to work to upgrade the defensive roster around him: in the offseason, they added six new players that have all become key contributors on that side of the ball. The result: modest improvement, but nothing extraordinary. Carolina ranks 21st in EPA/play allowed and 27th in defensive DVOA.
To understand the defensive struggles, it’s important to understand Evero’s scheme. He’s a Vic Fangio disciple through and through, coaching under him with the 49ers and later becoming right-hand-man to fellow Fangio disciple Brandon Staley while with the Rams. As such, Evero’s scheme is built on playing with a light box and committing defenders to pass coverage, routinely using two deep safeties to keep everything in front of the defensive backs.
As with any scheme, there are pro’s and con’s to the approach. Evero’s scheme fundamentally asks a lot from his defensive line and safety groups. The defensive line must generate pass rush to force quarterbacks into throwing shorter passes, as well as hold their own against the run with such a light box, while the safeties have to trigger downfield from far away to make plays after the catch and keep those short passes short.
Therein lies the problem for the Panthers.
Nobody has fewer sacks than them, and their pressure rate is tied with the aforementioned Staley’s Saints unit for second-worst in the league. Opposing receivers are averaging 3.8 yards of separation at the catch point against this defense, tied for fourth-most in the league; again, that’s a feature of the coverage scheme, but it’s a problem when the Panthers are also giving up 513 yards after the catch.
Against the run, the defensive line hasn’t been getting it done either. They’re stuffing the run on just 12.5% of run plays, sixth-lowest in the league. They’re now going up against a Cowboys offense that has the lowest rate in the league of runs that get stuffed. That hardly bodes well for them.
So when the defensive line can’t get pressure or stop the run, and the coordinator refuses to help them out with blitzes or loading the box more – Carolina ranks in 25th in blitz rate and 27th in stacked box rate – what else is supposed to happen? The Panthers know their scheme well by now, but Evero isn’t getting adequate enough production to run the scheme effectively. Sooner or later, something has to give.
This week may be their most challenging yet. Dallas is red-hot offensively, torching defenses through the air and on the ground. They’re averaging 187 passing yards a game just on plays where there’s no pressure and 7.3 yards per carry against light boxes. Things don’t look good for this Carolina defense right now.
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