It’s a weird week when the most exciting football game the NFL had to offer featured two teams that walked away without a win. Yet, that’s the case after a thrilling tie (an oxymoron if there ever was one) between the Cowboys and Packers, one that’s prompting a sense of optimism in Dallas.
How warranted is that optimism? Let’s take a dive into the advanced data around this team, which reveals a sort of Jekyll and Hyde factor that’s marred the Cowboys’ season to this point.
Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance
DVOA |
DVOA Rank |
DVOA Rank Previous Week |
DAVE |
DAVE Rank |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 15.1% | 5th | 10th | 3.8% | 11th |
| Defense | 29.7% | 32nd | 32nd | 5.2% | 27th |
| Special Teams | 5.9% | 5th | 10th | 0.9% | 12th |
| Overall | -8.8% | 22nd | 23rd | -0.6% | 18th |
Offense and special teams are doing amazing. The latter isn’t the least bit surprising, as Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin are the best in the league at their respective roles, and a blocked extra point returned for two points boosts the efficiency numbers. The offense is perhaps a bigger surprise, but still encouraging.
The defense, though… woof. How bad is this defense? So bad that the Cowboys’ overall efficiency grade ranks them as the 22nd best team in the league despite their offense and special teams being fifth. That’s a step up from last week, so baby steps are apparently in order for Matt Eberflus.
Pivoting to the EPA-based team tiers, the story is pretty much the same. The defense saw a slight uptick in their EPA/play allowed, if you can believe it, but they’re still languishing at the bottom. The offense moves further to the right, establishing themselves as one of the league’s best even with CeeDee Lamb on the sideline.
Speaking of…
Offense
Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Offensive DVOA | 15.1% | 5th |
| Pass DVOA | 25.6% | 11th |
| Run DVOA | 11.2% | 4th |
| EPA/Play | 0.143 | 4th |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.202 | 8th |
| EPA/Rush | 0.026 | 5th |
Who would have thought the Cowboys offense would actually improve in virtually every efficiency metric in their first game without Lamb, who’s sidelined with a high ankle sprain? That’s exactly what they did, with the passing game making a huge leap thanks to some really intuitive play-calling from Brian Schottenheimer.
Meanwhile, the run game is officially for real in Dallas. Javonte Williams is fifth in yards after contact per attempt and still leads the league in rush success rate. After years of the Cowboys never knowing when they could rely on the ground game, Schottenheimer has answered every question through four weeks.
Dak Prescott’s Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| QBR | 74.2 | 4th |
| EPA/play | 0.216 | 9th |
| CPOE | 6.5 | 7th |
| EPA+CPOE Composite | 0.163 | 8th |
| Success Rate | 48.1% | 16th |
It’s officially time to start the Dak Prescott MVP train, y’all. Yes, it’s early, but Prescott is playing out of his mind right now. He currently leads the league in passing yards while sitting third in completion rate, and he’s tied with Matthew Stafford for most big time throws in the league. Just look at how he’s handling pressure versus the rest of the league right now:
This week, with Lamb on the sideline, he posted a 124.9 passer rating and a 0.536 EPA/play, both of which ranked third in the league for the week. Given the supporting cast he had, and the defense he was facing, that’s pretty darn impressive. If Prescott continues to play like this, he’ll be the MVP frontrunner in no time.
Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Pressure Rate | 30.6% | 8th |
| Adjusted Sack Rate | 4.3% | 7th |
| Pass Block Win Rate | 66% | 8th |
| Run Block Win Rate | 73% | 9th |
| Adjusted Line Yards | 5.24 | 3rd |
Going back to that graphic about Prescott under pressure for a moment, the quarterback has a 9.2% pressure to sack ratio. That’s fifth-best in the NFL and, considering Dallas has three starters in the top 10 at their position in pressures allowed, it displays how Prescott is bailing out his line from some truly dreadful pass protection.
Brock Hoffman, who made his second start of the season this week, is already second among all centers in pressures allowed. Only two linemen at any position have allowed more pressures than Tyler Guyton so far. The run blocking has been great, but the pass protection is a really big issue that Prescott is masking beautifully for now.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Defensive DVOA | 29.7% | 32nd |
| Pass Defense DVOA | 60.8% | 32nd |
| Run Defense DVOA | -4.6% | 22nd |
| Pressure Rate | 32.2% | 21st |
| Pass Rush Win Rate | 30% | 27th |
| Run Stop Win Rate | 30% | 19th |
| EPA/Play | 0.261 | 32nd |
| EPA/Dropback Allowed | 0.442 | 32nd |
| EPA/Rush Allowed | -0.014 | 25th |
And then there’s the defense.
As mentioned before, the Cowboys got better this week in most defensive efficiency metrics, but not enough to release themselves from the cellar. Matt Eberflus saw brief glimpses of what this defense should look like, but the Packers were still able to move the ball at will far too often.
The pass rush, especially, is an issue. With four weeks of data to go off of, and the debut of Jadeveon Clowney, Dallas is 21st in pressure rate and 27th in pass rush win rate. Only Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa have generated double-digit pressures, and James Houston just became the first player to hit multiple sacks. Odighizuwa leads the team with a 16.8% pass rush win rate, which is good for 35th in the league. This unit simply has to be better.
Cowboys Pass Coverage
Targets |
Completions |
Completion Rate |
Passer Rating Allowed |
ADOT When Targeted |
Air Yards Allowed |
Yards After Catch |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Diggs | 8 | 6 | 75.0% | 156.3 | 22.8 | 118 | 18 |
| DaRon Bland | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 127.9 | 14.0 | 53 | 29 |
| Kaiir Elam | 20 | 17 | 85.0% | 155.0 | 12.9 | 181 | 53 |
| Reddy Steward | 17 | 15 | 88.2% | 98.0 | 3.0 | 4 | 124 |
| Malik Hooker | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | 158.3 | 20.3 | 72 | 40 |
| Donovan Wilson | 12 | 8 | 66.7% | 99.3 | 13.1 | 86 | 20 |
| Jack Sanborn | 11 | 10 | 90.9% | 109.8 | 7.5 | 57 | 57 |
| Marist Liufau | 7 | 6 | 85.7% | 108.9 | 3.4 | 6 | 64 |
| Kenneth Murray | 21 | 17 | 81.0% | 98.2 | 2.6 | 24 | 135 |
| Damone Clark | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 84.2 | 4.7 | 17 | 21 |
DaRon Bland’s return did not magically improve the secondary, in case anyone was wondering. Green Bay actually went after Bland rather aggressively, targeting him eight times; Jordan Love had a ridiculous 130.7 passer rating when throwing at Bland.
Reddy Steward, who got the start over Trevon Diggs, also saw eight targets and gave up a completion every single time. There’s a lot to like about Steward’s physicality, but his pass coverage hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. Though, to be fair, nobody on this defense can say that right now.
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