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Cowboys need dramatic improvement as top NFL offenses prove run-pass balance matters – Reid Hanson, The Cowboys Wire
There is a lot of excitement building for how Brian Schottenheimer’s offense will look at training camp, but so much of it still comes down to how much Dallas improves the running game.
It appears teams that ran the ball well had an inside track on the postseason. So, the Dallas Cowboys just need to run the ball more in 2025 to increase their playoff odds, right?
Not so fast. Running the ball for the sake of running ball does little good for a team’s playoff hopes. In fact, an inefficient ground game comes at the opportunity cost of a more efficient passing game. Stubborn play calling would then actually hurt a team’s playoff chances.
Rushing the ball is a tried-and-true pathway to success, provided it’s efficient enough to warrant its heavy usage. Additionally, “heavy usage” doesn’t mean it’s now more predominant than the passing game or even balanced with the passing game. It just means it’s carved out a bigger role than what has been typical in recent years.
Based on nfelo numbers for 2024, the Eagles had the highest pass rate in the NFL. Given their success on the ground, it’s hard to fault them for it. Philadelphia averaged +0.056 EPA rushing compared to +0.165 EPA passing. Passing was still more efficient, but the margin was narrower than most teams.
Since situations typically dictate run-pass play calling on third downs, RBSDM calculates early-down balance separately. On early downs the Packers and Eagles led the NFL in rushing rate (57.3 and 53.7 respectively). As one may surmise, both teams were extremely successful rushing it on early downs, thus justifying its abnormal usage.
The next three teams on the list are evidence that it’s an efficient rushing attack that leads to success instead of simply rushing for the sake of rushing. Tennessee, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh finished third, fourth and fifth in early down rushing rate. They didn’t rush because they were good at it but rather, they rushed because their quarterback play was abysmal, offering negative EPA output through the air. This is a situation a healthy Dak Prescott-led offense has never had since the Cowboys’ passing game has always ranked among league leaders in EPA efficiency.
10) What to expect from Schotty’s offense? – Staff, DallasCowboys.com
The Cowboys offense getting their best play makers the ball in a wider variety of ways has been a long time coming, with that pressure now squarely on a first-year head coach.
Nick: I think you’re going to see this team run the football a lot more. Yeah, we’ve heard that before with Mike McCarthy but even his track record didn’t suggest that he’d call the plays to run the ball a lot. And that’s pretty much how it turned out as well.
But I do think, when you look at Schottenheimer’s history and the fact that his teams have finished in the Top 10 in rushing five times when he’s been the play-caller, it suggests that he will put a focus on that. Ok, so don’t ask me who will be running it – because it’s really a three-man race at this point and I have no clue who’s going to prevail as the starter. It might be a ‘ride the hot hand’ type of situation. But I’m expecting the Cowboys to run downhill as much as possible. The drafting of Tyler Booker is indicative of that kind of style. And when they want to help Dak and the offense succeed, having a solid to good running game is the first start. Don’t forget that Tony Romo’s best season came in 2014 when he finished third in the MVP voting and DeMarco Murray rushed for over 1,800 yards and was the Offensive Player of the Year. In this league, you can do both. Just because Dak is getting $60 million per year doesn’t mean they can’t run it.
Kurt: Looks like we should expect movement, disguise and tempo. At least that’s what Schottenheimer has been promising thus far, saying, “I’m a big believer in shifts and motions to distort things. … We’re going to do a great job of marrying our runs and our passes and make those two the same.” And that should include more RPOs and play-action. Over his career, Dak Prescott has completed 72.3 percent of his passes for a 100.6 passer rating on RPO plays. On non-RPO plays, he’s at 66.5 and 98.0, respectively. Likewise, he’s also been better working off play-action. Throw in more motion and the talent Schottenheimer and Prescott now have to work with on offense, and I think it’s safe to say this should be a fun group to watch.
The Dallas Cowboys could use some help at 2 positions – Shane Taylor, Inside The Star
It didn’t take long into last year’s training camp to realize the Cowboys would be thin at defensive tackle, and they could have the same issue this time around.
Defensive Tackle
It is Osa Odighizuwa and everyone else at defensive tackle. He is the only guy today that I trust.
Defensive ends and pass rushers do not count. In terms of just stuffing up the middle like you are supposed to do as a tackle, nobody else I trust.
Especially with how much the Cowboys have struggled to stop the run in recent years.
The biggest moves they made were drafting Jay Toia in the seventh round of this year’s draft and adding Solomon Thomas in free agency.
Mazi Smith has got to make the biggest leap in the history of mankind or I have a very strong feeling this will be his last season as a Dallas Cowboys.
The front office missed on that one bad.
The issue is when you look at the free agent market this late into the summer at defensive tackle, the best player you see on this list is probably Quinton Jefferson.
‘I want to play this year’ – Former DPOY could reunite with Dallas Cowboys, but he just made it clear it won’t be an easy task – Mauricio Rodriguez, A to Z Sports
The Cowboys also need help at cornerback, and it seems like veteran Stephon Gilmore’s name is never going away as a potential reunion.
As of right now, DaRon Bland is in line to start—potentially in the slot based on where he lined up during Cowboys OTAs and minicamp—and while we have some early favorites to join him on the defensive backfield, everything else is in the air.
But there’s a chance the Cowboys get some outside help before the start of the 2025 NFL season. And if they do, one of the top options is reuniting with former All-Pro and 2019 Defensive Player of the Year: Stephon Gilmore.
Stephon Gilmore is looking for ‘the right situation’ to play in 2025
Stephon Gilmore was on The Money Down Podcast over the weekend and while most of the show focused on the veteran’s story, he was inevitably asked about his plans for the year. And while he left not doubt he wants to keep his career going, he also made it clear he’s being picky when it comes to choosing where he’s headed to next.
“Yeah, I want to play this year, it’s just got to be the right situation,” Gilmore told The Money Down Podcast. “It’s got to be the right situation for me. I’m not just gonna sign anywhere [. . .] I still love the game. I still can contribute. It’s just got to be the right place.”
Could the Cowboys be the right team for Gilmore?
It’s not clear what Gilmore means by the right situation. It could very well be all about the financials of the deal. In that case, the Cowboys are likely not going to live up to his expectations but they could do just enough. Gilmore took under $5 million on the Minnesota Vikings’ cap last year.
Where the Cowboys could have a legit advantage at landing Gilmore is in playing opportunity. The former DPOY would be an instant upgrade to the starting lineup even though his coverage slightly declined in 2024.
Data suggests George Pickens will be what Dak Prescott needs to spark Cowboys offense – Dan Rogers, Blogging The Boys
The George Pickens trade continues to look good no matter how it’s broken down.
The years 2017, 2022, and 2024 repeatedly stand out like a sore thumb for Dak. What’s going on in those years?
If we suspect lack of weapons is playing a big role in that, how do those years stack up to the others in terms of wide receiver talent? Sure enough, there is another cutoff when it comes to the total yards of the team’s second wide receiver.
Terrance Williams, Noah Brown, and Jalen Tolbert are the three lowest WR2 producers over Prescott’s career, all under 650 yards for the year.
The Cowboys have an alpha in CeeDee Lamb, and now, after the trade for George Pickens, they’ll have one of the better WR2s in the league. Pickens has a 17-game average of over 1,000 yards over his career, and that number is over 1,100 yards if you throw out his “measly” 801-yard rookie season.
When the quarterback makes $60 million per year, people have high expectations. And rightfully so. But a QB is still one player, and he needs help if the team is going to make any serious noise. With Pickens, Dak has that help. And barring this ordeal blowing up in the Cowboys’ face, Pickens should be able to deliver some top-end WR2 help that could once again propel this offense up the ranks.