Score 30+ points per game in 2025 and Dallas will almost certainly make the playoffs

It is going to be important for the Cowboys to establish an offensive identity.

One interesting quirk of the 2024 Cowboys season is that the team lost every single game in which the opponent scored 27 points or more. The 2024 opponents scored 27 or more points in nine games and the Cowboys were 0-9 in those games. When the opponents scored 26 or fewer points, the Cowboys were 8-1.

So how can the Cowboys avoid a repeat this year?

One option is to hope that a defense that ranked 31st last year in points allowed suddenly transforms into a top 10 unit and holds every opponent to no more than 26 points.

Another, and possibly better, option is to look to your offense to score more, which is not as far-fetched as it may sound.

Before the injuries and a head coach who didn’t want to “light the scoreboard up” derailed the Cowboys offense in 2024, the Cowboys were one of the most prolific scoring teams in the league. In fact, between 2021 and 2023, the Cowboys scored more points than any other team in the NFL. They led the league in scoring in 2021 (530 points, 31.2 points per game), ranked third in 2022 (467, 27.5), and again led the league in 2023 (509, 29.9).

Why shouldn’t the team get back to its high-scoring ways in 2025, especially with the addition of WR George Pickens? Tony Romo weighs in:

“That’s a big trade. Having him and Ceedee together, that’s a gamechanger.

If you remember when they had Amari, it makes it very difficult to focus on one player when you have two superstars out there. And I feel like if you have two guys like that out there it just opens up the offense quite a bit.

But why open up the offense, as Romo says? Because there are not that many teams in the NFL that can keep pace with an offense that consistently puts up 30+ points. The Cowboys’ record over the last five years in games where they scored 30+ points: 30-4. If you’re looking for a shortcut to the playoffs, scoring 30+ points per game would be a convenient way.

Since realignment in 2002, 32 teams have averaged more than 30 points per game (480 points per season until 2020, 510 points since 2021), and all but one of those teams made the playoffs. Here are the last 10 teams to do so:

And all else being equal, had the Cowboys scored 30 points in every game last year, they’d have had an 11-5-1 record.

Will the Cowboys be able to average 30+ points per game again in 2025? If they do, a playoff berth is a given. In fact, teams last year were 122-17 when scoring 30 points or more for an .878 winning percentage. Applying that winning percentage to a 17-game schedule gives you a cool 15-2 record.

And you know what doesn’t matter when you score 30 points per game? Your defense.

Every year in Dallas, there will be fans waiting for a return of the Doomsday Defense, or at least a reasonable facsimile of that defense. But today’s Cowboys are about as far removed from a Doomsday Defense as they can be, and that’s not an indictment in any form, it’s simply a fact. Every team in the NFL has to figure out which side of the ball it wants to emphasize more, and in Dallas it’s offense first, second, and third.

Philosophically, the Cowboys are built to be a team that wins by outscoring you. The defense in turn works best when the offense has established a lead and the defense can pin its ears back and attack the opposing offense.

The question is, can the Cowboys live up to those expectations?

It’s early days still, and Dallas is flying a bit under the radar in terms of expectations for 2025, but the 2025 Cowboys could have a sneaky good offense:

• Dak Prescott is back healthy and could pick up where he left off in 2023
• The offensive line, with three first-round picks, might be as good as it has been since they had a healthy Travis Frederick
• With the addition of Pickens, the team could have it’s first 1,000-yard receiving duo since 2019, with a Pro Bowl tight end on top
• McCarthy’s caveman offense along with his abysmal play-calling and kindergarten time management is gone
• Possibly the best special teams trio in the league for additional support

Frankly, if the Cowboys don’t finish at least among the Top 5 in points scored, I’d consider that a big disappointment. They were specifically built to do just that, and barring injuries, there is no reason why the 2025 team should not pick up where the 2023 team left off and be one of the top scoring offenses in the league.

If they’re not, the Cowboys will have to do some serious soul-searching about why they can’t get it done.