Draft Jeanty? That’s not the question Cowboys should be asking themselves

There are two main camps when it comes to Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and the Dallas Cowboys, who own the 12th overall pick in the upcoming draft. One school of thought says he’s an electrifying ballcarrier who runs with power and strength and almost otherworldly balance. He doesn’t seek out contact, but he breaks tackles at an astonishing clip.

But despite the just-turned-21-year-old having posting the second-best rushing season in college football history, there’s still a vocal contingent of draftniks who scream, “Never draft a running back in the first round!”

So which is it? Is Jeanty the “generational” talent that truly warrants a Day 1 pick? Or should Dallas still feel so burned by the way Ezekiel Elliott’s career flamed out that they wait until later rounds to get a cheaper- but also less dynamic- backfield contributor just to save themselves the headache?

“Is Jeanty worth the 12th pick?” probably isn’t the right question, and it’s doubtful the Cowboys brass is really asking that. The Frisco, Tex. kid will light up the league no matter who selects him. The real question isn’t about what Jeanty can do in 2025… or 2026, 2027, or even 2028.

It’s about what the team that takes him does in 2029.

To illustrate, let’s take a look at every running back that’s been picked in the first round over the past 10 drafts. Let’s examine what they’ve done on the field: their rushing and receiving yards per season over the life of their five-year rookie contracts (or at least so far, in several cases), their yards-per-carry average, and their touchdowns scored per season. And let’s also see who’s stayed with the team that drafted them for five full seasons after being drafted.

The dreaded early washout

Dec 29, 2019; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (26) runs the ball while Miami Dolphins linebacker Trent Harris (97) defends during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Arguably, the worst-case scenario is to spend a first-round draft pick on a running back and then not get five full years out of him. Of the 14 backs listed above, only three didn’t make it through a fifth season with the team that selected them.

The Jaguars declined Leonard Fournette’s fifth-year option and waived him after just three seasons. After an injury-plagued third year in New England, the Patriots traded Sony Michel just before the 2021 season. And following four largely underwhelming campaigns, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was technically with Kansas City for the start of his fifth season but did not play a down for the Chiefs in 2024. He was waived in December.

Obviously, there’s no way to know for sure if Jeanty plays out his rookie deal with the team that takes him; the teams mentioned above couldn’t have foreseen bailing early on their Day 1 running backs. It’s a risk with every college prospect. Notably, Jeanty logged a hefty 750 carries in just three seasons at Boise State. He’s proven to be a workhorse, but he’ll come into the league with mileage.

The all-important 2nd contract

Dec 27, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Of those 14 backs above, four are currently still on their rookie deals. Of the remaining ten, only three saw a commitment beyond their initial contract by the team that drafted them.

Fournette, Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Rashaad Penny, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon were all with new teams to start their sixth season. Michel retired before Year 6.

The three that remained with their original club? Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott. But not all of them were given a second contract… and none of them stayed as long as expected.

Is a 2nd RB contract worth paying?

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – SEPTEMBER 09: Saquon Barkley #26 of the New York Giants runs with the ball in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at MetLife Stadium on September 9, 2018 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

All three of those ballcarriers provide an interesting wrinkle to the discussion. Most teams (at least lately) get out from under their early-round running backs before they cash in on an exorbitant second contract. Again, there’s a real gamble here for the organization.

Christian McCaffrey was back with the Panthers to start his sixth season, but the team elected to trade him for multiple draft picks in mid-October of 2022 as they looked at a large-scale rebuild of their roster. McCaffrey has been an absolute monster with the 49ers when healthy, but he’s also dealt with some injury issues; he played in just four games in 2024.

The Giants kept Saquon Barkley on their 2023 roster only by using a franchise tag on him for his sixth season. Negotiations beyond that got nasty and went south in a hurry, though, and he signed with the rival Philadelphia Eagles, where he promptly turned in one of the greatest rushing seasons in NFL history.

Ezekiel Elliott used a summer holdout to force a $90 million second deal out of the Cowboys in 2019. His on-the-field performance took a steady nosedive not too long after, and he was released well before his contracted six seasons were up. A mediocre one-year stint in New England followed, and an attempted comeback tour in Dallas was a total bust.

Carolina, the Giants, and Dallas all brought their stud RBs back, but none saw it through in the long term. Paying an enormous second contract obviously blew up in the Cowboys’ faces with Elliott’s declining stats, and New York’s tag strategy and cheapness only offended Barkley to the point of him walking away. The Panthers may have some regret watching McCaffrey succeed in San Francisco, but he was never going to deliver those same numbers in Carolina, and at least the team got some draft capital for him.

What to expect from a first-round RB

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) makes a catch for a touchdown against Green Bay Packers during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024.

None of this is to necessarily say that the Cowboys shouldn’t use the 12th overall pick on Jeanty. While a few of the 14 RBs taken on Day 1 over the past decade were, statistically speaking, probably not at all worth the high selection, the numbers tend to show that a ballcarrier taken in the first round delivers, at least out of the gate.

Jeanty certainly looks to be a surer bet than Edwards-Helaire, Penny, and Michel. He’s also expected to come off the board relatively early in Round 1, while those other three were picks 32, 27, and 31, respectively. So throw their stats out for the moment. The other 11 running backs here all averaged (or are averaging) 1,391 scrimmage yards per season to start their careers. And they’re scoring, on average, about 10 touchdowns a year.

Running backs are paid to crank out yards, move the chains, and score touchdowns. Most first-round running backs do just that at a fairly high clip, and- given the financial structure of rookie contracts- for a relative bargain.

Conclusion

Dec 6, 2024; Boise, ID, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during the first half against the UNLV Rebels at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images

Almost 1,400 scrimmage yards and 10 end zone trips per year. (And that’s an average.) If the Cowboys could be even relatively sure that Jeanty would turn in that kind of production every season of his rookie deal, isn’t that a slam-dunk?

The team has a clear and obvious need at the position, and Jeanty would immediately fill it… at probably close to an elite level. Turn in his card at No. 12, bring Rico Dowdle back for what would likely be small potatoes, and stop thinking about Dallas’s RB room.

The real question is not, “Is Jeanty worth the 12th pick?” He is, and no one should lose much sleep if that’s the way the Cowboys ultimately go. He would almost certainly provide Gurley/Elliott/Robinson vibes for the next four to five years.

The real trick, recent history shows, is to not be so dazzled by his first five seasons that you talk yourself into shelling out second-contract money. Let another team pay through the nose for what he did as a youngster in Dallas. If Jeanty turns out to be the next McCaffrey or Barkley and really explodes somewhere else in his sixth or seventh season, them’s the breaks. But odds are he won’t.