Who do you think wins between Dallas and Carolina?
The Dallas Cowboys snapped their win streak with a boneheaded loss at home to the Cincinnati Bengals and now go on the road to face a scrappy Carolina Panthers team. Carolina is just 3-10, but they’re 2-3 in their last five games, and those losses have come by a combined 12 points. That’s a major factor in the Panthers being slightly favored to win this one, but our writers don’t necessarily agree with that.
When Carolina has the ball
Simulated pressures for days
Bryce Young has been playing drastically better football since he came back into the starting lineup, and the young quarterback has been poised under pressure. The Panthers don’t exactly have a ton of weapons in the passing game, but Young has returned with a better feel for how to find his guys.
The Mike Zimmer defense should give him trouble, though. Since Micah Parsons returned from injury, Dallas is sixth in EPA/dropback, and a big part of that is how creative Zimmer can get with his simulated pressure looks now. Zimmer should be able to make Young’s head spin at least enough times to force some errors in this one.
When Dallas has the ball
Run, Rico, run
Last week, the Bengals came into the game with the second-worst scoring defense. Only the Panthers were worse, and they’re still giving up the most points per game. A big part of that is their run defense, which ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per game; their 170.1 yards per game is 23 yards per game more than the 31st run defense.
The Cowboys have stabilized their run game ever since they started consistently feeding Rico Dowdle, and last week he became the first Cowboy in two years to record consecutive 100+ rushing games. He should be able to hit three straight against this struggling Carolina front.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (8-5):
I was thinking this was the only remaining game that Dallas could win, but I think I’m changing my mind. The loss of Overshown might be too big for the defense, and I’m not sure the offense can make up the slack. Add in the way they lost on Monday night, and it feels like the Panthers should win.
Panthers win, 23-19.
Matt Holleran (8-5):
Before the season this was a game almost everyone circled as a guaranteed Cowboys win. As we now know, nothing is guaranteed with this team and it’s actually the Panthers not the Cowboys who are favored to win this matchup. Carolina has played much better football since inserting young QB Bryce Young back into the starting lineup.
Carolina’s defense has also been much improved, allowing 22 points or fewer in three of their last five games. After a deflating loss on a short week I think Dallas comes into this game sleepwalking a bit. The Cowboys fall into an early defective that they’re unable to climb out of, even with a strong second half.
Give me the Panthers, 24-17.
Jess Haynie (10-3):
Between the way they lost to the Bengals and the awful DeMarvion Overshown injury, this last one might have broken the Cowboys’ spirit. Now they have to go on the road on a short week, plus the Panthers have been showing heart lately. This last little flurry of fight from Dallas was cute, but the second wind is now probably out of their sails.
Panthers 30, Cowboys 20.
Mike Poland (6-7):
The Cowboys have beaten the Panthers seven out of the last ten meetings. Yes, the Panthers of late have looked much better than how they started, but injuries are creeping in for them again. Two defensive backs, two of their linebackers and one pass rusher are impacted by injury this week.
That’s on a defense that has the fewest pressures, allowed the rushing yards and has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns. It’s a tough matchup for the Panthers that has a rapidly ascending running back and CeeDee Lamb.
Cowboys win 27-17.
Dana Bartholomew (10-3):
Although the Panthers are favored over the Cowboys as they have been putting up some tough fights against formidable opponents in their past few losses, there are some matchups in this game that heavily favor the Cowboys. The main one being Rico Dowdle vs. the Panthers’ run defense who is dead last in the NFL. If the Cowboys are able to exploit this match up while the defense keeps the Panthers’ scoring to a minimum, they should be able to defy the odds on Sunday and return to Dallas with a win.
Give me the Cowboys to win this one, 20-17.
Brian Martin (9-4):
Watching the Panthers nearly upset the Eagles last week and then lose by only a field goal to both the Buccaneers and Chiefs in the weeks prior, this isn’t a team as bad as their record suggests. They are actually favored in this Week 16 matchup with the Cowboys and have the home field advantage.
Because of all that, give me Carolina, 20-17.
RJ Ochoa (9-4):
Last week I thought it was insane that Cincinnati was as favored as they were against Dallas and then the Cowboys had the audacity to let the Bengals cover. In spite of this, I feel on some level like Dallas played the better game. Obviously they lost which opened the door (this is on them to be clear) for criticism against them and I think this has warped our current perception of them a little.
Give me the Cowboys over the Panthers, a team who is certainly a little hot right now, by a somewhat comfy margin.
David Howman (8-5):
Neither of these teams are good, but they’ve both been playing feisty football lately to make this a surprisingly compelling matchup. I genuinely like what I’ve been seeing from Bryce Young lately, but facing off against a Mike Zimmer defense with Micah Parsons is a PhD level test for any quarterback.
I see the Cowboys defense making a couple big plays, just enough to keep the team in it, and another strong performance from Rico Dowdle anchoring the offense enough to keep Brandon Aubrey busy, including a game winner.
Cowboys win, 23-20.
