Whether you’re focused on Dallas’ 2025 draft pick or still holding on to playoff hopes, we’ve got something for you in this week’s rooting guide.
If you’re still hoping to see the Cowboys in the 2024 playoffs, last week’s games nearly closed the door on that dream. For those already focused on the future, including Dallas’ 2025 draft pick, it was a step in the right direction. How might the Week 15 schedule further push the team toward either goal?
Week 14 was a disaster for those still clinging to fantasies about the current season. Not only did Dallas lose their game in heartbreaking fashion, but outcomes throughout the NFC only made a postseason push more unlikely. A win by the Saints, who hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas, put one more team between the Cowboys and the last wild card spot.
While Dallas can still finish above .500 if they win out over the last four games, that record probably isn’t good enough to make the playoffs in this year’s NFC. The current seventh seed, Washington, would have to go 1-3 the rest of the way. Even if that happens, you’d need all of the Rams, Falcons, Cardinals, 49ers, and Saints to drop below the Cowboys in overall record. The odds of all of that happening make it barely worth talking about.
Still, for you adorable dreamers, here’s what you need to see happen to boost Dallas’ chances in the NFC playoff race:
At this point, most of us are on to 2025 and the work Dallas needs to do to return to competitive status. Part of that will be in the upcoming NFL draft, so how these last four weeks of the season impact the draft order feels more relevant now.
After last week’s results, here’s the latest projected order for next April:
- New York Giants (2-7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
- New England Patriots (3-10)
- Carolina Panthers (3-10)
- Cleveland Browns (3-10)
- New York Jets (3-10)
- Tennessee Titans (3-10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-9)
- New Orleans Saints (5-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
- Dallas Cowboys (5-8)
Tiebreakers in draft ordering are different from what we think of with division and playoff races. Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker, which is why the Saints and Bengals would have better picks than Dallas even though they have head-to-head wins over the Cowboys. But because the season isn’t over yet, the strength-of-schedule figures currently in play will change.
If Dallas wants to secure a higher draft pick, losing this Sunday to the Panthers wouldn’t hurt. While we don’t expect the Cowboys to start blatantly tanking, a short week coming off Monday night and a road game could give Carolina the edge. It would close the standings gap between them to just one game, plus pull Dallas closer to that slew of other 3-10 teams.
What else from this week’s games could help the Cowboys’ draft position?
Titans over Bengals
While Cincinnati is currently tied with Dallas, the Titans are one of those 3-10 teams that we’d like to move ahead of in the draft. Either team winning here is good for the Cowboys, but the Bengals are more likely to win other games over the rest of the season than Tennessee. Any Titans win over the last four weeks is a surprise, so we’ll take them wherever we can get them.
Browns over Chiefs
Giants over Ravens
Bears over Vikings
No real mystery here; we want the bad teams to win and make it easier to catch them in the draft order. Chicago upsetting Minnesota feels somewhat realistic out of these three, but the other two would be pretty shocking.
Saints over Commanders
Raiders over Falcons
Patriots over Cardinals
These outcomes are mutually beneficial for Team Tank and Team Playoffs. They give our draft nemeses a better record while hanging losses on teams between Dallas and the last wild card spot.
