How much stock are you putting into the current winning streak that the Cowboys are on?
The analytics roundup has returned for the first time since Week 11, a result of the quick turnaround from playing on Thanksgiving. And what a difference the time has made, too, as the Cowboys have won two straight games, both against division opponents.
The team has certainly looked better these past two games, but does it actually mean anything? Let’s dive into the advanced statistics and see what value there is in these two wins and where the Cowboys are headed.
As if it wasn’t already clear, the Cowboys have improved. Their team DVOA has jumped up two spots in the rankings during this two-game winning streak. Interestingly, the offense has taken a slight step back while the defense is making strides. That will be a recurring theme throughout this report.
In terms of weighted DVOA, which is more a measure of how efficient a team is playing right now rather than from start to finish, the Cowboys are still 25th but their defense is creeping up to the league average line.
The EPA-based team tiers aren’t quite as kind to the Cowboys. They’re still stuck in the bottom three of the league, just narrowly ahead of the Raiders and Panthers, the latter of whom they play in two weeks.
Dallas is also just behind Cleveland and Jacksonville, two other teams playing without their franchise quarterback right now. This chart probably offers the biggest reality check for anyone getting excited about this win streak.
Offense
So, the offense has been scoring points somewhat regularly now, but they’re still a fairly inefficient bunch. In a fit of irony, the run game has plummeted in efficiency since Rico Dowdle started getting more carries, although the running back is still sixth in the league in rushing success rate.
There’s not much out there to suggest that the offense is playing good right now, but they’ve done good enough to win with the way their defense has played lately. That’s about all you can ask for right now.
Cooper Rush has rebounded nicely from his disastrous first start, and he’s now playing the kind of football we saw from him in 2022. That is to say that Rush is good enough to stay on schedule and move the chains, but he won’t be playing Superman any time soon.
That’s pretty much what you want from a backup quarterback, too, and Rush’s metrics reflect that. He’s ranked between 33 and 35 in all but QBR, which suggests he’s one of the top backups in a league of 32 starters.
The offensive line has been banged up lately, with Zack Martin missing each of the last two games. Tyler Smith missed a game too, and Tyler Guyton left with an ankle injury that will likely cause him to miss time.
That said, the unit hasn’t seen a steep decline with all the shuffling going on. They’re seventh in both pressure rate and adjusted sack rate and saw modest improvements in adjusted line yards and run block win rate. The Cowboys could still use better production from the trenches, but given the current state of the line, they’ll take this.
Defense
Don’t look now, but the Dallas defense is playing great football right now. In the four games since Micah Parsons has returned, the Cowboys are 10th in EPA/play and fourth (!) in EPA/dropback. The run defense has still been bad, but Dallas has been downright elite through the air since their best player returned.
That’s because Parsons has been dominant in his return, too. He’s notched 5.5 sacks with 22 pressures and has opened things up for the rest of his teammates too. On Thanksgiving, he reclaimed the team lead in pressures and is tied for 19th in the league despite missing four games. Parsons has been on a tear, and it’s making everything easier for this defense.
The coverage unit deserves credit, too, although Parsons has certainly meant less time trying to stick with their man back there. Josh Butler was rounding into form right before tearing his ACL. Israel Mukuamu has quietly been really great in coverage, although his usage has been limited.
DaRon Bland is also back, though he hasn’t been the kind of playmaker he was last year. It looks like Bland is still knocking some rust off, which is fair. The hope is that Trevon Diggs, who missed the last two weeks, will make his return and finally play alongside Bland for the first time this year.
