Don’t let the smooth taste fool you. Mike McCarthy’s club may have pulled off the upset on Sunday, but that victory didn’t come close to changing the fact he and his staff will be allowed to walk or be fired come mid-January. The Dallas Cowboys are still 4-7 on the season and halting a five-game skid is hardly enough to move he needle after how things have unfolded so far in 2024.
At this point, winning out and ending 10-7 probably still wouldn’t be enough, not without making the NFC Championship game with a backup quarterback. That’s how down bad things feel around Dallas and with owner Jerry Jones’ clear approach to the offseason. Yes, we’ve heard what Jones said. No, we don’t believe him. McCarthy was playing out the string, and continues to do so. So the Replacement Rankings forge ahead, looking at the top candidates heading into the 2025 offseason.
This week, a new wrinkle, tracking where the candidate was in last week’s rankings.
Honorable Mentions:
Liam Coen, OC, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Last Week: Not ranked
Dan Pritchard, Cincinnati Bengals OC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Ryan Grubb, Seattle Seahawks OC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Ejiro Evero, Carolina Panthers, DC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Jesse Minter, Los Angeles Chargers, DC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos, DC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Lincoln Riley, USC, HC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Adam Stenovich, Green Bay Packers OC | Last Week: Honorable Mention
University of Georgia head coach Kirby Smart | Last Week: 12
12
Comanders OC Kliff Kingsbury | Last Week: 6
Sep 29, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
It appears that Kingsbury’s time away after the disaster in Arizona has done him a ton of good. The offense he’s put together in DC for rookie Jayden Daniels is quite impressive and a stark contrast to what he was doing with Kyler Murray in the desert.
That transformation may lead to him having a second opportunity not always afforded, but the recent Washington slide has happened behind an injured Daniels and an offense that hasn’t been able to work around those constraints. Things have bogged down in Washington (politic pun intended) and Kingsbury may need an Act 2 before he returns to the head coaching ranks.
11
Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore | Last Week: Honorable Mention
Sep 26, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (right) laughs with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
One name that is rarely discussed but probably should be is the former heir apparent Kellen Moore. Moore was Jason Garrett 2.0; brought in to the coaching staff as a wunderkind who the Jones family thought a lot of. He carried over as offensive coordinator from Garrett to McCarthy. Being shown the door in 2023 after a playoff failure as McCarthy vowed taking back over play calling would take the offense to a new level.
It did, for a year, before bottoming out in 2024, even before all of the injuries hit. Meanwhile Moore attached himself to Brandon Staley’s sinking ship in L.A. for a year, but has revitalized his reputation thanks to Saquon Barkley’s arrival in Phiadelphia. The Eagles are sitting at 9-2 with an offense that is focusing on running to set up the pass.
10
Minnesota VIkings DC Brian Flores | Last Week: 11
Jan 9, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores watches from the sideline during the second quarter of the game against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Will Flores get another shot at a head coach gig? He was dumped by the Dolphins in their owner’s “I’m rich I can do what I want” attempt to lure Sean Payton and Tom Brady to South Beach. The revelation about trying to have a coach to tank games may have pulled the curtain back on the innerworkings of the league, but it likely didn’t do Flores much favor. What has though, is the job he’s done righting the ship in Minnesota with their defense.
9
Former NFL head coach Mike Vrabel | Last Week: 9
Tennessee Titans Head Coach Mike Vrabel reacts to a Titans penalty against the Seattle Seahawks during their game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023. Vrabel was fired by owner Amy Adams Strunk Monday after having two losing seasons back-to-back.
Vrabel is a defensive-minded head coach who was able to achieve strong levels of success in Tennessee with a veteran QB who wasn’t well regarded (Ryan Tannehill) prior to their time together. Known as a disciplinarian, pairing him with Dak Prescott would require finding the next big thing as offensive coordinator.
8
Former Patriots head coach Bill Belichick | Last Week: 8
Sep 30, 2018; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick watches from the sideline as they take on the Miami Dolphins in the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
For better or worse, the clubhouse leader. Belichick is a huge Prescott fan, Jerry Jones is a huge supporter of retreads and it would be interesting to see if given a competent front office… oh wait.
7
Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith | Last Week: 10
Nov 2, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith at press conference at the PSD Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Grabbing from a fruitful tree is always a wise idea, and snatching Smith from under Mike McDaniel as part of the Kyle Shanahan limb system seems like a wise call. Dallas rarely uses motion at the snap and isn’t particularly good at it; and that’s literally the forte of Smith. Doesn’t currently have play-calling duties though, which could be seen as a knock.
6
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik | Last Week: 4
Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik on the sideline during the game against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Slowik is immensely intriguing for several reasons. He just auditioned in front of Jones on Monday night and carved up a 77-yard opening play touchdown to announce his arrival.
Slowik’s stock fell over the last month as CJ Stroud has struggled to shine without his top receiving targets. Slowik is from the Shanahan coaching tree that has had ridiculous success at the NFL level and maybe most importantly, he used to coach defense. That combination just feels like he’d make a tremendous hire. How the offense looks down the stretch following their Week 12 bye will say a lot for his prospects.
5
Lions DC Aaron Glenn | Last Week: 7
Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn watches practice during OTAs at Detroit Lions headquarters and practice facility in Allen Park on Tuesday, June 11, 2024.
Glenn obviously has ties to Dallas, playing two of his 15 seasons with the organization, but the growth of the Lions’ defense under his tutelage has been impressive on its own. In 2020 they ranked 32nd in defensive DVOA. Since Glenn joined they moved to 29th, 27th, 13th and ranked 2nd going into Week 13 action.
He’s consistently being highlighted by their players as a phenomenal leader of men.
4
Colorado HC Deion Sanders | Last Week: 3
Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders (right) talks with Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones before the game against the Seattle Seahawks at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
After great success at Jackson State with back-to-back SWAC championships, Sanders has quickly brought Colorado from obscurity to relevancy. 1-11 the season before, Sanders brought them to 4-9 in Year 1 and they sit at 8-3 this season.
Sanders has always been given credence in this space as a real possibility. And now, this…
3
Bills OC Joe Brady | Last Week: 2
Jan 8, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterbacks coach Joe Brady poses for a picture with fans prior to the game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
After the strong work at LSU with Joe Burrow, Brady has been throwing haymakers in the NFL the last three seasons coordinating the Josh Allen Buffalo Bills. The Bills finished second in offensive DVOA in 2022, third in 2023 and are currently fourth in 2024.
2
Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken | Last Week: 5
Jul 27, 2023; Owings Mills, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) smiles at a fan with Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken standing in the background following training camp practice at Under Armour Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports
The evolution of the Ravens’ passing attack, and the under-center autonomy placed on Lamar Jackson’s shoulders over the last season and a half have been incredible. He’s one of one as a QB, but Monken deserves a ton of credit for recognizing how to unlock this team.
The 2024 Ravens, after adding Derrick Henry to the mix, now have a historic offense in terms of DVOA. Their 36.9% rating through 12 weeks is barely under the 2nd (Lions) and 3rd (GB) teams combined.
1
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson | Last Week: 1
Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson watches warm up before the Dallas Cowboys game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023.
What Ben Johnson’s offense and tutelage has been able to do for Jared Goff has been amazing. In the Stafford trade, Goff was expected to be a placeholder until the Lions drafted their guy. Now the clearly limited passer is running one of the league’s best and most innovative offenses. The Lions have the best record in the NFC, and Sunday night’s coordination of a Week 10 comeback win despite Jared Goff throwing five interceptions was the icing on the cake.
There’s a rumor out there that Johnson asked for $15 million a season last cycle. That could be a baseline number, or it could’ve been a number he gave to a franchise he wasn’t truly interested in. Fans should beware taking such reports without the unavailable context.
