Things with the Cowboys are so discouraging these days.
The Cowboys are bad. Everyone knows that by now, and in case you thought it might change with Cooper Rush coming into the lineup, it did not. This team is too bad right now for any move to serve as a quick fix or save the season. But even the most optimistic Rush fans had to be blown away by how bad he was. Ditto for Trey Lance in his limited playing time.
The question, though, comes down to how bad the Cowboys’ backups really were. Watching the game was rough, as both Rush and Lance made several especially egregious mistakes, but did their play really drag this team down considerably more? Let’s take a look at the advanced statistics to see.
In short, no they did not. The Cowboys took a very small step back in their offensive efficiency grades this week, but their rankings – offense, defense, and special teams – remained the same as a week ago. Their total team DVOA grade dropped one ranking, but only because they were just barely ahead of a Dolphins team that just won.
We also now pivot to tracking weighted DVOA instead of DAVE, casting out any preseason projections and instead focusing on more recent performances versus how the team did earlier in the year. Right now, the Cowboys’ weighted DVOA doesn’t deviate too much, but if it starts to shift significantly one way or the other, that will offer some clues as to the real impact of the quarterback change.
The team took a more significant tumble in the EPA-based team tiers. A week ago, they were still pretty bad but at least sat comfortably ahead of the Patriots, Browns, Giants, and Titans. Now, they’re practically even with the Browns and only ahead of the abysmal Panthers and Raiders.
Thinking just about the NFC East, the Giants made almost no movement here, but the Cowboys just fell that far behind them. Meanwhile, the Eagles and Commanders are among the league’s best teams right now. And as far as playoff seeding goes, there are nine NFC teams in the top three tiers here with only seven spots open. Even if Dak Prescott was going to return this year, the playoff window is as firmly shut as it could be without being mathematically eliminated.
Offense
So the offense didn’t get all that much worse in going from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush, which is both an endorsement of why Rush is the top backup and also an indictment of how bad this offense has been. Rush is not a particularly gifted quarterback, but his command of the playbook and solid fundamentals have made him a valuable backup because there isn’t likely to be a massive decline when he plays. That’s reflected here.
However, when the offense is so disastrous already, it’s hard to get much worse. That said, it’s not impossible either: here are six offenses behind Dallas in offensive DVOA, three of which have either fired their offensive coordinator or changed play-callers. These next two months of football are going to make it painfully obvious that this offense is in need of serious structural changes.
This will be the last week we look at Dak Prescott’s efficiency in this analytics roundups for two reasons. For starters, Prescott’s season was officially ended when he opted to undergo surgery on his hamstring tear on Monday. Additionally, one more game of Cooper Rush as the starter will give us just enough of a sample size to really dig into here, even though it’ll still be tough to compare him against the rest of the league.
So, in looking at Prescott’s final standings for the year, this was one of the most precipitous dropoffs we’ve seen in quite some time. A year ago, Prescott finished the season ranked second in EPA/play, second in QBR, and fifth in CPOE. Similarly, he was second in MVP voting. This year, as his season ends, he’s in the bottom quartile of the league in nearly every category. Whoever is in charge of this offense next year will be tasked with reviving Prescott’s career, which looked to be hitting its peak not even a full calendar year ago.
The offensive line has been a mixed bag all year. They’re not getting their quarterback sacked at a high rate, but they have a tendency to fall apart in big moments. Their run blocking has its moments – and it’s worth noting Rico Dowdle is behind only Bijan Robinson in running back success rate – but it’s not consistently dominant.
One player on this offensive line that’s consistently been an issue is Terence Steele. Only two tackles in the NFL have surrendered more pressures than Steele this year, and none have allowed more sacks. That’s not a good sign considering that Steele’s base salary next year will increase from $1.6 million to $13.3 million. Even worse: the Cowboys can’t get out of his contract without taking on serious amounts of dead money until the conclusion of the 2025 season.
Defense
Micah Parsons returned, at long last, and immediately proved why he’s the best defensive player in the league. What he may lack in PR skills is made up for with another type of PR skills: pass rush. Parsons’ 92.1 pass rush grade from Pro Football Focus was the best of any defender in Week 10, and he helped the Cowboys climb all the way up to fifth in the league in pressure rate.
Outside of that, though, everything else is bad for this defense. Parsons couldn’t fix a leaky secondary or squishy run defense. The game was a testament to Mike Zimmer’s ability to scheme up pressures, especially when Parsons is in the game, but the veteran coach simply lacks too much talent elsewhere to put a complete product on the field.
Speaking of that leaky secondary, let’s take a deep dive into this one. Jalen Hurts completed 70% of his passes with 10.1 yards per attempt. That’s a solid day of work. But the Cowboys as a whole fared pretty well, with the exception of rookie Caelen Carson. He saw more targets in this game than Trevon Diggs, Jourdan Lewis, Malik Hooker, and Donovan Wilson combined. The Eagles went after Carson time after time and generated over 51% of their total passing yards just from targeting Carson.
It was an exclamation point on what’s been a brutal season for the rookie, but that shouldn’t have anyone calling him a bust just yet. Let’s keep in mind that Carson was a fifth-round pick who was initially expected to sit behind the likes of Eric Scott and, later, Andrew Booth Jr. as depth options for DaRon Bland. When Carson did get playing time, he then missed four games with an injury. Don’t give up hope on him just yet, even if this season has been a trial by burning fire.
