The Cowboys come out of the bye week with a season-defining matchup against the San Francisco franchise on the docket. For years the rival 49ers have had Dallas’ number, bouncing them from the playoffs twice in the last three appearances and winning by an ever-increasing margin each game.
For a team reeling like the Cowboys, a road trip to San Francisco couldn’t come at a worse time. Following the 47-9 beatdown by the Lions, Dallas is need of a Week 8 win in a very bad way. Seeing the boogieman 49ers on the schedule is far from a welcoming sight.
The Cowboys roster is riddled with injuries. Not only do they lack any experienced receiver to pair with CeeDee Lamb, but they are decimated at defensive end and forced to play various practice squad players just to field a team.
But luck goes both ways and in the case of the 49ers, bad luck seems to be flowing heavily for them as well. Christian McCaffery and Brandon Aiyuk are both officially out for San Francisco and there’s a good chance George Kittle and/or Deebo Samuel could join them. If there’s ever a time for the Cowboys to beat their boogieman, now is it.
Matchups will be critical and since the status of Kittle and Samuel is still unknown, some of the bigger name matchups will be left pending until kickoff. Other matchups are fairly obvious and don’t need much pregame coverage. The Cowboys clearly need Lamb to have a big day and based on what he’s seen throughout the 2024 season, he can expect plenty of double and bracket coverages again in Week 8.
Dallas will need Lamb to be a difference maker because he’s the biggest, and arguably only, playmaker the Cowboys have, but they’ll also need to win other key matchups to upset the 3-4 49ers.
Jordan Mason vs Dallas run defense
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It’s going to take a team effort to stop Jordan Mason and the 49ers rushing attack on Sunday night. Mason, 5-foot-10 and 223 pounds, has been the engine for the San Francisco offense in 2024. Averaging 5.2 yards per carry, Mason is licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Cowboys defense.
The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2024, allowing an average of 0.16 EPA/play on the ground. This unfathomably bad number puts the Cowboys on a historic pace and renders their pass defense pointless since yards are so easy on the ground.
As always, the 49ers play condensed formations to execute their wide zone attack. It sets up big plays, misdirection, and play-action passes downfield. It’s bad news for a contact-adverse team like Dallas who struggle with both missed tackles and in following run fits.
If the Cowboys can keep the San Francisco running game limited to just their average weekly performance, it would constitute an enormous win. If Dallas plays it like they’ve played the run most of the season, things could get ugly.
Osa Odighizuwa Vs Puni and Banks
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A case can be made Odighizuwa is Dallas’ only plus pass rusher on the roster. With DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons missing the game, it may come down to the Cowboys 3-tech defensive tackle to provide most of the pass rush in non-blitzing situations.
Mike Zimmer is likely to blitz but he’s going to need the front four to handle business on their own as well. Moving Odighizuwa from side to side inside to matchup against the 49ers’ guards is a good way to generate that. Combined with stunts and various games, Zimmer might be able to engineer some pressure with his last true starting pass rusher.
Jake Ferguson vs Fred Warner
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Defenses have been homing in on Lamb this season, and for good reason. 2023’s receiving yardage leader is the only true weapon the Cowboys have on offense, so the 49ers would be fools no not double him up most of the day. In order for the Cowboys to unlock Lamb, they need Ferguson to have a big game.
Occupying the All-Pro linebacker Warner on Sunday night will be key to getting the offense rolling. Brilliant in both run support and coverage, Ferguson will have his work cut out for him. The Cowboys want to run the ball and based on the 49ers injury situation, opportunities should be there. Getting thru the second level is key to getting explosive plays and that starts and ends with handling Warner.
If Ferguson can be enough of a threat downfield, he can occupy Warner, and if he can handle his LB assignments on running plays, he could spark some explosive plays. Making Warner a non-factor opens things up over the middle and creates opportunities for the running game. Although that’s easier said than done.
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Conclusion
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Finding complementary pieces for Lamb is important coming out of the bye week. Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert will likely see plenty of opportunities for plays. It’s critical they make them.
The Cowboys have to score points because even a beat-up San Francisco squad is going to move the ball. The Cowboys want to force Brock Purdy to beat them. They can’t let Mason dominate on the ground and control possession.
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