Cowboys at Browns: Writer predictions for season opener

Our writers have submitted their predictions for Sunday’s Dallas Cowboys game.

At long last, football has returned! The NFL kicked off its new season with close games on both Thursday and Friday, but Sunday marks the return of America’s Team as the Cowboys take on the Browns in Cleveland. Both teams made the playoffs last year before getting blown out by a pair of young superstar quarterbacks.

The quest to get back to the postseason begins with this matchup, in which the Cowboys are a 2.5 point underdog. Can they come away with a win? Let’s see what our writers expect to happen.

When Cleveland has the ball

Protect Caelen Carson

The Cowboys will be starting rookie Caelen Carson at cornerback opposite Trevon Diggs, though not necessarily by choice. The move comes as a result of DaRon Bland’s injury, suffered in training camp. Carson, a fifth-round pick, impressed in camp and the preseason, earning the right to be the next man up, but he’s still the next man up.

The Browns have one of the more formidable receiving corps out there, featuring Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy. It’s unclear if new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer plans to have his cornerbacks follow specific receivers or stick to one side of the field – he’s done both in the past – but limiting Carson’s exposure to these two receivers has to be priority number one. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski will surely look to target Carson, but Zimmer needs to help his rookie out a little bit in his NFL debut.

When Dallas has the ball

Quick hitters

One of the features of the West Coast principles that Mike McCarthy infused into this Cowboys offense last year was a quicker trigger for Dak Prescott. That led to the quarterback averaging 2.71 seconds per attempt, eighth-fastest among starting quarterbacks last year.

He’ll need to continue that trend in this one, if not speeding it up even more, as the Browns feature an elite pass rush. They finished in the top 10 last year in pressure rate, sacks, and quarterback knockdown rate. Cleveland also played the second-highest rate of Cover 1 (press man coverage) last year, something Prescott thrived against. If Prescott can find the open receiver quickly, he can thwart this defense’s strengths and lead the offense to a successful first day of the new year.

Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…

Tom Ryle:

I’m in agreement that the Cowboys are asking a lot of rookies and a near rookie in DeMarvion Overshown, and they are going to take a bit to get things together. The Browns seem to be on the rise, while it is hard to see Dallas as heading up after their typical passive approach to roster building.

Cowboys lose, 17-16.

Matt Holleran:

I think this game is going to have a similar feel to Dallas’ opener back in 2016 against the Giants. If you remember, that was a low-scoring game that came down to the wire. Dallas’ offense wasn’t able to get in field goal range, aided by a Terrance Williams game-ending mistake, and they ultimately lost 20-19.

It’s not uncommon for offenses to struggle early on, and I think both Dallas and Cleveland will come out a bit rusty on offense this Sunday. Just like 2016, the Cowboys get the ball back trailing by one score late, but they ultimately suffer the same fate. The Browns’ defense holds giving them a big-time Week One win.

Give me Cleveland, 19-17.

Jess Haynie:

I think Mike Zimmer’s going to have fun terrorizing Deshaun Watson and that makeshift Browns offensive line. While I am worried about the Cowboys’ rust on offense, they have the better QB this weekend and the more complete team overall.

Cowboys win, 30-20.

Brandon Loree:

Another season of fun is about to begin! The Cowboys’ trip to Cleveland to face each other in Week 1 is intriguing on many levels. Both teams have an alien on defense who’s in the race for Defensive Player of the Year, a fan base who expects more from their quarterback, and the teams looking to start the season on a high note after disappointing losses in the postseason. The Cowboys will face a daunting defense headlined by one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Luckily, Dallas has CeeDee Lamb back in the fold to pick apart their man coverage. Speaking of man, Dak Prescott earned the highest completion percentage (66.0%) and the 2nd-most yards per pass attempt (8.8) against man coverage among qualified quarterbacks last season. Conversely, the Browns defense allowed the lowest completion percentage (45.8%) and 3rd-lowest yards per pass attempt (5.6) in man coverage last season. Something has to give.

I think the game will be close, but I’ll give Cleveland the advantage this week because it is at home and wins 20-17.

Mike Poland:

Deshaun Watson hasn’t played an NFL game since Week 9 of last year. He has to hold back the tide and deliver against a defense that ranked third in interceptions last year and eighth in sacks. Watson has 14 touchdowns in the last two seasons while Dak led the league last year with 36.

Cowboys win this one 24-21 – thank you Brandon Aubrey.

Dana Bartholomew:

There are just too many questions about how this Cowboys team will look this season to confidently pick them over the Browns. There are four rookie draft picks that will be starting on Sunday and while I believe they will end up being great contributors in the future, they will have a very big challenge in their NFL debut. Most notably, Cooper Beebe and Tyler Guyton will be battling against one of the best defensive lines in football last year that includes the reigning DPOY.

There are other questions like how productive will a running back by committee strategy will be, if CeeDee Lamb will be dominant after missing training camp, and how Caelen Carson will fare filling in for DaRon Bland. While I would love to believe that everything will work out swimmingly, I just need to see it first.

Cowboys lose, 21-16.

Brian Martin:

I’m not feeling all that confident about the Cowboys heading into Week 1 against the Browns. I don’t like what they did in free agency, DaRon Bland’s injury is a significant blow to the defense, the RB situation is suspect, and the fact Tyler Guyton’s NFL debut as Tyron Smith’s replacement at LT is against arguably the most feared DE in the league Myles Garrett all but shatters hope for a “W” this week. So, I’m predicting Dallas starts the season off 0-1 and loses a close one to Cleveland.

Cowboys lose, 13-10.

Chris Halling:

The Cowboys will unfortunately open their season 0-1, after a tough loss on the road against the Browns. Cleveland has a stout defense, and will give the Dallas offense trouble all game long. The team will reach the end zone once, but will struggle to be able to move the ball consistently down the field with an inefficient run game and QB Dak Prescott enduring relentless pressure from DE Myles Garrett.

Despite a good performance from the Mike Zimmer-coached defense, the Browns are able to score just enough to win the game, with a big performance from WR Amari Cooper. Cooper gets his revenge on Jerry Jones and the front office that traded him in 2022 for just a fifth-round pick.

Cowboys lose, 20-10.

RJ Ochoa:

More than anything my prediction is about a lack of belief in the Browns offense. I think they’ll struggle to do anything serious and may provide a shorter field or two that Dak and Co. are able to capitalize on. There are legitimate reasons to doubt Dallas this season, but I don’t see Cleveland as a team well-rounded enough to take advantage of their weaknesses.

Cowboys win, 26-19.

David Howman:

If you had asked me a couple of days ago, I’d have picked the Browns to win this one. I still kind of think they will, if only because I’m not yet sold on the Cowboys run defense being fully repaired or the prospect of Tyler Guyton not getting eaten alive by Myles Garrett.

But Dallas has stud pass rushers too, and Browns left tackle Jedrick Wills has already been ruled out for this game, while right tackle Jack Conklin is questionable. And between Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson, I trust Prescott infinitely more to make do with shaky pass protection. I think that will be the difference maker in this one.

Cowboys win, 24-17.