If you’re focused on the strength of the Cowboys’ 2026 draft picks at this point, it was not a merry Christmas. How did Thursday’s games hurt Dallas in the projected draft order, and how could the rest of the Week 17 schedule help?
The Cowboys’ victory over Washington, taking them to 7-8-1, arguably cost them a couple of draft spots. We still need to see what happens with 7-8 teams like Baltimore and Tampa Bay this week, but Dallas’ win puts it on the verge of a .500 finish with only the Giants left on the schedule. Already 15th in the updated order, they could end up with one of the best records of the non-playoff teams and slide even further down the board.
The other NFC game on Thursday was also no help. Minnesota’s upset over Detroit put them both at 8-8, and they have tough finales coming against the Packers and Bears, respectively. Both could easily finish 8-9, which means the Cowboys would have a better record if they beat the Giants. What’s more, the Lions’ loss clinched a playoff spot for the Packers, further devaluing the first-round pick they owe Dallas next spring.
Here is the current projected draft order for the non-playoff teams. Postseason results will determine the order for the other 14 teams that make the tournament.
1. Giants 2-13
2. Raiders 2-13
3. Browns 3-12
4. Jets 3-12
5. Titans 3-12
6. Cardinals 3-12
7. Commanders 4-12
8. Saints 5-10
9. Bengals 5-10
10. Chiefs 6-10
11. Dolphins 6-9
12. Rams (from Falcons) 6-9
13. Ravens 7-8
14. Buccaneers 7-8
15. Cowboys 7-8-1
16. Lions 8-8
17. Vikings 8-8
18. Jets (from Colts) 8-7
What does Dallas need from the rest of this penultimate week? Let’s get into the Saturday and Sunday games. We’re only going to look at those that actually have some potential bearing on the Cowboys’ 2026 draft position, which not all of them do.
Ravens over Packers
This is more about Baltimore than Green Bay, actually. Now that the Packers have made the playoffs, we have to see how they fare to find out how good that pick’s going to be. The Ravens are 7-8 with the potential to win their final two against Green Bay and Pittsburgh. If they finish 9-8, they’ll be one of the few teams left who can push Dallas up the draft order.
Colts over Jaguars
Indy’s first pick, which belongs to the Jets, is currently in the 18th slot. Their 9th win would guarantee that they finish with a better record than Dallas.
Falcons over Rams
If Atlanta can win their last two and get to 8-9, it gives Dallas a chance to move ahead of them. A Falcons win next week over the Saints is very possible, but this would be a massive upset if they knock off the Rams.
Buccaneers over Dolphins
Tampa can still get to 9-8 with two-straight wins, making them another team with potential to improve Dallas’ pick. Miami would have to win its next two for Dallas to pass, and that seems very unlikely with a road game against New England as its finale. The Bucs winning has a better chance of benefiting the Cowboys.
Panthers over Seahawks
Ideally, Carolina upsets Seattle here to get to nine wins, then loses next week to Tampa. That would leave both the Bucs and Panthers at 9-8, with one claiming the NFC South after tiebreakers and the other behind the Cowboys in the draft order. We don’t really care who, right?
That’s it, really. The rest of the schedule involves teams that are either playoff-bound or too far out of Dallas’ reach at the top of the draft order. The five games listed above are the only ones left that could have a direct impact on where the Cowboys are picking in 2026.
As for that Packers pick, they’re locked into the seventh seed now and will travel to face whoever finishes second in the first round. That could still be anyone between the Bears, Eagles, 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks. Who is best-suited to knock Green Bay out early, which helps the Cowboys’ other first-round pick? We’ll dig into that more next week.
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