The tide is turning, though not in a good way. The Cowboys’ latest loss has all but eliminated them from the postseason. The Vikings had been eliminated hours before kickoff, but it didn’t stop them from winning in Dallas. The worst part is that J.J. McCarthy, the de facto rookie quarterback who has struggled mightily this year, had his best game yet.
It’s once again put all the pressure back on defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and, in some ways, added some pressure to Brian Schottenheimer. A month ago, Schottenheimer doubled down on his coordinator, and he briefly looked like a genius for it. The defense appeared to be genuinely turning a corner after the trade deadline, and Eberflus had made some necessary changes to assist in that regard.
Last week’s loss to the Lions was forgivable, albeit still frustrating. Detroit has been an offensive powerhouse and the Cowboys looked tired after playing three games in 12 days. But a bounce back was expected, especially against Minnesota. Instead, they rolled over, and Eberflus reverted back to his worst, timid tendencies when push came to shove.
Schottenheimer still isn’t firing any coaches, or hinting that he might, but his tune has changed. After Jerry Jones came dangerously close to saying he wanted to make a change, Schottenheimer more or less echoed his sentiment of needing to prove it over the final few weeks of the season.
Eberflus has completely run out of excuses at this point.
He was lacking talent early on, but not anymore. Quinnen Williams has been as advertised, DeMarvion Overshown looks better each week, and Shavon Revel flashes potential the more he plays. The edge rushers have all gotten better in recent weeks, and Donovan Wilson has made strides as well. Even DaRon Bland recovered from his rough night in Detroit to hold Justin Jefferson to just one catch.
Eberflus was also running into the issue of his scheme not fitting his players well. Even after the influx of talent, it wasn’t much of a fit. He tweaked some things – blitzing more, using more press man coverage, and adopting five-man fronts to get the most out of his stacked defensive tackle room – and they started to work.
Then, for some reason, he went away from it all against the Lions. And, for reasons that make even less sense, he continued to go away from it against the Vikings, a game where the season was on the line. The stubbornness of Eberflus to do what it takes to win with what he has amounts to a fireable offense.
Perhaps the most concerning part about this defense is how it’s performed against the NFC North.
Of course, Eberflus spent the past three seasons in that division as the Bears head coach. For most of the last two seasons, he called plays on defense, too. There’s no group of teams Eberflus knows better than the Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings. Yet the Cowboys went 0-3-1 against them; every single one of them topped 31 points, with two of them dropping 40-burgers.
To put it in further perspective, the Cowboys defense is averaging 0.145 EPA/play allowed for the season. That’s 30th in the NFL, just slightly ahead of the Commanders and Bengals. But against teams in the NFC North, Dallas is allowing 0.277 EPA/play. They’re nearly twice as bad against the teams Eberflus knows best.
There’s simply no excuse for that, and Schottenheimer knows it. He was caught delivering a fiery (and, perhaps, not safe for work) criticism in the direction of Eberflus after burning a timeout against the Vikings when the defense was visibly confused on the play call. Schottenheimer isn’t the kind of person to publicly degrade one of his assistants, but there seems to be hints that his patience is nearly out.
The Cowboys have been in this spot before. Mike McCarthy’s first year on the job brought with it the Mike Nolan Experience, and that ended after just one year. That was a bit of a stunner, because McCarthy and Nolan went way back in their relationship; it was certainly not easy for McCarthy to fire Nolan, but he did.
Schottenheimer has no such ties to Eberflus, as the two had never been part of the same staff before this year. That may suggest whose idea it was to bring Eberflus back to Dallas, but whether or not that’s true, it doesn’t change what must be done from here.
Another point that feels worth mentioning: the Mike Nolan Experience was also the last time Micah Parsons didn’t play for the Cowboys. While Eberflus deserves plenty of blame, and Schottenheimer must absolutely do what needs to be done, the current state of this Dallas defense goes way beyond X’s and O’s.
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