With last Thursday night’s loss at the Detroit Lions, the Dallas Cowboys are 0-2-1 against the NFC North this season, and have their final opportunity to get a win against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The best division in football from a year ago has given the Cowboys a lot of trouble in 2025 and is a big reason they still have a lot of work to do catching the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.
The Eagles also lost to the Bears on Black Friday like the Cowboys did in week three, but beat a Packers team the Cowboys managed a tie against and won at the Vikings 28-22 in week seven. The Cowboys need to hold serve against the Vikings and win playing against J.J. McCarthy. When Philly beat Minnesota, it was against their own former QB Carson Wentz. Now, Dallas gets McCarthy coming off his third win of the season in his seventh start, and first three touchdown game of his career against Dan Quinn’s Washington Commanders.
For the Cowboys to keep playoff hopes alive they will need their defense to fully seize the opportunity to make McCarthy struggle, he’s thrown four interceptions in three road starts this season, and help the team win should they have another big offensive output after losing despite scoring 30 points at the Lions for the first time all season.
The Vikings own defense will be looking to have a big say in how much they can slow the Cowboys down, coming off their second shutout in three seasons under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings defense has only allowed over 28 points once this season, but the team sits at 5-8. The story of the Cowboys season has been the defense letting the offense down, and the story for the Vikings has been the exact opposite with the offense not doing enough to win with their defense.
The Cowboys have plenty of corrections to make in all three phases to win their matchups against the Vikings and get their first home win against the purple-clad squad since 2013. Playing in primetime for the final time this season where they are 1-3-1, it’s time for our weekly look at what the Cowboys must do to get win number two under the lights and get back over .500.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Minnesota Vikings if…
they win with four up front.
Dallas has done very well to upgrade their defensive front with the addition of Quinnen Williams to join other newly acquired players Kenny Clark and Solomon Thomas, along with Osa Odighizuwa on the interior.
There is a very high level of variance when it comes to how many defensive alignments and philosophies are being played in the league right now, but the desire to win with four up front is pretty strongly shared throughout. The Cowboys have brought in the personnel to believe in their front to win consistently, and doing so to collapse the pocket against a quarterback that’s been sacked 24 times in seven starts this season would go a very long way on Sunday night.
McCarthy is tied for the second worst air yards differential in the league, just -0.1 behind Tyrod Taylor at an NFL worst -3.3. He has the highest intended air yards at 9.6 among the entire seven worst passers on this list. The Cowboys regularly forcing McCarthy to layer these throws against the numbers they’re capable of committing to coverage should help them get off the field and set up field position for the offense in this matchup. McCarthy having the second-worst completion percentage above expected in the game also helps the Dallas defense here.
This is very much a “see it, throw it” type of quarterback that wants clean reads to hit his targets, where the Vikings do have no shortage of skill thanks to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Cowboys having to blitz McCarthy, even if just to contain his rushing threat around the edge, could lead to these clean reads throwing against the blitz to give space to these dynamic receivers.
Even with a win, there are going to be things that Cowboys fans want to see differently from this defense going forward. Luckily for Eberflus here in Week 15 though, his best and final chance to get a win against his old division is by sticking to what he does best, and hoping his defenders can win their one-on-one matchups in the trenches to affect the passer.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Minnesota Vikings if…
they have communication issues and penalties on offense.
The Cowboys have had extra time to sit on their Week 14 loss at the Lions, which may only add to the sting of it. Players they have counted on all season like Jake Ferguson and George Pickens had costly penalties and mistakes that made the difference in a battle of two teams fighting for their lives. Hopefully for their sake, along with the sting of their playoff odds decreasing in the loss, the motivation is also there to have a bounce back in a spot it will be needed against this aggressive Vikings defense.
The Vikings defense makes their living mixing and matching pass rushers, linebackers, and secondary players all in pressure looks that change from pre to post snap on the fly. Just getting the right players blocked up for the Cowboys to have time to throw downfield will be a concern without Tyler Guyton at left tackle, a rookie starter at right guard, and Terence Steele coming off a down game at the Lions. Using the run game to stay in manageable downs and distances can only go as far as the Cowboys also play a clean game up front without penalties to set them right back.
In their win 31-0 against the Commanders, Harrison Smith and Andrew Van Ginkel had interceptions for the Vikings while Blake Cashman led them in tackles with ten. The Commanders went 3-10 on third down and 0-2 in the red zone.
The Cowboys have the ability to control the ball with their high-percentage short-to-intermediate passing game, but did not fare well throwing the ball to their running backs against the Lions. Downfield routes will need time to develop against the Vikings, and contested catches will need to be made at a higher rate compared to the Lions game.
Regardless, if this is a Cowboys team destined for the playoffs or not, their direction under Brian Schottenheimer rests mostly in the success or failures of the offense. Whether or not they can look like the offense that made a 21-point comeback against the Eagles, or sustain scoring drives against the Chiefs, in their return home will be critical in this night game opportunity.
The margin of error for the Cowboys to sustain a loss is officially at zero, and the challenge of playing against this Brian Flores defense stands in front of them as the immediate challenge to conclude a Sunday where the team they’re chasing has their easiest remaining game on paper of the season, at home, versus the Raiders. Dallas is looking to avoid a similar type of deflating primetime loss at home to the Vikings compared to the last time they hosted them in 2019 also on SNF, and playing one of their cleanest games of the season on offense and not settling for field goals will help them do so.
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