Every week, we gather to discuss the latest news about the Dallas Cowboys and seek our writer’s perspective on each headline. Welcome back to the roundtable. This week we have David Howman, Sean Martin, and Tom Ryle.
Have all playoff hopes diminished after the Detroit loss? Or do you still have a small bit of hope?
Mike: You’re talking to Mr. Positive here so the way to put this is the Cowboys playoff hopes aren’t dead, but they’re on life support. The path to postseason hopes are very narrow. The team has to stack wins immediately, literally zero losses between now January. To do that we need to see the team clean up early-down efficiency, and convert red-zone trips at a touchdown rate north of 60% while staying at least +1 in turnover margin.
Defensively, where to start here after watching the Lions game. Stopping explosive plays is a first and start getting a better pressure rate, much better rush-lane integrity is needed, and at the top of Santa’s wish-list would be much better tackling. If Dallas takes care of the next two weeks and flips those situational edges, they have a chance.
Sean: Just because the Eagles have made a similar collapse to the one that will be needed for the Cowboys to reach the playoffs, there’s a small bit of hope still to be had. The loss to the Lions wasn’t just a letdown in the way the defense regressed, stars didn’t play like stars, and turnovers didn’t go Dallas’ way, it also exposed areas where the Cowboys frankly don’t deserve to be a playoff team. The struggles at linebacker and safety are ones that can’t be addressed until the offseason, and were both letdowns against a Lions offense built to expose these spots.
Tom: Like Sean, I also saw the Detroit loss as evidence Dallas doesn’t belong in the playoffs. It also supports the idea that we made too much of the wins over Philadelphia and Kansas City, a couple of teams that don’t feel at all like the dominant forces of recent seasons. I have no hope really, but can’t discount the possibility of a lot of things going just right. The NFL is just a bit confusing with very few powerhouses. Still any trip to the playoffs would almost certainly be short lived. I will be pulling for the Cowboys to win out. I just don’t think it would be enough.
Howman: I hate to invoke the words of a certain aging quarterback, but everyone just needs to R-E-L-A-X. The Cowboys needed some help to make the playoffs going into Detroit, and they still need some help. Do they need a little bit more now? Sure. But is this thing over? Absolutely not.
Mike: There was way too many explosive plays allowed. Detroit turned play-action crossers and perimeter screens into chunk gains that flipped field position, created cheap points, and kept them ahead of the sticks. Dallas’ rush-lane sloppiness and a load of poorly executed tackles fed those explosives, compounding the damage. Early-down stalls on offense didn’t help, and special teams flops also didn’t help, and that meant Dallas spent the game chasing Detroit.
Sean: I’ll go with early down inefficiency, because that is the base reason for the difference in explosive plays between the Lions and Cowboys on Thursday night. The Cowboys defense did need to find a way to tighten up on the back end, or get more pressure on Jared Goff, to limit these plays, but it is not easy when the Lions are ahead of the chains and can lean on not one but two running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs really hurt the Cowboys in these situations. The Cowboys haven’t been able to get their own running backs involved in the pass game at all this season, and that hurt them in this loss too. Factor in the highs and lows from George Pickens, the loss of CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson’s fumble and it all made the difference in this team’s latest comeback attempt falling short.
Tom: My feel is this was another defensive collapse. Even with their issues the offense scored 30. But the Lions only punted twice all game. Eberflus had no answers. And don’t forget that Detroit averaged 32.6 yards per kickoff return for a whopping total of 261. That’s a ton “hidden” yardage. Even when Dallas put points on the board the Lions faced short fields to respond.
Howman: It may be overly simplistic or a cop out but I think this team just ran out of gas. They had two very hard fought wins over two very talented teams and it didn’t look like they had much left in the tank once they got to Detroit. I think we’ll see a much better version of this team when they come out of the mini bye.
Mike: Minnesota’s offense is built on isolation shots to the boundary, so start in split-safety, bracket Justin Jefferson on every down while keeping strict rush-lane integrity so Aaron Jones cannot make chunk gains.
Sean: The Vikings have not looked at all like the Vikings that I think many Cowboys fans are familiar with over the last few seasons, so the top priority needs to be just keeping it that way and taking care of the ball on offense. Against another familiar opponent for DC Matt Eberflus to call plays against, seeing the Cowboys win this game up front, get a better pass rush, and set up the offense to control the game would be a great sign in a road opportunity.
Tom: Stay fundamentally sound. I think the Cowboys have enough of a talent advantage they just need to avoid glaring mistakes to get a win. No hero ball, just 11 guys all doing their jobs.
Howman: I’m not even remotely worried about the Vikings offense right now, so I’ll go with moving the ball against this Brian Flores defense. There are few defensive minds more cunning than him, though Dallas has the weapons to be able to be effective against this unit.
Rapid fire section
Who scores first for Dallas?
Sean: George Pickens
Tom: Jake Ferguson
Howman: Javonte Williams
Red-zone identity, downhill run or play-action to Jake Ferguson?
Sean: Against the aggressiveness of the Vikings defense, I’ll say PA to Ferguson
Tom: Second that
Howman: Downhill run
Priority on defense, defend explosive plays at all costs or squeeze the run on early downs?
Sean: Squeeze the run and make a Vikings QB beat you, they haven’t all season.
Tom: I think explosive plays are the only way the Vikings win, so stop those.
Howman: Squeeze the run
Most important stat to win. Penalty count or third-down rate?
Sean: Penalties are a killer, can’t have them on the road.
Tom: Avoid penalties and that rate likely looks better.
Howman: The team that can move the chains consistently won’t be concerned with penalties
George Pickens receptions, over/under 8.5
Sean: Under
Tom: Over if CeeDee can’t go, under if he can
Howman: Over regardless of CeeDee Lamb, he’s got something to prove
Cowboys defensive sacks, O/U 1.5
Sean: Over
Tom: Over
Howman: Over
Dallas defensive takeaways, O/U 1.5
Sean: Under
Tom: Over
Howman: Under
Justin Jefferson receiving yards allowed, O/U 80.5
Sean: Over
Tom: Over
Howman: Under
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