As we get closer to the end of the 2025 season, the surging Cowboys have suddenly moved into the NFC playoff conversation. One big wrinkle for Dallas, and the also-contending Green Bay Packers, is their tie result from Week 4. What does this standings anomaly mean for Dallas and the rest of the conference in the ever-developing playoff picture?
Cowboys fans can be forgiven if they’re not sure how to feel about or understand the impact of a tie. They don’t happen often: Dallas and Green Bay’s is the only one so far this year and the first since 2022. From 2002 to 2014, there were only 12 total ties over 13 seasons. And for Dallas, amazingly, this was the first tie for the franchise since 1969.
What’s funny about ties is that, for as rare as they are and as inexperienced as we may be with them, they actually make things simpler. If you want complexity, go through the NFL’s tiebreaking scenarios for things like division winners, playoff seeding, and draft order. Especially once you get into levels like common opponents and strength of schedule, things get really tedious and unappealingly mathy.
When one team has a tie in its record and another team doesn’t, all of that other stuff goes out the window. It comes down to the basic comparison of overall records, and particularly each team’s winning percentage. Let’s say Dallas finishes the year with a 9-7-1 record: nine wins, seven losses, and one tie. That is a better record with a higher winning percentage (.559) than a 9-8 (.529) record. It’s also a worse record than 10-7 (58.8), still keeping things simple.
Basically, if the Cowboys and another NFC team (other than Green Bay) finish the year with the same number of wins, the tie immediately lifts Dallas above them in the standings. Any team that’s won more games than Dallas this year will automatically be above them, no different than if the Cowboys didn’t have the tie at all.
This is especially relevant given how close Dallas and the Carolina Panthers are right now in the NFC. Carolina beat the Cowboys in Week 6, which would generally grant them an important head-to-head tiebreaker if needed. But now, if the Panthers and Cowboys have the same number of wins after Week 18, Dallas’ loss to Carolina simply won’t matter. The Cowboys would have the better overall record, thanks to the tie.
If you already understood all that, sorry for the lecture. But we’ve seen a lot of posts and other writings that indicate there’s still a lot of confusion about how this works: Cowboys fans anxious over tiebreaking scenarios that have a very low chance of actually coming into play. The mission going forward is simple, with Dallas just needing to at least match the win totals of most other NFC contenders to move ahead of them in the playoff race. This is also true in the NFC East, where the Cowboys could still steal the division if they can gain two more wins than the Eagles over the next five weeks.
If we get through Week 18 and Dallas falls short of the playoffs, especially if it’s only by one win, many are going to point to the tie as the culprit. Because it’s unusual and a little more intriguing, it makes for good fodder. But the truth is that the tie has as much chance of helping the Cowboys as hurting them. It’s a 50-50 variable, dependent on the win total of that other team vying for that same playoff spot.
If we wind up needing to blame results for costing the Cowboys a postseason bid, there are far more egregious sins than tying one of the top teams in the NFC. How about the atrocious loss to the now 3-9 Arizona Cardinals? Or maybe no-showing against the Bears and Broncos? Or allowing Rico Dowdle to run for 183 yards in the loss to Carolina? Focusing on a game we didn’t actually lose, and against a tough Packers team, would be silly by comparison.
Hopefully, after January 7th, the Cowboys’ tie with Green Bay will be something that boosts their standing in the NFC rather than diminishes it. It will also play a part in determining the 2026 NFL Draft order, but we’re focused on the playoffs right now as the team has found momentum. We’ll see where we finally end up, and the role that Dallas’ first tie in over 50 years has on the future.
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