It was an eventful Thanksgiving, as the Cowboys pulled out a gutsy win over the Chiefs that, at one point, felt like it was doomed for yet another last-second Mahomes victory. Then, a day later, Black Friday yielded a great half-off deal, with the Eagles’ offense collapsing yet again in a loss to the Bears.
Suddenly, the Cowboys sit just two games back of the Eagles and, having split that series, and owning a better divisional record. The path to the playoffs looks a lot less murky than it did just before kickoff against the Eagles. Imagine that.
So how real is this hope we’re starting to feel? That’s what our own David Howman and Tom Ryle try to tackle.
David: Oh it’s real.
The Cowboys had just a 10% chance to reach the playoffs after their win over the Raiders. Now? It’s up to 23%, according to the playoff simulator at The Athletic. A win over the Lions would boost that number up to 41%! And would you look at that, the Lions have lost three of their last five and seem likely to be playing this week without top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown.
It’s still going to take a lot to get to the playoffs, of course, but a big part of the optimism on my end is just the way this team is playing. The offense is still firing on all cylinders and the defense, while not amazing, is proving perfectly capable of stepping up in big moments.
Tom: It’s wild how a team I thought was dead in the water has refused to go away. Now they are above .500 for the first time all season. Staying there is not going to be easy, however. Detroit is still dangerous.
But so were Philadelphia and Kansas City. Even though Dallas has to go back on the road after a nice home stand, you can’t just assume the Lions are still the superior team.
Even if they stumble, there is only one game after that against a winning team, the Chargers. Nine wins looks very doable. With the tie, that could be enough to squeak in. Beat either Detroit or LAC and the odds really shoot up.
David: I’m not sure nine wins gets you into the playoffs, though. Two of the three teams currently on track for a Wild Card spot already have nine wins, and the third has eight wins. I think the only shot is winning the NFC East.
However, I think that’s more than feasible right now. The Eagles are in a nosedive, having lost two straight. Their offense has averaged just 15 points a game the last month, and now they go on the road to face a really tough Chargers defense. They’ll also have to play in Buffalo in the last week of December, hardly an ideal scenario.
The tie is where things get interesting. If the Cowboys win out and the Eagles drop just two games – odds would be on the Chargers and Bills delivering such outcomes – then Dallas would win the division by virtue of having one less loss. But can they win out?
Tom: There, as some fellow once observed, is the rub. If they can go on a run over the final five games they have a really good chance of making the postseason.
It seems a big hurdle to clear, but remember who they just beat over the past couple of games. Specifically the last two NFL champions. Clearly the Eagles and Chiefs are having more struggles than they are accustomed to. Still, they are not pushovers.
A bit stunningly, the Cowboys now look capable of beating any of the teams left on the schedule. The defensive reset has been gratifyingly successful. The offense seems stoppable only by their own mistakes.
All this means is that first they have to beat the Lions in their own house. If they do, this is going to be a very interesting stretch run.
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