The Cowboys may actually beat the Chiefs. A month ago, that would’ve seemed impossible, but it’s where we are today. Kansas City overcame two close losses to start the year and ripped off plenty of wins in a hurry, improving to 5-3 and looking ready to dominate the rest of the league again. Meanwhile, Dallas was consistently inconsistent, finding new ways to lose and then following it up with a win, only to lose again the next week.
Now, as we approach a Thanksgiving clash between these two, things have changed.
The Cowboys added some pieces during the bye week, improved their defense, and got their mojo back on offense. They’ve won two straight, including a gutsy comeback against the Eagles, and now sit at 5-5-1 and just three slots away from being a Wild Card team.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, lost a close one to the Bills right before their bye. When they returned from the rest, they fell to the Broncos, dropping them to 5-5. Then it took an 11-0 fourth quarter just to force overtime against the Colts, at which point a field goal secured the win to prevent them from having lost three in a row and dropping below .500 on the year.
While most teams would interpret that as there being blood in the water, it really just highlights the frustrating nature of this Chiefs team: they find ways to win, no matter how ugly.
As cliché as it sounds, it’s true. Kansas City has become Super Bowl regulars in recent years because of a perfect synthesis of scheme in all three phases of the game. Andy Reid’s West Coast spread has been waiting years for a player like Patrick Mahomes, Steve Spagnuolo is a master of making life hard on a quarterback, and Dave Toub has been of the league’s most respected special teams minds for decades.
Offensively, Reid has always been known for explosive outputs. For a long time, that was the case in Kansas City too, with Tyreek Hill demonizing defenses down the field while Travis Kelce ate up linebackers and safeties in the intermediate areas. Hill is in Miami now, and Kelce is slowing down in his career.
Youngsters Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both offer similar juice to Hill, but availability has been an issue. Rice missed the first six games of the season due to a suspension, while Worthy was injured in a collision with Kelce in the season opener; even after he returned, it took Worthy a few games to really find his groove again.
That’s where this offense has seemed to be all year: finding its groove. The numbers suggest they’ve already found it – Kansas City is second in EPA/play and third in offensive DVOA – but they’ve also been prone to long stretches of scoring droughts.
Only five quarterbacks have been pressured more this year, and Mahomes is tied for ninth in sacks. His big time throw rate is only slightly higher than his turnover worthy play rate, and his 34.6% completion rate on passes of 20+ yards down the field is one of the worst in the league, barely ahead of Geno Smith. Explosives have eluded this offense despite having insane speed at the wide receiver position.
In the run game, the Chiefs are getting stuffed at the lowest rate in the league and they’re sixth in yards before contact per attempt. However, only the Eagles and Patriots have fewer yards after contact per attempt. In other words, the run blocking is very good, but the Chiefs aren’t getting much rushing production beyond that. Again, explosives are lacking.
Yet the Chiefs have been explosive when it matters most: Mahomes has them first in EPA/play on both third/fourth down and in the fourth quarter/overtime. When the game is on the line, this offense delivers.
It’s been a similar story for the defense. Their metrics are closer to the middle of the pack – 15th in EPA/play allowed and 12th in defensive DVOA – but Spagnuolo finds ways to disrupt offenses each week. His attacking style of defense is blitzing on nearly a third of all downs and using simulated pressures almost as often.
On the back end, Spagnuolo is focused on taking away big plays, using a high rate of Cover 3 but mixing things up and disguising coverages frequently. His fierce front seven forces offenses to earn it underneath, which is always easier said than done against this team. It’s greatly aided by Chris Jones, who’s fourth among all interior defenders in pressures this year and constantly wrecks games.
The greatest asset this Chiefs team has is their experience. They rarely panic, always remaining fully aware of what they’re capable of. With Mahomes on offense and Jones on defense, and the duo of Reid and Spagnuolo calling plays, you never know when the Chiefs are about to flip the switch and go off. And, in a sense, they can lull opponents to sleep when they get into their dry spells, too.
It’s what makes this team so frustrating to play and so challenging to beat. In a lot of ways, they’re similar to the Eagles, who crushed them in the last Super Bowl. The same Eagles who just got beat by these Cowboys after lulling themselves to sleep in the second half. So if Sunday’s game wasn’t anxiety-inducing enough for you, just wait until Thanksgiving.
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