The Cowboys are riding a bit of a high after their emotional win over the Raiders, and the chance to get back to .500 is right around the corner. It won’t be easy, though, as they host the Eagles for a rematch of what was a close loss on the road in the season opener.
Back then, we profiled the offensive and defensive schemes for the Eagles, projecting their new look on offense under a new coordinator while detailing the changes that grizzled veteran Vic Fangio was dealing with. Not much has changed schematically for either side, but the way they’re playing has.
Defensively, Fangio’s unit started out poorly. Holding Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 17 points in Week 2 was the lone bright spot, as Philadelphia ranked 18th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate through the first eight weeks of the season.
Then they went to their bye week and seemingly figured things out. In the two games since, they’ve allowed 16 total points and are second in EPA/play while ranking third in success rate. Granted, one of those games came against a Broncos offense that’s 17th in EPA/play, while the Lions have been a bit inconsistent and just changed offensive play-callers the week before facing the Eagles.
In short, if you wanted to argue that the Eagles still haven’t figured things out defensively, there’s something to work with there. Odds are probably good that they have, indeed, figured it out considering Fangio’s very long track record of success.
The bigger problem for the Eagles is that the defense is the only reason the Eagles aren’t coming into this one on a two-game losing streak.
The offense has completely fallen off, and fans are calling for first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo to lose his job. It’s not exactly groundbreaking news that Eagles fans are directing their hatred at someone after a few down weeks, but the decline has been stark.
Over the first eight weeks, when the defense was having trouble stopping a nosebleed, the offense was in a groove. They ranked eighth in EPA/play and fourth in EPA/rush, with Saquon Barkley doing what he often does.
Since then, though, the Eagles are 26th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate, ahead of only the Browns. Most concerning is their run game, which has always been the thing that Nick Sirianni resorts to when the offense isn’t humming. These last two weeks, Philly is 29th in EPA/rush, a shockingly low result for them.
Perhaps the biggest concern for the Eagles is that the problem seems to be their offensive line. Only two other teams are getting stuffed on a higher rate of runs for the year; it doesn’t help that they’re 30th in yards after contact per attempt, either.
In the pass game, Jalen Hurts is seeing more pressure than he usually does, and his pressure-to-sack ratio of 21.3% is fifth among starting quarterbacks, just behind the last quarterback the Cowboys faced, Geno Smith. The Eagles offense is cratering right now.
That’s ideal timing for the Cowboys, because their defense just got a huge boost. Quinnen Williams dominated the Raiders and helped open things up for others on that defensive line, while DeMarvion Overshown and Logan Wilson represented tangible upgrades in both run defense and pass coverage of intermediate lanes. Even Malik Hooker, who returned from injury, provided a noticeable bump in production.
It feels wrong to say that Dallas is well-positioned to shut down Hurts, Barkley, and this offense. That’s where we may be though, and looking at the way each team is playing coming into this one, it’s hard to argue otherwise. That leaves things up to the battle between Dak Prescott and Vic Fangio, a battle that Dallas was winning earlier this year before some ill-timed drops from their star receiver.
One way or another, though, the stage is set for the Cowboys and Eagles to deliver us one of the most thrilling games you could imagine between an 8-2 team and a 4-5-1 team.
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