Cowboys analytics roundup: Defensive reinforcements coming just in time

The bye week may have come at the perfect time for the Cowboys. Two straight losses has the season on the brink of being over, but two big trades at the deadline – plus the imminent return of both DeMarvion Overshown and Shavon Revel – offer a chance at a reset, defensively.

And, really, the Cowboys defense only needs to achieve “average” play with the way their offense has been this season. So as we prepare for Monday night’s game against the Raiders, let’s review where Dallas sits right now, and what that means for their chances to make a run.

Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance

From a bird’s eye view, the story remains the same. The Cowboys have a really great offense that’s being dragged down by a terrible defense. Dallas is 11th in offensive DVOA, just narrowly outside the top 10. Of the 10 teams ahead of them, all have a winning record and six of them sit in first place in their division. The Cowboys have had no such luck.

Special teams should jump out here, though. Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin are the best at their respective roles, unquestionably, but everything outside of them has been bad. They’re 27th in hidden points, which effectively measures the advantage gained by the opposing special teams unit, and they also have the fourth-most special teams penalties despite not playing this past week. Nick Sorensen badly needs to clean up his unit.

The EPA-based team tiers reveal an almost comical divide between the upper and lower echelon of the NFL, and the Cowboys are right there in no man’s land. That beautifully reflects the nature of this team, as they have the offense of a contender but the defense of a team that’s only contending for a top five draft pick.

In a way, though, this chart demonstrates why the Cowboys are capable of making a run still. If they can climb upwards on this chart and get level with, say, the Ravens and 49ers, they’d be right in the thick of the playoff conversation. The hope is that the four players who will make their debut this week can facilitate that.

Offense

Cowboys Offensive Efficiency

How good has this offense been? Consider this: the Cowboys posted a -0.028 EPA/play in their previous two games and still rank sixth in total EPA/play for the year. Most of that negative figure came from the Broncos game, to be fair, but it still illustrates how good the unit has been.

The flip side of that equation, though, is that the Cowboys have had their two worst offensive performances most recently. Is this offense cooling off? Or did they just run into some bad matchups? They’ll face some more top defenses in just a few weeks, so the answer to this question will be monumental in determining whether a run is possible, regardless of any defensive improvements.

Dak Prescott’s Efficiency

The interesting thing about the Cowboys’ offensive decline these past two weeks is how it’s happened. Against Denver, Dak Prescott just had a bad game. He was hesitant on throws, inaccurate down the field, and just didn’t look like himself. Against the Cardinals, though, he actually played well.

Prescott saw the second-highest pressure rate he’s seen all year, and he was sacked five times as a result. Prescott also had four passes dropped on the night; if those four were caught, and discounting intentional throwaways, Prescott would’ve finished with an 80% completion rate. That may or may not offer fans solace, but it’s better than a world where Prescott had consecutive bad games.

Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency

As mentioned, Prescott was under serious duress in the last game. Just under 75% of those pressures came from the offensive tackles. Notably, the Cowboys pulled Terence Steele during the game, putting Nate Thomas in at right tackle. Thomas didn’t do well, giving up the most pressures on the night, but the move was a long time coming.

Steele has surrendered 25 pressures this year, 10th most in the league. Tyler Guyton is one of the few to have given up more, even though Guyton has played fewer snaps than Steele. Offensive line coach Conor Riley confirmed they’re having a competition at right tackle, which makes this something to monitor.

Defense

Cowboys Defensive Efficiency

Breaking news: the Cowboys are not last in any of the defensive metrics we track! Thank God for small miracles, right? Surely there won’t be any celebrations over this, but it does indicate one thing: they’re at least trending in the right direction, albeit at a snail’s pace. They’ve also been helped out by other defenses, mainly the Bengals, falling apart. One thing to note: Dan Quinn’s Commanders are last in EPA/dropback.

The hope is that four new players – at least new to this season – speed that up this week. Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have both been better against the run this season than anyone currently on the roster, while DeMarvion Overshown offers a major boost in both phases of the game.

Cowboys Pass Coverage

Here is where the Cowboys should expect to see the biggest change once they come out of the bye. DaRon Bland has struggled this year, but he’s been better in the slot. Having Shavon Revel on the outside allows Bland to play inside, and also gives Trikweze Bridges a rest after being targeted early and often since becoming a starter.

The linebacker duo of Kenneth Murray and Shemar James has also been really bad against the pass. With Overshown and Wilson now in town, there’s really no reason for either of them to play significant snaps on defense going forward, especially in passing downs. So take a good, long look at this table; if it doesn’t start to change dramatically in the next few weeks, not much else will matter for the Cowboys.

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