The moment the Green Bay Packers made the trade with the Dallas Cowboys for star edge rusher Micah Parsons, many people penciled the Pack in as this year’s team to beat. And after only suffering one loss over their first seven games of the year, they seemed poised to cash in on a big season as they had the best record in the NFC after the end of October.
Oddly enough, things have changed for the Packers, and they’ve changed in a hurry. After two straight losses, not only do they not have the best record in the conference, but they have fallen all the way down to the seventh seed. What a drastic change after just two losses. How did this happen?
Well, the short answer is that the other good teams in the NFC aren’t losing. Three teams have a 7-2 record (Eagles, Seahawks, and Rams), and three teams have a 6-3 record (Lions, Bucs, and Bears). The Packers trail all of those teams as they sit with a 5-3-1 record. Weirdly, that 40-40 tie they had with the Cowboys in Week 4 has put them in a precarious situation. The current playoff picture in the NFC looks as follows:
We can see that the San Francisco 49ers are right on their tails and are just a game back from stealing that final playoff spot from the Packers. How crazy would it be for them to miss the playoffs? Suddenly, that end-of-the-round draft pick would fall all the way up to the middle of the first round. That would be a huge draft win for the Cowboys.
But even if the Packers make the playoffs, that tie stands a good chance of hurting them. Let’s run down all the reasons why…
Getting that first-round bye seems very unlikely
Not only do the Eagles sit with a 7-2 record, but so do two NFC West teams, the Seahawks and Rams. For Green Bay to avoid wild card weekend, they’d need all three to slumber a bit down the stretch. That means the Packers will run the risk of being bounced in the wild card round, which would yield the Cowboys a draft pick in the low 20s.
Winning the division will be tough
The Packers currently sit in third place in the division behind the Lions and Bears. Detroit looks really good, and Chicago is on a heater, winning six of their last seven games. Had the Packers beaten the Cowboys, they would be 6-3 like these other two teams. This would put them in the three seed because they would win the tie-breaker by virtue of having a better division record. But ironically, tiebreakers aren’t likely to come into play for the Packers because of that tie. Failing to win the NFC North means no Lambeau Field during wild card weekend, and all playoff games will likely be on the road.
Tough path in the playoffs
First-round byes are fantastic, and winning the division and getting a home playoff game is pretty good too, but if it doesn’t happen, so what? Once you get to the dance, anything can happen. While that’s true, taking the scenic route can be hard, and if the Packers end up with one of the lower seeds in the playoffs, it could set the stage for an early exit. They could end up going on the road and facing whoever wins the NFC West or the Lions in the wild card game. That’s a tough first draw. Of course, the matchups won’t get easier if they survive, making it a tough road for the Packers come January.
It’s going to be a rough second half of the season for Cowboys’ fans. We hope to see some good football, but playoff chances are slim to none, so securing good draft capital is all we have left to cheer for. The Packers have a tough stretch of games coming. It’s not unrealistic to see them sputter to where they’re fighting for a playoff spot as the regular season closes. And how poetic would it be if that tie they had with the Cowboys ended up playing a crucial role in hurting their playoff positioning?
One last thing to add. Tying affects both teams. If a tie hurts the Packers’ record, then wouldn’t it also help the Cowboys’ record, offsetting any gains/losses they might receive by draft positioning? Depending on how things ultimately end up, the tie may have little to no effect on the draft positioning. Assuming more losses are on the horizon for Dallas, they will end up with a high draft pick. And if that tie somehow keeps the Packers out of the playoffs or helps with a first-round exit, then it will end up paying huge dividends come next April.
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