For at least one week, the Cowboys looked to have figured things out defensively. Matt Eberflus got a bit of a break in facing a Commanders offense that was without its top two receivers, but there was still plenty to feel good about in last week’s win. The Broncos, on the other hand, present a different type of challenge.
Sean Payton is the head coach and the play-caller, as he’s always been. The longtime head coach has a very well-established way of doing things, especially in how he calls his offense. It’s a big reason why he was never going to pair well with Russell Wilson when the two joined forces back in 2023, and a big reason why Payton pounded the table for Bo Nix in last year’s draft.
Payton is a strict adherent to the West Coast offense, largely owing to the fact that his first NFL job came as the quarterbacks coach for then-Eagles offensive coordinator Jon Gruden. Payton would later grow his profile, and develop his signature gruff personality, under Bill Parcells, first with the Giants and then the Cowboys.
The scheme, though, is all Gruden. It’s a very traditional West Coast offense, built on zone running and short, quick passes designed to make defenses cheat up. Payton caught lightning in a bottle with Drew Brees, and the chemistry between the two helped turn around the Saints franchise. The key to those offenses was knowing the exact right time to call the deep shot, and Brees was surgical on both the underneath stuff and the big plays.
In Nix, the longtime college quarterback who finished his studies at Oregon, Payton seemed to think he was finding the next Brees. Nix was a rhythm passer who excelled at the quick game and whose unusually long playing career in college gave him a leg up as far as being able to read defenses quickly. He also offers above-average athleticism, a necessity in today’s NFL.
Last year, Nix seemed to pick up Payton’s offense fast. Were it not for Jayden Daniels, Nix very well may have taken home the league’s highest rookie honors after helping lead Denver to the playoffs. Coming into this year, many anticipated Payton and Nix to reach the next level.
That hasn’t quite been the case.
The Broncos currently rank 14th in EPA/play and 19th in offensive DVOA. The run game has been their saving grace, too: Denver is 19th in EPA/dropback and 21st in pass DVOA while ranking 12th in EPA/rush and 15th in run DVOA.
Nix, in particular, has taken a step back. He’s completing just 62.5% of his passes with a -3.0 completion percentage over expected (CPOE); that’s 28th in the league, just narrowly ahead of rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Ward. Nix is also 20th in EPA/play, behind Dart and several backups in Mac Jones and Carson Wentz.
There are a few reasons for this, but much of it has to do with Payton. Once renowned as one of the game’s most creative offensive minds, Payton now appears to be playing catch up. Many of the criticisms that Mike McCarthy fielded during his tenure in Dallas are much more true of Payton than they ever were for McCarthy.
Namely, Payton is extremely predictable with his formations. He’s running 11 personnel on nearly 70% of his plays and Nix is lining up in the shotgun on just over 60% of plays. The worst part is that Payton refuses to help his quarterback with pre-snap motion: Denver has a player in motion at the snap just 26% of the time, and they use any sort of pre-snap movement just 48% of the time. The former is dead last in the league, while the latter is third from the bottom, only ahead of the Giants and Titans, who are starting rookie quarterbacks.
The crazy part is that Nix’s skill players are doing their part. The Broncos pass-catchers are averaging 3.7 yards of separation at the catch, tied for second in the league, while the run game is second in the league in rushing yards over expected (RYOE). Usually those two factors would lead to an explosive offense, but the Broncos are firmly in the middle of the pack, if not lower.
Nix is dealing with a sophomore slump and Payton seems uninterested in modifying his scheme to help out his struggling quarterback. Perhaps the only fix is facing the Cowboys defense, as it has been for several other teams this year. That said, Eberflus and his unit have a little swagger right now, and they may be looking to prove they’re no longer a get-right week for struggling offenses.
See More:
