As we near the midpoint of the season and the Cowboys sit in second place in the NFC East. And after the Eagles came incredibly close to losing their third consecutive game this weekend, one can envision a world where the Cowboys win this thing. You have to squint, sure, but it’s there.
Is it real, though? The win over the Commanders certainly felt encouraging, but what does the data say? Let’s dive into this week’s analytics roundup, where strength of schedule adjustments are nearly at full strength and resulting in some pretty marginal shifts in the hierarchy of the league.
Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance
DVOA |
DVOA Rank |
DVOA Rank Previous Rank |
Weighted DVOA |
Weighted DVOA Rank |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 20.4% | 4th | 7th | 20.4% | 4th |
| Defense | 15.4% | 30th | 31st | 15.1% | 30th |
| Special Teams | 3.0% | 9th | 8th | 3.0% | 9th |
| Overall | 8.0% | 9th | 17th | 8.3% | 10th |
Yes, that’s the Dallas Cowboys sitting at ninth place in the league in total team efficiency. They’re also sixth among NFC teams, just behind the Commanders in that regard.
The offense predictably jumped up several spots with the return of CeeDee Lamb. They were still doing great in his absence, but it’s obvious they’re a better unit with him out there. And the defense only made a small improvement, but they’re the only unit on this team with any distinction from their weighted DVOA – which puts more emphasis on the most recent games played – and their total DVOA.
The EPA-based team tiers haven’t changed much. The star logo is ever-so-gradually climbing upward, with their offense keeping them far to the right. Interestingly, they’re now in a tier ahead of both the Commanders and Eagles and just slightly ahead of the Broncos, their next opponent, in total EPA.
Offense
Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Offensive DVOA | 20.4% | 4th |
| Pass DVOA | 39.0% | 5th |
| Run DVOA | 7.0% | 3rd |
| EPA/Play | 0.183 | 2nd |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.292 | 3rd |
| EPA/Rush | -0.012 | 5th |
Here’s a challenge: find something the Cowboys aren’t top five in right now. There are some stats out there, but boy is it tough to find. Brian Schottenheimer has been lightyears ahead of even the most optimistic expectations anyone had for him as a play-caller. He’s even surpassing Mike McCarthy’s stellar 2023 season so far.
That year saw elite passing numbers, not unlike this season, but the run game was much closer to the middle of the pack. The most impressive part about this offense is how balanced it is; the Colts are the only other team right now to be top five in both passing and rushing efficiency according to either DVOA or EPA/play.
Dak Prescott’s Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| QBR | 81.2 | 1st |
| EPA/play | 0.296 | 4th |
| CPOE | 5.0 | 7th |
| EPA+CPOE Composite | 0.183 | 6th |
| Success Rate | 48.5% | 15th |
Heading into this weekend, the only quarterback who was rivaling Dak Prescott’s gaudy stats was Baker Mayfield, whom many were starting to discuss as an MVP candidate. Well, Mayfield collapsed against the Lions on Monday, while Prescott continued to climb the leaderboards in just about every metric.
He’s still only seventh in MVP betting odds, but the team record has a lot to do with that. Make no mistake: Prescott is playing the best ball of his career, and it’s come in a myriad of ways with several impact players missing key games. What he’s doing is absolutely MVP-worthy right now.
Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Pressure Rate | 29.8% | 7th |
| Adjusted Sack Rate | 3.8% | 2nd |
| Pass Block Win Rate | 69% | 3rd |
| Run Block Win Rate | 72% | 11th |
| Adjusted Line Yards | 4.76 | 6th |
All these numbers are trending in the right direction, especially in pass protection. Prescott has done a lot to help his line out there, especially his tackles, but the offensive line has really stepped it up as a unit. The run game has been great too: on third and fourth downs with two yards or less to go, Dallas is rushing for a first down 82% of the time. That’s tied for fourth-best in the league. They’re also getting stuffed on runs at the sixth-lowest rate.
The news of Cooper Beebe’s practice window being activated is very welcome news, too. Brock Hoffman has done an admirable job in the interim, and he’s exactly the type of teammate you want in the locker room, but he’s struggled at times. There’s now been three fumbles due to the snap exchange under center, and Hoffman is 12th among centers in pressures allowed despite not starting the first two weeks of the season.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Defensive DVOA | 15.4% | 30th |
| Pass Defense DVOA | 28.5% | 27th |
| Run Defense DVOA | 0.1% | 27th |
| Pressure Rate | 37.4% | 9th |
| Pass Rush Win Rate | 37% | 21st |
| Run Stop Win Rate | 32% | 7th |
| EPA/Play | 0.150 | 30th |
| EPA/Dropback Allowed | 0.222 | 30th |
| EPA/Rush Allowed | 0.036 | 28th |
Matt Eberflus deserves serious credit for this week’s game. He called significantly more blitzes, significantly more press coverages, and significantly more man coverage than he had any week this season. He made wholesale changes to his scheme in order to fit his players and it paid off in a huge way.
The pass rush, in particular, exploded. They’re now up to 37.4% pressure rate on the year, tied with the Lions for ninth in the league. Yes, the same Lions defense that just shut down Baker Mayfield and his burgeoning MVP campaign. There’s still room for improvement, but this was a very clear step in the right direction.
Cowboys Pass Coverage
Targets |
Completions |
Completion Rate |
Passer Rating Allowed |
ADOT When Targeted |
Air Yards Allowed |
Yards After Catch |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Diggs | 15 | 11 | 73.3% | 154.9 | 16.9 | 172 | 44 |
| DaRon Bland | 30 | 20 | 66.7% | 82.5 | 9.7 | 121 | 78 |
| Kaiir Elam | 31 | 19 | 61.3% | 121.0 | 13.5 | 208 | 57 |
| Reddy Steward | 21 | 19 | 90.5% | 97.8 | 3.8 | 33 | 124 |
| Trikweze Bridges | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 118.8 | 15.0 | 53 | 11 |
| Malik Hooker | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | 158.3 | 20.3 | 72 | 40 |
| Donovan Wilson | 18 | 14 | 77.8% | 102.8 | 11.4 | 120 | 36 |
| Juanyeh Thomas | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 143.8 | 2.3 | 7 | 20 |
| Markquese Bell | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 97.1 | 7.0 | 24 | 30 |
| Jack Sanborn | 12 | 11 | 91.7% | 107.3 | 7.2 | 61 | 56 |
| Marist Liufau | 11 | 10 | 90.9% | 146.2 | 4.5 | 33 | 97 |
| Kenneth Murray | 32 | 25 | 78.1% | 97.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 182 |
| Shemar James | 16 | 16 | 100.0% | 131.8 | 4.1 | 65 | 105 |
| Damone Clark | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 84.2 | 4.7 | 17 | 21 |
As mentioned, the Cowboys changed up their coverage techniques this week. How did it pay off? Well, DaRon Bland easily had his best game of the season. Even outside of the pick-six, he gave up completions on just 50% of his targets and made two stops on third down. Kaiir Elam was even better, giving up just two completions despite being targeted seven times.
Trikweze Bridges was also promoted to the starting lineup, with Reddy Steward getting a rest while Bland moved back into the slot. It clearly agreed with Bland, and Bridges was solid too. He was only targeted three times and gave up two completions, both of them deep shots, but he also gave up just one yard after the catch. It wasn’t anything special, but Bridges didn’t get burned or caught out of place in the coverage. That’s been a big ask recently for this defense.
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