The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a disappointing performance last week against the Carolina Panthers, one that’s reignited the discourse on defense and ratcheted it up to 11. However, they have to pull things together this week as they host the Washington Commanders, where a win would place them in second place in the NFC East.
Right now, Dallas is a slight favorite, by just 1.5 points. That’s largely due to two receivers’ injury statuses: CeeDee Lamb is making his return, while Terry McLaurin will be out for the Commanders. Is that really enough to swing things in the Cowboys’ favor? Our writers have differing opinions.
When Washington has the ball
Keep Jayden Daniels in the pocket
Jayden Daniels was a phenom last year as a rookie. So far this year, it hasn’t been the same rousing success, but Daniels has still been productive. However, his biggest weapon remains his mobility. Whether it’s throwing dimes from outside the pocket or tucking and running, Daniels is at his best when moving around.
The best defenses have managed to have success by keeping him hemmed into the pocket. One way this has been accomplished is with well-timed blitzes and defensive ends that keep contain, rather than just trying to rush the passer. When facing a blitz, for example, Daniels is 26th in EPA/dropback. Matt Eberflus isn’t typically a blitzer, but that’s what needs to be done in order to stop this offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Air it out
The Cowboys have one of the most dominant offenses in the league right now without CeeDee Lamb. Now, they get the All Pro back (along with KaVontae Turpin, who’s no slouch either) to upgrade an already stellar unit. The Cowboys should have success on the ground – Dan Quinn’s defense is still fairly susceptible to the run game – but the air is where they’ll really have an advantage.
Coming into this game, Washington is 20th in EPA/dropback and giving up the sixth-most yards per pass; they’re also surrendering the fifth-most yards after the catch. Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. have relied heavily on the blitz – 10th in blitz rate – and it’s bitten them. Dak Prescott is firing on all cylinders, but he’s especially great against the blitz. A pass-happy approach in this one would make lots of sense.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (3-2-1):
I am concerned the Cowboys are on a downward slide, but things are kinda wonky across the league. Still, it seems unlikely the defense can sort things out.
Commanders 37, Cowboys 33.
Matt Holleran (4-1-1):
It’s hard to say a Week Seven game is a make-or-break matchup, but that’s exactly what this Sunday is for the Dallas Cowboys. If they win, there is still a plausible path for them to be a playoff team. If they lose, it’s time to turn their focus towards the 2026 season.
I have plenty of confidence the Cowboys will be able to move the ball, particularly on the ground, against the Commanders’ defense. I have no confidence Dallas’ defense will be able to register even a singular stop against Washington’s offense. At the end of the day, I see Dallas’ defense being unable to get a key stop, causing the Cowboys to drop this one.
Give me Washington, 33-27.
Mike Poland (2-3-1):
This game for Dallas hinges on two very crucial pressure points. On the offensive side, how does Hoffman and Bass handle the Washington defensive front. If the Commanders get to dive into their bag of tricks and start stunting across the line we could see another day where the Cowboys center/guard position start struggle again.
On the defensive side it’s all about the edge defenders. They need stay inside the lines, hold that edge and don’t allow Croskey-Merritt or Jayden Daniels to rush at free will. If both sides execute this is a win for Dallas, fail and we have ourselves another Panthers fiasco. Let’s hedge our bets that Dallas has learned from last week’s mistakes and call this a win inside AT&T.
Cowboys 35, Commanders 28.
Brian Martin (3-2-1):
I think this game is going to be a shootout and whoever has the ball last likely ends up with the “W”. With home field advantage and offensive reinforcements (CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin, Tyler Booker), the Cowboys should have a slight advantage.
Score prediction: Cowboys 37, Commanders 34.
Jess Haynie (3-2-1):
Another narrow loss as Dallas can’t stop Washington from a game-winning field goal.
Commanders 31, Cowboys 30.
David Howman (2-3-1):
I can’t explain why, but I have a lot of confidence in the Cowboys right now. I think Brian Schottenheimer sticking his neck out for Matt Eberflus this past week also results in several material changes to the scheme, and I think we all expect this offense to reach a new level with CeeDee Lamb coming back.
The Commanders have been up-and-down this season, and Jayden Daniels in particular has had some struggles along the way. Losing Terry McLaurin for this one certainly hurts, and I think that gives Dallas the edge. I’m not expecting a defensive domination, but I also don’t see this one being particularly close.
Cowboys win 37-24.
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