What a difference a week makes.
It feels like ages ago now, but last week the Cowboys were coming off a dominant win over the Jets that restored hope in the defense while offering continued optimism in the offense.
The latter part is still there, largely thanks to Dak Prescott playing at an MVP level, but the defense reverted back to its worst form and cost the team a win over the middling Panthers. Now, all that hope is gone, replaced by the soul crushing cynicism that has marked much of the past eight months for Cowboys fans.
Is there anything good left in this world? Our own Tom Ryle and David Howman have some thoughts.
Tom: I’ll give you something that could be good. Every team in the NFC East has at least two losses, so from a standings viewpoint, Dallas is right there in the thick of things. The next game is against the Washington Commanders, and a win against the team that just dropped a close one to the Chicago Bears would certainly make us all feel better. The Cowboys certainly have the offense as they lead the league in yards per game and are third in points scored.
Now for the bad news: You don’t get to 2-3-1 with that kind of offensive output unless your defense is epically putrid. Each week, they seem to either make the opposing QB look like Tom Brady with a stronger arm, or the lead back is racking up yards like Adrian Peterson in his prime. Unless they can fix things, they are destined for another dismal finish.
Doubts abound about coming up with any kind of solution. In his weekly hit on 92.1 the Team, the local sports station for East Texas, Mickey Spagnola laid out what may be the biggest concern. They simply don’t have the players they need to win at the line of scrimmage. They can’t really do much if anything about that now. Those draft picks they got for Micah Parsons may lead to some future solutions, but those are not going to help now, and we will likely see another year of Dak’s prime slip away.
David: With all due respect to Mr. Spagnola, I don’t even think it’s that deep. They have the players in the trenches to win, but not in this scheme.
Matt Eberflus wants his defensive tackles to get up the field and penetrate. Osa Odighizuwa and Solomon Thomas excel there, and Kenny Clark has been better than expected in that regard. But when it’s all you do, offenses know that. Week after week, we’re seeing oodles of trap and wham concepts in the run game that spring loose, at which point the running back is able to juke Kenneth Murray (it’s always Kenneth Murray, for some reason) out of his shoes for a huge gain. In fact, each of the last two weeks, Dallas has surrendered at least six runs of 10+ yards, leading the league for both weeks.
The pass rush is slightly less concerning to me. They’re actually eighth in pressure rate, but the problem is they hardly get to the quarterback because there’s wide open guys to throw to. That’s another scheme issue: this secondary is built for press man and pattern matching Cover 3, but Eberflus has them running Cover 2 and Cover 4 while giving massive cushions pre-snap.
The scheme doesn’t fit the players at any level, which begs the question of why Eberflus – who, it should be noted, is simply running the scheme he’s always run throughout his career – was hired in the first place.
Tom: And that begs another question: Is Eberflus a Schottenheimer guy or a Jerry guy? If it’s the former, the head coach needs to admit he made a mistake and move on now, or just accept this as a tank year to maximize draft position. If this was a hire made by the GM/owner, then he needs to make the same decision. That is a more challenging situation, because Mr. Jones detests admitting he messed up.
It seems all but impossible for the DC to change his approach, since as you noted this is just who he is. That is a bit of evidence that this was another hire of someone that is familiar to Jerry rather than trying to find someone whose scheme and philosophy fits the players available. Given past history, the most likely outcome will be that management stands pat until the end of the season and then replace Eberflus.
That is a depressing thought. This looks to be a season fated for failure. And as with so much about the Cowboys, it all comes down to the dysfunction at the top.
David: I’m in agreement on your hunch that Eberflus was picked by the owner, but Schottenheimer also bears some culpability in allowing it to happen. Jerry has always made his preferences known when it comes to staffing, but if Schottenheimer had put his foot down on hiring a different coordinator – for example, there’s no way Jerry knew who Klayton Adams was – then he could have had his way.
It’s not even a terrible hire in a vacuum, either. Eberflus has a sterling track record on defense, and that’s no coincidence. He’s just a bad fit for this personnel. Sooner or later, the players will either acclimate to his system or Eberflus will acclimate to his players. The question isn’t so much which happens first but rather how quickly either happens.
The issue for me is that this offense is too good to waste on a miserable defense. They’re a top five unit right now, and CeeDee Lamb is coming back. They may very well finish out as the unquestionable top offense in the league. In most years, that’s enough to get you to the playoffs, at the absolute bare minimum.
And, as you noted, the NFC East is wide open right now. A win over the Commanders this week could change everything, too. But it’ll take something working right on defense to get there and, as we’ve found out already, that’s much easier said than done.
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