It’s easy to talk about how a team might respond following a loss, but what about a tie? How does a team feel after pouring their heart and soul into a game for four quarters, and then overtime, just to come away with nothing to show for it? The Cowboys are about to find out.
They travel up north to face a winless Jets team, hoping to avoid a similar fate to when they traveled up north to face a winless Bears team. Like Week 2, Dallas is favored, but do our writers feel confident that this one will turn out different? Let’s take a look.
When New York has the ball
Contain Justin Fields
The Jets turned a new page at quarterback, signing former first-round pick Justin Fields, who is himself looking to turn a new page. So far, he’s been the primary source of offensive production for the team: he’s tied for ninth in the league in yards per pass attempt, and he trails Jalen Hurts by just one yard for the lead in quarterback rushing. As a whole, Fields is seventh among quarterbacks in overall success rate.
Fields is at his best when using his physical traits – lightning fast speed and a cannon for an arm – to break defenses. The Cowboys haven’t mad much problem being broken by any quarterback this year, and they’ve been especially susceptible to mobile quarterbacks. Keeping Fields in the pocket and limiting big plays will be key to minimizing his impact, which would seriously hinder this offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Stay ahead of schedule
So far, the Cowboys offense hasn’t had much trouble moving the ball. They’re in the top five in a ton of different categories, and they actually got better (statistically, that is) without CeeDee Lamb this past week. Now, they’re facing a Jets defense that has done little to slow any offense this year.
That said, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is a tough man to scheme against. Brian Schottenheimer faced off against Wilks back in 2018, when it was Seahawks vs Cardinals, and his Seattle offense averaged -0.041 EPA/play in those games; they averaged 0.093 EPA/play the rest of the year. A big part of that is Wilks’ deep bag of exotic blitzes he likes to unleash on third downs. The Cowboys’ best bet is to avoid third down altogether by staying ahead of schedule and converting early in the series.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (2-1-1):
Which team will we see? I’m thinking they are a bit cautious but can still get it done on offense, while the defense gets just enough stops.
Cowboys 27 Jets 20.
Matt Holleran (3-0-1):
With all the injuries Dallas is dealing with on the offensive side of the ball, the Cowboys are going to need some unexpected heroes to step up if they want to win this game. To that point, I see Jaydon Blue and Ryan Flournoy doing just that, providing a much-needed spark for Dallas’ offense. Dak continues playing like an MVP, and Dallas’ defense, for the first time all season, makes a play when they have to.
Give me the Cowboys, 27-23.
Mike Poland (1-2-1):
Expect a scrappy game here. The Jets are 0-4 and hunting that first victory of the year so they’ll want to bring all the trick plays and RPO calls out on the field to get a home win. Sure, the Cowboys are missing pieces at wide receiver this week and on the offensive line. But the Jets front four aren’t getting home much, only four sacks this year. That goes in Dallas’ favor as they try to control the offense and also the clock to help its defense.
Cowboys win this one 31-21.
Brian Martin (2-1-1):
I think the Jets are a lot better team than their 0-4 record would suggest, giving me a bad feeling about this Week 5 matchup for the Dallas Cowboys. I think it’s going to be a really close, low-scoring game, but one Dallas manages to eke out the victory.
Score prediction: Cowboys 16, Jets 13.
Jess Haynie (2-1-1):
Cowboys offense keeps rolling against a struggling Jets D.
Cowboys 33, Jets 24.
David Howman 1-2-1):
I feel pretty confident about this one, until I remember the Week 3 game. I felt just as confident about the Cowboys, fresh off an overtime game, going on the road against a winless team led by a former Dan Campbell assistant. But this time, I think it’s real.
Here’s my hot take: the Cowboys defense will actually look good in this one. Justin Fields is a problem when he’s clicking on all cylinders, but I see the Dallas pass rush (or lack thereof) actually working in their favor and baiting Fields into his worst tendencies: holding onto the ball too long, forcing it into tight coverage, and otherwise stalling out his offense. As for the Cowboys’ own offense, I think they’ll continue to roll, especially on the ground.
Cowboys win 34-10.
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