The Cowboys defense has had a rough go of things this year. Perhaps you’ve noticed. Matt Eberflus and his entire unit are under fire, both from fans and opposing offenses, and there doesn’t seem to be much promise on the horizon. However, the Jets have frequently been a get-right team for defenses over the years, and may offer the same kind of respite this week.
It’s a new era in Gotham City, as Lions defensive coordinator and former Jets first-round pick Aaron Glenn is leading the team in his first go at being a head coach. Unsurprisingly, Glenn sought to replicate the magic of that Lions resurgence by bringing Tanner Engstrand along as his offensive coordinator.
Engstrand had been on Dan Campbell’s staff in Detroit since the beginning, and he held the title of pass game coordinator for all three years that Ben Johnson was cooking defenses every Sunday. Many believed Engstrand was the heir apparent to Johnson, but he opted to follow Glenn to New Jersey and help rebuild a franchise that’s never been known for high-scoring offenses.
This is Engstrand’s first opportunity to call plays at the NFL level, though he held that role for the San Diego Torreros of the FCS back in 2011. In short, Engstrand is very much learning on the job, just as Glenn is doing so as head coach. The two of them know what it takes to revive a long dormant program, but knowing and doing are two different things.
Through four games, Engstrand’s offense has been a mixed bag. They rank 21st in both EPA/play and offensive DVOA, yet they’ve scored three or more touchdowns in all but one game this year. They’ve also done this amidst a barrage of injuries, namely to their quarterback.
This past offseason, the Jets brought in Justin Fields to be their new starter. Similar to how the Dan Campbell era began with bringing in Jared Goff, who many had written off, Glenn and Engstrand saw similar value in Fields. The former first-round pick is still just 26 and went 4-2 as a starter last year with the Steelers after being dragged down by some miserable teams in Chicago.
To that end, much of what Engstrand’s scheme has evolved into is a result of Fields being the quarterback.
Johnson, who we profiled a couple weeks ago, crafted the Lions’ juggernaut offense out of what his players did best. Goff was most comfortable operating under center with play action, and Detroit had a loaded offensive line. Thus, Johnson built a run-heavy scheme that sucked linebackers in on every play action pass, giving Goff wide open skill players to throw to.
Fields is a very different player. He’s a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who has typically excelled on deep passes, but tends to have trouble with the finer points of the position, such as pre-snap diagnosis and playing within structure.
So far, Engstrand has crafted an offense that caters to Fields’ strengths. They’re lining up in shotgun at one of the highest rates in the league, something Fields did almost exclusively in both high school and college. Fields is also torching defenses with his legs, currently 27th among all players in rushing; just over half of his rushing attempts are designed runs, and only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards on designed quarterback runs.
The Jets haven’t really uncorked the long ball much yet for Fields, with only three quarterbacks throwing 20+ yards downfield fewer times. That said, Fields is hitting on 75% of such throws with two touchdowns and zero picks. Against a Cowboys defense that seems to give up deep shots every other play, Engstrand is surely salivating at the opportunities to open up the playbook.
The problem for the Jets, though, is that not much else is working outside of doing what’s already in Fields’ comfort zone.
The run game looks good on paper – they’re averaging 5.2 yards per carry, third-best in the NFL – but much of that is inflated by Fields. Breece Hall is posting -5.0 EPA/rush and his rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is practically zero; in other words, he’s not making any plays beyond what his offensive line is giving him. Hall’s primary backup, Braelon Allen, was also just added to the injured reserve.
Speaking of that offensive line, they lost their top player – Alijah Vera-Tucker – right before the season started. That prompted a last second rearrangement, and things still haven’t settled down yet. They’re giving up a 51.1% pressure rate, worst in the league, and are getting stuffed on 18% of their runs. Neither of those numbers are good enough to cut it in the NFL.
That said, it might be good enough against the Cowboys. After all, Dallas has looked allergic to rushing the passer, though the run defense has been stout. This is a matchup between two units that are off to a bad start and looking to get right. Which one will answer the call? Offense usually has an easier time getting back on track, and this is a home game for the Jets, but you can’t count out Dallas after they showed some promise last week, albeit by way of mere glimmers.
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