The Dallas Cowboys will host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. These two teams have a long history, from the Ice Bowl to many memorable playoff battles within the last ten years. After dominating the Pack in the playoffs in the ‘90s, it’s Green Bay that now has the Cowboys’ numbers, ending their season three times since 2014. And the last matchup in 2023 still lingers heavily in the hearts of Cowboys fans.
At the moment, it feels like these two teams are heading in two different directions. After a blockbuster trade that sent Micah Parsons to the Midwest, the Packers are poised for a deep playoff run. Conversely, the Cowboys are still trying to find their way as they work through a year that includes a new coaching staff. On the surface, many aren’t expecting much in what could be a lopsided affair. It certainly could go down like that, but Cowboys fans are hoping for a different result. Here are five things to keep an eye on when these two teams square off under the NBC lights.
1. Micah’s Revenge
Let’s immediately address the elephant in the room, or the lion in this case. Micah Parsons is one of the game’s most disruptive defensive players. We spent the entire summer navigating a supposed contract dilemma that ultimately led to him being traded to the Packers a week before the season started. People can pretend to make nice and act like there is no ill will, as Parsons has repeatedly said positive things about his former team, but make no mistake about it, he will be on the prowl. He is such a competitor, and you know he is licking his chops at the idea of attacking Terence Steele and Tyler Guyton. To this point, Parsons has been relatively quiet, yet to have a multi-sack game with his new team. Expect that to change as he attempts to feast against the team that drafted him.
2. The Clark Effect
It’s no surprise that the Cowboys’ pass rush has taken a hit without the services of Parsons, but at least their run defense has improved. As a team, they only give up 3.7 yards per rush, ranking them inside the top 10. The addition of Kenny Clark has helped the team get better. Last season, the Cowboys’ defense ranked in the bottom eight in tackling the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, with a rate of just 37.4%. This season, they have improved to 60.6%, the second-highest rate in the league.
Running the ball isn’t the Packers’ strength as they only average 3.4 yards per carry, fifth-worst in the league. This is a bit surprising considering they have the talented Josh Jacobs in the backfield; however, Jacobs is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry so far this season, the lowest output of his career. The offensive line has played a role here. Keeping the Green Bay ground game in check will be important, but doing so without committing additional support is crucial.
3. Love will find a way
Even if the Cowboys can keep the Pack relatively grounded, the big issue will be stopping Jordan Love and the passing attack. The Green Bay quarterback has been very efficient through the air, completing 68% of his passes for a 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. And it’s only going to get easier against a Cowboys’ defense that gives up a league-worst 9.0 yards per passing attempt.
No one has used zone coverage more than the Cowboys’ new defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus. His 93.4% usage of zone is the highest rate in seven seasons. And they’re not good at it. The team surrenders 9.4 yards in zone this season, the second-most in the league. To make matters even worse, Love eats up zone coverage. He has completed 76% of his passes for 417 yards at a rate of 9.9 yards per attempt against zone coverage, the most in the NFL. If the Cowboys’ defense doesn’t get creative and find a way to change it up, Love, like other QBs this season, should continue to have their way in the secondary.
4. Krafty in the open field
The Cowboys will try to get their running game going against a Packers defense that only yields 3.4 yards per rush, third-best in the league. How effective they are will be a big factor in what the Dallas offense can do on Sunday. But that doesn’t mean this should come in the form of a heavy workload for the Cowboys’ running backs. They should also look for ways to supplement the run with quick passes and creative ways to get yards after the catch. Expect the typical heavy use of Jake Ferguson bootlegs. The Cowboys’ tight end leads the team in receptions.
The Packers also have a tight end who leads the team in receptions, as third-year player Tucker Kraft has been a frequent target for Love. In Week 2, Kraft put up a 124-yard game against Washington. While the deep shots will sting the most, don’t be surprised if the Packers go to their tight end when they need to move the sticks, with Kraft being a name we hear far too often on Sunday.
5. It’s still Dak dependent
Dak Prescott is a good quarterback. He has the résumé to back it up, especially in the regular season. However, that success doesn’t always follow when it comes to the Packers, which is weird considering his breakout game in his rookie season came in an impressive performance at Lambeau Field in 2016. Unfortunately, Prescott hasn’t beaten the Packers since, losing five-straight games against them, including twice in the playoffs. In fact, no team has beaten Dak more times in his career than the Packers.
The Packers could be Dak’s kryptonite, and who knows, maybe one day, Prescott will buck this trend. If the Cowboys are to have any chance in this one, they will need Prescott to be in his bag on this day. Dak still has weapons, and the offense can’t simply wilt because they are banged up. Prescott and this offense must find a way to be productive, and if he can perform up to his ability, the Cowboys always have a chance.
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