If you hated what you watched in week two of the Cowboys 40-37 win over the New York Giants, you probably will want to avoid watching the Cowboys week three matchup against the Chicago Bears. Heading into the game, both the Cowboys and Bears strengths and weaknesses are eerily similar.
Despite struggles from Caleb Williams, the Chicago Bears receiving corps is off to a nice start to the 2025 season. Second-year wideout Rome Odunze and veteran D.J. Moore are doing well despite not really lighting up the box score. Both Moore and Odunze rank out well above league average in separation score, and that is a scary sight for a Cowboys defense that is coming off a historically bad day against Russell Wilson, Malik Nabers, and Wan’Dale Robinson. The good news for the Cowboys defense is for all the good the Bears’ wideouts are doing, quarterback Caleb Williams is struggling to connect with his wideouts consistently.
Through two weeks, Williams holds the second longest time to throw, while ranking out right at league average in average depth of target. Along with some struggles to hit the explosives consistently, Williams’ accuracy has also been a struggle on the deep ball, ranking out league average in deep ball accuracy. That could give the Cowboys secondary a chance to get turnovers. As concerned as we are with the Cowboys defense, especially in the passing game, the Bears are currently in a very similar boat with their pass defense.
Before we move on, a bit of fantasy football advice. Make sure you have CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore in your lineups.
Through two weeks, the Cowboys rank 31st and the Bears rank 30th in dropback EPA and 31st (Bears) and 30th (Cowboys) in dropback success rate. If it’s still unclear, both pass defenses are bad, really bad. As big of a day as it should be for Lamb and Pickens, the Cowboys will have their hands full slowing down Odunze and Moore.
Thankfully, when you dig into the analytics more, the Cowboys have a massive advantage at the quarterback position heading into this matchup with Dak Prescott ranking out as the 10th best quarterback in adjusted EPA/play, compared to Williams ranking out as the 28th best quarterback by the same metric.
As much as this game feels like it will come down to whatever passing offense can out-duel the other, it will likely come down to whichever pass defense can step up. It has been as bad as it can be for both units through two games, but this would be a great week for a Trevon Diggs, Kaiir Elam, Reddy Stewart, and Donovan Wilson bounce-back game to help lead the Cowboys to their second victory of the 2025 season.
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