The Cowboys got themselves in the win column in Week 2, beating the Giants in overtime in a game that was wildly entertaining television for anyone that wasn’t a fan of these two teams. As for Cowboys fans, how should you be feeling after two games?
Welcome to the second installment of this year’s analytics roundup, in which we’ll seek to answer that very question with hard, unemotional data. Before we dive in, just a reminder that all DVOA-related grades do not yet account for strength of schedule, since it’s too early in the season for that. Similarly, many of these data points are still susceptible to sample size errors, but there’s still value to be pulled from the data.
Let’s dive in!
Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance
DVOA |
DVOA Rank |
DVOA Rank Previous Week |
DAVE |
DAVE Rank |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 21.7% | 4th | 6th | 0.1% | 15th |
| Defense | 26.7% | 29th | 28th | 2.3% | 24th |
| Special Teams | 5.8% | 8th | 14th | 0.2% | 13th |
| Overall | 0.8% | 17th | 14th | -2.0% | 16th |
The Cowboys saw their overall team DVOA grade increase – they were just barely in the negative after Week 1 – but they moved back three spots in the rankings. What does that mean? In short, the Cowboys played more efficiently in Week 2, but other teams made a bigger leap.
Notably, special teams made a significant jump despite accounting for half the team’s penalties. Hitting a 64-yard field goal to force overtime, and then kicking the game-winner, will do that. All hail Brandon Aubrey.
Last week’s look at the EPA-based team tiers highlighted the fact that the Cowboys were in the quadrant that denotes “good offense, bad defense” teams, but with room to move into the top right quadrant. Well, they’ve moved further into their current quadrant, and that’s unsurprising after Sunday’s defensive showing.
Notably, the Cowboys are nearly even with the Commanders in total team EPA/play, and not too far behind the Eagles either. Their next opponent, the Bears, are currently sitting in the worst quadrant and competing vigorously to be the worst team in the league through two weeks.
Offense
Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Offensive DVOA | 21.7% | 4th |
| Pass DVOA | 30.8% | 10th |
| Run DVOA | 20.4% | 3rd |
| EPA/Play | 0.141 | 7th |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.181 | 11th |
| EPA/Rush | 0.056 | 9th |
Here’s the good news: the offense looks to be legit. The only metric in which they don’t currently rank in the top 10 is EPA/dropback, which isn’t too far behind at 11th. The run game had another good performance, and Javonte Williams is looking very, very good.
How good? Williams is currently fifth among all running backs in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt, and he’s second in EPA/rush. He’s outperforming the league’s best backs, including Falcons star Bijan Robinson and top draft pick Ashton Jeanty. Miles Sanders has been decent, too: his +49 RYOE is second in the league, though his per play numbers are just pedestrian.
Dak Prescott’s Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| QBR | 65.2 | 14th |
| EPA/play | 0.171 | 12th |
| CPOE | 1.4 | 15th |
| EPA+CPOE Composite | 0.115 | 11th |
| Success Rate | 45.1% | 26th |
Dak Prescott’s game was once again an interesting one to decipher. Last week, drops and a lack of touchdowns hurt his efficiency, but this week Prescott was playing some legitimately poor football. That is, until the fourth quarter started.
To put it into perspective just how Jekyll/Hyde his performance was, Prescott’s EPA/play through the first three quarters was a pedestrian 0.094, good for 17th among quarterbacks. After that, though, he posted an absurd 0.355 EPA/play, fourth-best in that span. Prescott saved his best for the biggest moments.
Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Pressure Rate | 35.9% | 16th |
| Adjusted Sack Rate | 3.7% | 4th |
| Pass Block Win Rate | 67% | 12th |
| Run Block Win Rate | 72% | 14th |
| Adjusted Line Yards | 4.49 | 8th |
The offensive line saw some regression across the board this week. They took a step back in every metric, with a jarring discrepancy between pressure rate and adjusted sack rate that highlights how much work Prescott is doing to stay off his back. The run blocking was good enough, but still not to the level Dallas showed in Week 1.
The bigger concern right now is in the middle, as Cooper Beebe is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an injury. Brock Hoffman nearly gave the ball to the Giants late with a bad snap, and now he’ll make his first start of the season on the road in Chicago.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive Efficiency
Grade |
Rank |
|
|---|---|---|
| Defensive DVOA | 26.7% | 29th |
| Pass Defense DVOA | 50.9% | 29th |
| Run Defense DVOA | -4.4% | 23rd |
| Pressure Rate | 37.2% | 11th |
| Pass Rush Win Rate | 33% | 20th |
| Run Stop Win Rate | 36% | 4th |
| EPA/Play | 0.195 | 30th |
| EPA/Dropback Allowed | 0.349 | 31st |
| EPA/Rush Allowed | -0.065 | 17th |
The offense is doing so well that shifting gears to talk about the defense feels kind of like taking a drink of something flavorful right after brushing your teeth: it’s disgusting. The silver lining is that Dallas doesn’t rank last in any metric (thank God for the Dolphins), but they’re flirting with the cellar.
The run defense is not half bad, though it’s hardly a strength. More than anything, Matt Eberflus needs more pass rush to help out his secondary, which also needs to figure out how to keep receivers in front of them. Jadeveon Clowney is an immediate aid for the former, while the imminent return of DaRon Bland should help with the latter.
Cowboys Pass Coverage
Targets |
Completions |
Completion Rate |
Passer Rating Allowed |
ADOT When Targeted |
Air Yards Allowed |
Yards After Catch |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Diggs | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 158.3 | 28.0 | 97 | 104 |
| DaRon Bland | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 89.6 | -0.5 | -1 | 12 |
| Kaiir Elam | 14 | 12 | 85.7% | 106.0 | 11.2 | 98 | 34 |
| Reddy Steward | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 71.3 | 12.4 | 15 | 8 |
| Malik Hooker | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 118.8 | 22.7 | 68 | 40 |
| Donovan Wilson | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 95.4 | 21.6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jack Sanborn | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | 113.3 | 9.8 | 49 | 7 |
| Marist Liufau | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 102.1 | -1.5 | -3 | 20 |
| Kenneth Murray | 11 | 9 | 81.8% | 85.2 | 1.6 | 12 | 37 |
| Damone Clark | 6 | 5 | 83.3% | 93.1 | 2.5 | 17 | 21 |
Speaking of the secondary, yikes. Trevon Diggs was not targeted once the previous week, so his numbers here are just from the Giants game. He surrendered a perfect passer rating and got burned bad for a touchdown. Kaiir Elam continues to be picked on, and Kenneth Murray’s weaknesses in coverage continue to be an issue.
Reddy Steward made his Cowboys debut and performed well, relatively speaking. He led the secondary in both coverage grade and run defense grade, from Pro Football Focus, though he didn’t play as many snaps as Diggs or Elam. Still, it’s something to work with.
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