Predicting what a new contract for Micah Parsons could look like

How much would a new contract for Parsons cost the Cowboys?

Lately there has been some talk about movement on a deal with Micah Parsons. Recently there was a flurry of posts between Jane Slater of NFL Network and Terence Parsons. The latter is the brother of Micah Parsons, and without outright saying it, he alluded that the Cowboys and his brother have at least had talks regarding a new contract for the All-Pro defender. The national media has dispelled the notion that the negotiations that have been held are substantial.

Let’s first examine why Parsons deserves a new contract. Parsons is the most impactful defender the Cowboys have had since DeMarcus Ware. Parsons has been named to four Pro Bowls and 2 First-Team All-Pro selections (2021& 2022). With 52.5 sacks to begin his career, Parsons is in elite company, sixth all-time in NFL history for the most sacks in a player’s first four year seasons in the league, trailing only Ware, J.J. Watt, Derrick Thomas, Mark Gastineau, and Reggie White.

As for how much Parsons should get, one must consider the current market for players at Parsons’ position. Recently, Cleveland Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett agreed to a new contract with the team on a deal worth $160M over four years. Other contracts neighboring Garrett are Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby ($35M per year) and San Francisco’s Nick Bosa ($34M per year). You can expect Parsons’ beginning price to start somewhere between Garrett and Crosby.

As for the guarantees, when you examine Garrett’s contract, $123.5M out of the $160M is guaranteed (77%). As for Crosby, $91.5M of his $106.5M (85%) is assured, albeit on a shorter three-year commitment. Suppose the “floor” of Parsons’ contract is between Crosby’s and Garrett’s salary; the ceiling of Parsons’ yearly value has to be higher than Garrett’s. Parsons is five years younger, and while Garrett and Bosa are athletic for edge rushers, Parsons is on another plane regarding versatility and athleticism. He can line up at any position in the front seven on a pass rush down and get to the quarterback. Let’s propose two contracts for two separate scenarios.

The first scenario is Parsons accepting a contract very similar to Crosby’s, which is short-term with a vast majority of it guaranteed. Splitting Garrett’s salary down the middle with Crosby gives a baseline of $37.5M annually to Parsons, and we’ll give Parsons more of a guarantee than Crosby at 90% of the deal guaranteed. That would give Parsons a contract three years of $112.5M with $101.25 fully guaranteed. This purported contract gives the Cowboys a lesser annual salary to work around and gives Parsons the flexibility to renegotiate a new contract during his athletic prime.

The other idea is for Dallas to reset the market with Parsons but on a longer-term contract. Pay Parsons a contract to keep him a Cowboy into the next decade. Give Parsons $45M annually on a five-year deal worth up to $225M. However, you guarantee the money Parsons for 3/4 of the total salary for a still lucrative $168.75M. A longer contract allows the Cowboys plenty of time to restructure the agreement and lowers the initial cap charge heading into the next few years. The salary cap is constantly increasing, and $45M won’t seem like much a few seasons into the contract.