Mock draft database: Huge mock draft update after 1st wave of free agency

At the end of January, we published our first mock draft database of the season. At the time, 22 of the 25 mocks (88%) we looked at were projecting the Cowboys to take either RB Ashton Jeanty (13 mocks) or WR Luther Burden (9).

But a lot has happened since then: The combine came and went, this year’s salary cap was announced, the final comp picks were released, and the first week of free agency is behind us, so it’s time to turn our attention to the very serious business of mock drafting.

On the hypothesis that the predictive value of multiple mock drafts is greater than that of a single mock, we are taking a survey of 40 different mock drafts today. Importantly, all 40 mocks were published on or after the 13th of March, three days after the opening of the NFL’s official free agency tampering period.

And with most of the biggest trades and free agent signings done, it’s time for another mock draft rundown now that we should have a better understanding of team needs going into the draft. We’ll kick off this exercise with a look at all 40 mocks, and which players they have the Cowboys selecting.

That’s a ton of info to digest, so here’s a condensed version that’s also easier to read:

The first thing to note is that WR (11 picks) and RB (8 picks) remain the most popular positions. But 19 out of 40 picks, or 48%, is a far cry from the 88% we saw in our January mock draft summary.

Another thing to note is that WR Luther Burden was picked for the Cowboys in nine of the 25 January mocks. This time he’s not mocked to the Cowboys even once. In fact, he doesn’t even show up as a first-rounder in 23 of the mock drafts today.

And finally, with 18 different players mocked to the Cowboys in the 40 mocks today, there is clearly no consensus on what the Cowboys will do in the draft.

To get a little more clarity on which player could be available for the Cowboys, you can look up the player ranking on your favorite big board, you can make up your own ranking, and you could even use a consensus big board to figure out such a ranking.

Or we could look at the average draft position for each player based on the 40 mocks above, which is exactly what you’ll see in the table below.

For the data in the table, I excluded what look to be the consensus top four picks (Cameron Ward, Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, Shedeur Sanders) and also excluded all QBs and TEs.

I included all 18 players that were mocked to the Cowboys at least once, and added four more to round things out (DL Mason Graham, DE Mykal Williams, DE James Pearce, WR Luther Burden)

To arrive at the average rank, I calculated the average across the 40 mocks, and where a player fell out of the Top 32, I used the 33th spot to calculate the average draft position.

The Cowboys are very likely looking at impact playmakers at No. 12. Perhaps a wide receiver to pair with CeeDee Lamb. Perhaps a running back to supercharge the running game. Maybe even a pass rusher opposite Micah Parsons. But it’s hard to imagine Brian Schottenheimer passing on an opportunity to elevate his passing or running game with either Tetairoa McMillan or Ashton Jeanty available at the No. 12 spot.

The odds for McMillan being available are 38% (which means 38% of the mocks pick him at #12 or later) and slightly less for Jeanty with 25%. That’s not a bad place to be in, assuming the Cowboys like both guys. And your odds get even better if the Cowboys want to pick either of them. 23 of the 40 mocks (58%) have one or the other still available when the Cowboys are on the clock.

If I were the Cowboys, that’s exactly the scenario I would be looking for.

However, there are still 17 mocks (42%) in which neither Jeanty nor McMillan are available anymore. In that case, the Cowboys have three options:

1. They get the second-best player at WR and RB, which is what Daniel Jeremiah and Dan Kiper did in their mocks yesterday. Kiper has the Cowboys picking RB Omarion Hampton (Jeanty goes to the Raiders at #6) and Jeremiah has them picking WR Matthew Golden over McMillan, who strangely ends up at #22.
2. They go looking for the best pass rusher available. In 17 mocks with Jeanty and McMillan gone before #12, Shemar Stewart would be available 65% of the time and Jalon Walker 47%. But combined, those two pass rushers show up in 15 of those 17 mocks, or 88% of the time.
3. Catch a falling blue-chip prospect. We do not know how the Cowboys have graded their prospects, but if we assume DT Mason Graham, OT Will Campbell, and OT Armand Membou are blue-chippers, there’s a slim but non-zero chance of 28% that one of them would be available at #12.

And this is where things get really interesting for the Cowboys. If they are focused on WR, RB, and perhaps EDGE, and they miss out on all their top guys, do they trade down, get an extra pick or two in return, and take a shot at the second tier at those positions?

You’ll notice that the table above is conveniently split into two parts, the top part with players ranked 16th or higher and the bottom part with players ranked 21st or lower (marked in gray).

Let’s assume that none of the three options laid out above pan out and the Cowboys move down 10 spots in the draft to No. 22. Here’s what the probabilities look like down there.

There are some interesting names at the bottom of this list and most of them look to have a decent chance of being available. Part of their appeal of course would the extra pick the Cowboys could get for moving down 10 or so spots.

What would you do if the draft played out the way the 40 mocks suggest?

• Pick the best WR and/or RB at #12?
• Pick BPA at #12 regardless of position?
• A Travis-Frederick-style tradedown into the twenties?

Again, all of this is based on the aggregation of mock drafts. If you don’t like where players are ranked, do the same exercise with your favorite big board and report back in the comments.

Tell us in the attached poll or in the comments which of the three options you would prefer.