The Cowboys history at head coach may signal who they draft in the first round

The Cowboys have a tell when it comes to their first-round picks for a first-year head coach

Before reading, imagine the meme of Charlie from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, where photos and red lines are thumb-tacked all over a board behind him. Trying to determine which way the Dallas Cowboys might be leaning this early in the first round of the draft may seem like a fool’s errand; however, there is one thread we can follow that offers clues about which direction to consider.

Dallas is a draft-and-develop team. That has been their core belief regarding roster construction for almost a decade. The front office will be tasked with helping out their first-time head coach, Brian Schottenheimer, in a way they neglected to do last year for Mike McCarthy: getting him some good players to work with.

Considering the history and the core belief in building through the draft, there could be a blueprint for how the Cowboys might navigate the first round with their 12th overall pick.

The Cowboys franchise has had ten head coaches, with five hired in the last 20 years, starting with Bill Parcells in 2003. When any head coach is hired, who they select with their first pick in their tenure really paints the picture of who they want to be and is usually a player the franchise builds around in that era.

The last four coaches in Dallas have had the fortune of Jerry Jones drafting players who align with their identities as offensive or defensive coaches in the first round. While circumstances influence who gets drafted, things don’t always work out as expected. This could be a coincidence or a connection that doesn’t exist. However, the fact that this has occurred for every first-year head coach since 2003 indicates a pattern.

Here are those first-round selections by the Cowboys in the first year of a new head coach:

Bill Parcells – Terence Newman, DB

Wade Phillips – Anthony Spencer, DE

Jason Garrett – Tyron Smith, OT

Mike McCarthy – CeeDee Lamb, WR

There is a story about the 2003 draft and how Parcells argued with the scouts about who he wanted them to pick. Newman was not Parcells’ guy, and he wanted to go in the direction of a defensive tackle, arguing with Jones during their pre-draft meetings. Even if Newman was not the pick, the goal was still to give Parcells, a defensive coach by nature, a player on that side of the ball to work with.

In 2020, during McCarthy’s first draft with Dallas, they desperately needed an edge rusher heading into that season, and all eyes were on LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson. When the Cowboys were on the clock at pick No. 17, CeeDee Lamb was a blinking light staring at their faces. They decided to go with the best player available instead of drafting a player at a position of necessity.

When McCarthy first got to Dallas, he talked about wanting to be better on defense than what he had to work with in Green Bay with the Packers. When Lamb was drafted, they already had Amari Cooper and Micahel Gallup under contract, so picking a wide receiver in the first round was unnecessary for McCarthy’s offense. Still, the value was too good to pass on.

So where does that leave Schottenheimer, who has offense in his DNA? Could the Cowboys lean in that direction again to set their coach up for success in his first year? Well, everything indicates that the team wants to change its approach to the offensive side of the game. Schottenheimer and Stephen Jones have emphasized the importance of establishing the run because that’s what “championship football teams do.”

Dallas’ most significant offensive needs are at running back and offensive line. The 32nd-ranked rushing team from 2024 has three runners under contract for next year: Malik Davis, Hunter Luepke, and Deuce Vaughn. Davis has the highest career rushing total of the three with 161 yards. He was not active for a single game last year.

They could re-sign their leading rusher, Rico Dowdle, but they could also overhaul the entire room and fall in love with Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, one of the top five players in the draft. He would solve their inability to run the ball very quickly.

Dallas could also build in the trenches again and draft an offensive lineman for the third time in the last four seasons. Outside of Pro Bowler Tyler Smith, questions surround the best combination of five players along the line.

Cooper Beebe was outstanding in his first year at center, but would he be better off at guard, the position he played in college? Will there be a battle between Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele for right tackle if Guyton is not the day one starter on the left side? Zack Martin could retire from football, so can his replacement in Brock Hoffman or T.J. Bass step up for 17 games and continue to improve?

There are too many questions about the offensive line right now for the Cowboys to feel comfortable building an identity centered around running the football. However, selecting Will Campbell, Josh Simmons, Tyler Booker, or Kelvin Banks Jr., who all can be day-one starters, and the offensive line looks much better than last year.

Dominoes must fall before things are finalized for the draft. The Cowboys desperately need to make some moves in free agency because they don’t have enough draft picks to address every need on the roster. Suppose Dallas does not sign a high-profile name at running back, offensive line, or wide receiver. In that case, we can narrow our focus to those three positions, considering the history of first-round picks for a first-year head coach and the desire to be an offensive-first team under Schottenheimer.