Why the Dallas Cowboys may not land a first-round-graded player in 2025 NFL draft

Who do you think the Cowboys are going to draft in the first round?

It is no secret that the 2025 NFL draft is one of the weaker classes we have seen in recent years. With only a few blue-chip prospects at the top, the 2025 class will likely see fewer first-round-graded players than we are used to. For most draft analysts, there seems to be between 10 and 13 first-round-graded players in the 2025 NFL draft. With the Cowboys owning the 12th overall pick in the 2025 draft, will they have the opportunity to land one?

Above is a recent update of the consensus board, and we can see where many of the main NFL draft evaluators have players graded in this class. Penn State’s Abdul Carter seems to be the consensus number one overall player in this class with Travis Hunter following closely behind. For most evaluators, Carter and Hunter seem to be the only blue-chip players in this class and will likely not be in range for the Cowboys to draft come April.

Where things start getting interesting are the few names following Carter and Hunter. Michigan DT Mason Graham, Michigan CB Will Johnson, and Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty are the three other players landing in the top five of the consensus rankings. In Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft, he has Graham landing with the Jacksonville Jaguars at fifth-overall, Johnson landing with the Atlanta Falcons at 15th overall, and Jeanty landing with the Dallas Cowboys at 12th overall.

Dane Brugler’s most recent mock draft has Graham landing with the New York Jets at seventh-overall, Johnson landing with the Jacksonville Jaguars at fifth-overall, and Ashton Jeanty landing with the Denver Broncos at 20th overall. As you can see there is no real consensus outside of Carter and Hunter, who ended up going in the first three picks in both Brugler and Jeremiah’s recent mock drafts.

With the 12th overall pick, the Cowboys are likely keying in on wide receiver, offensive line, or defensive line with their first-round pick, but the sleeper here is Jeanty. He is widely considered a top five prospect by most people studying the NFL draft, but with questions about positional value and one of the deeper running back classes in recent years, it is tough to determine how high he will go in April. The Cowboys are likely to be one of the two teams in the top 15 to consider the Boise State running back, with the Chicago Bears a sneaky team to watch with the recent hire of Ben Johnson.

For the Cowboys to land one of the few first-round-graded players, they will likely need a few of the quarterbacks to go off the board early to some of the quarterback-needy teams picking in the top eight. Luckily, for the Cowboys, there are currently six teams (Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints) in the top ten who could be in the market for a quarterback as of today. With Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders the only two quarterbacks garnering top ten consideration, there is a good chance both players could go ahead of the Cowboys in this year’s draft, pushing first-round-graded players at positions of need to them.

As of today, I currently have only 11 first-round grades in the 2025 draft. Those 11 are:

1. Abdul Carter, ED, Penn State
2. Travis Hunter, WR/DB, Colorado
3. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
4. Mason Graham, iDL, Michigan
5. Will Campbell, OL, LSU
6. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
7. Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
8. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
9. Mike Green, ED, Marshall
10. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
11. Jalon Walker, ED, Georgia

The Cowboys will likely be right on the border of being able to draft one of those players based on where they stand currently, making the next few months a nervous wait for the front office and fans. In most cases, the 12th overall pick is almost guaranteed to land you a first-round-graded player, but unfortunately for the Cowboys they are ending up with a premium draft slot in a non-premium draft year.