Reports are suggesting that McCarthy will be back in Dallas, here’s why that’s a major mistake.
It sure sounds like the Dallas Cowboys will be bringing back Mike McCarthy with a new contract to kick off 2025. While the details of the potential deal are still unknown, there are multiple reasons why that signals bad news for Cowboys fans.
After several days of discussions about the 2024 season and the future, #Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and coach Mike McCarthy remain open to moving forward together and the sides are expected to open talks today on a new contract to keep him in Dallas, per sources.
There have been… pic.twitter.com/JDIPsM1Q4D
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 10, 2025
After a disappointing 7-10 record in 2024, all signs pointed to Jerry Jones electing to move on from the fifth-year head coach after finishing in third place of the NFC East and missing the playoffs for the first time in three years.
In his five years in Dallas, McCarthy posted an impressive 49-35 record, but lack of success in the playoffs led Jones to make his famous quote over the offseason of “all in”.
While many Cowboys fans were not quite sure how to take that, Jones later stated that he was going all-in on the season in regard to players and coaches on the last year of their deals. Leading most logical fans to believe that if the Cowboys disappointed in 2024, head coach Mike McCarthy could be on the move. The Cowboys made some moves in the offseason when CeeDee Lamb finalized a deal in August as the Cowboys neared the end of training camp, and Dak Prescott was signed to a massive contract before the Cowboys week one game against the Cleveland Browns.
But what about McCarthy?
With no news of any contract talk throughout the season, most believed it was NFC Championship or bust for the 18-year veteran head coach.
After missing the playoffs and having one of their worst seasons since 2015, McCarthy looks to be returning as the Cowboys head coach in 2025. And that could be a massive mistake for the Cowboys.
In 2024, the Cowboys played nine playoff teams who will be competing for the Lombardi Trophy over the next few weeks. The Cowboys finished 3-6 against those teams and had a point differential of -118. The 2024 season was not kind to the Cowboys, so let us take a look back and see how they did against equal or better opponents in previous seasons.
In 2023, the Cowboys played seven playoff teams and finished with a 3-4 record and a point differential of -16. In 2022, the Cowboys played eight playoff teams and finished with a 5-3 record and had a point differential of +56. In 2021, the Cowboys played seven playoff teams and finished with a 3-4 record and a point differential of +33.
In the last four years, the McCarthy led Cowboys finished with a 15-17 record against playoff teams and a point differential of -45. The only two years they finished with a positive point differential in McCarthy’s tenure at head coach was with Kellen Moore as the primary play-caller and offensive coordinator. Since Moore’s departure, the Cowboys offense has struggled to keep pace with contending teams and win games against the top dogs in the NFC and AFC.
Which leads to the biggest issue. McCarthy was brought in to get this team over the hump, and despite having the opportunity to do so, he’s failed. While this study was just done on regular-season games, when we take a deeper dive into the playoffs, it paints an even bleaker picture.
In the Cowboys 2023 playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, the Cowboys were dealt a 48-32 loss, at home, against a team most thought was the underdog coming into AT&T Stadium. In 2022, the Cowboys seemed to have turned the corner, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round, before losing on the road to the San Francisco 49ers 19-12. In 2021, the Cowboys were again embarrassed at home by the 49ers in a 23-17 loss in the Wild Card round.
The Cowboys hired Mike McCarthy to do what former head coach Jason Garrett could not. Get them to and through the playoffs. After falling flat on that responsibility for five years, it leads a lot of fans questioning why McCarthy would return to the Cowboys on a new contract after following the path Garrett did for over a decade. While the lack of ideal candidates in this head coaching cycle is a real thing, McCarthy has shown for five years what he can do against the top half of league and in the playoffs and it has not been good enough. In fact, in their best years against those teams, with a positive point differential, McCarthy was not calling plays and was not the team’s offensive coordinator.
For a team that has fell flat in the playoffs for almost two decades now, a lot of fans had hope for change, but with reports filtering out over the last week, it seems like more of the same could be on the way for fans.
