The idea of Jerry Jones still being undecided on the future of Mike McCarthy sounds preposterous. Jones has nearly five full seasons of data with McCarthy to reference so it’s unlikely one more seemingly meaningless game is going to sway the Dallas Cowboys’ owner in either direction.

If Jones values regular season success most, he should be thrilled with McCarthy. McCarthy had posted three consecutive 12-win seasons as head coach in Dallas and routinely ranked at the top of the league in offense, which just happens to be his bread and butter. Bringing McCarthy back under this circumstance should be a no-brainer.

If Jones prioritizes postseason success, he should be severely disappointed in his head coach. Despite being handed a ready-made Super Bowl contender, McCarthy hasn’t been able to do any better than the coach who failed before him. He’s routinely lost in embarrassing fashion and has been out-schemed in nearly every instance. Under this circumstance letting McCarthy walk would be a no-brainer.

It seems the only thing this situation can’t be is an undecided matter, yet a deeper look at the coaching carousel this offseason may make the case for just that.

Major multimillion dollar corporations rarely make a change at CEO unless they have a better option in mind. Unless they’re simply looking for a scapegoat for a particularly bad situation, they only make a move if it’s for an upgrade. If the Cowboys were seeking to achieve the former (scapegoat) they probably would have cut bait with McCarthy after the debacle against Green Bay last postseason. Whereas if the Cowboys are more focused on an upgrade, they are probably just waiting for a more promising alternative to pop up this winter.

Speculation has been rampant for months as to which head coach candidates will be looking for jobs this offseason. Some are sure bets while others are a flip of the coin. The uncertain candidate pool could be contributing to Jones’ uncertain stance on his head coach. Based on all the regular season success, Jones knows McCarthy is far from a poor option. Based on all the disappointing postseason performances, Jones also knows there are far better coaching options out there in the NFL as well. Who they are, if they’ll be available and if they’ll be interested in the Cowboys are the questions Jones must be considering.

Being good enough to win in the regular season seems to be good enough for the fanbase. McCarthy’s Cowboys remain a ratings juggernaut, win or lose. The value of the Cowboys franchise remains the highest in the world, win or lose. Merchandise sales, media coverage and attendance also seem to be impervious to team failures. Jones doesn’t have to force the replacement if he doesn’t see a clear and obvious upgrade.

There’s an excellent chance the Cowboys decided McCarthy’s fate last winter and his exodus is simply a forgone conclusion. Jones doesn’t like to spend money if he doesn’t have to (see also the Cowboys annual free agent spending) and firing McCarthy with one year left on his contract would essentially require Dallas to pay two head coaches in 2024. Under this very realistic premise the Cowboys are just allowing McCarthy to save face and stay marketable even if they’ve already decided a new direction for the franchise.

Based on the wealth of data McCarthy has given them over the years, the odds are Jones knows exactly what McCarthy’s fate is. But there remains a possibility Jones really is undecided and simply waiting until the full candidate pool has shown itself.

McCarthy’s contract expires on January 14, so Jones has time to see who hits the coaching market and who does not. If a clear and obvious upgrade isn’t available for the Cowboys, Jones may simply decide McCarthy is good enough.

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