Which Week 16 games are relevant to the Cowboys and what outcomes should you be rooting for?
We’re down to just three weeks left in the 2024 regular season and find the Cowboys winning three of their last four. It’s almost certainly too little, too late in terms of the playoffs, and the recent wins aren’t helping Dallas in terms of next year’s draft pick, either.
Technically, and perhaps a little torturously, the Cowboys are still on a ventilator in the NFC playoff picture. As we’ve discussed many times already, Dallas needs to win out and have every team between them and the seventh seed start losing a lot of games.
If the Commanders upset the Eagles in one of the early games on Sunday, the Cowboys will be officially eliminated before they kick off against Tampa Bay that night. And even if Washington goes down, Dallas can still get eliminated if it loses to the Bucs.
Like last week, we won’t dwell much on playoff possibilities because they border on impossible. Instead, let’s look at the Cowboys’ 2025 draft pick and how this week’s action could help or hurt their positioning next April.
If the season had ended last week, here would be the 2025 draft order for the top 15:
- New York Giants (2-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- New England Patriots (3-11)
- Carolina Panthers (3-11)
- Tennessee Titans (3-11)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- New York Jets (4-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-10)
- New Orleans Saints (5-9)
- Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
- Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
Dallas dropped a spot from 12th to 13th after beating Carolina and having Miami slide into the mix. The Cowboys currently have a stronger strength-of-schedule rating than the Bengals or Dolphins but lower than the Colts and 49ers, which is why they’re slotted in the middle of the 6-8 teams. But strength of schedule will change as the regular season plays out, so it won’t be until after Week 18 that we know for sure how the tiebreakers play out.
With a tough matchup against the Buccaneers, Dallas could soon be 6-9 and pushing its way into the top 10 of the draft. What other Week 16 games should we be following for potential impact to the Cowboys?
Jaguars over Raiders
Dallas can’t get above the two-win Raiders at this point but can still tie the three-win Jaguars if they lose out and Jacksonville wins out. So with the focus on improving our draft spot, this is the outcome that at least has a chance of contributing to that goal.
Bengals over Browns
Colts over Titans
As we just mentioned with the Jags, Dallas could still match records with Cleveland and Tennessee in a lose-out/win-out scenario. But with both Indy and Cincy currently tied with the Cowboys in the 6-8 pack, their winning is far more likely the benefit Dallas when the draft order is finalized.
Dolphins over 49ers
Neither team winning would be bad for Dallas, but Miami is currently above us in the draft order with a lower strength of schedule. So that gives them a slight edge for rooting interest.
Giants over Falcons
Dallas can’t have a worse record than New York at this point, so this one is mostly meaningless. But the Giants not getting the top-overall pick is still something to root for, right?
Jets over Rams
Bears over Lions
Panthers over Cardinals
Patriots over Bills
Saints over Packers
All easy picks; teams currently ahead of Dallas in the draft order looking to hang a surprising loss on playoff contenders. If teams like Buffalo start letting off the gas after clinching their division, maybe some of these upsets become a little more possible.
