Few quarterbacks have the grit of Baker Mayfield
The Cowboys will face the Buccaneers in Dallas on Sunday night, with both teams looking very different from the last time they met. That game came in the Wild Card round of the playoffs following the 2022 season, and the Cowboys won it 31-14 in what turned out to be Tom Brady’s final game ever.
A few months afterward, Tampa Bay set out to find a new quarterback after Brady had taken them to the Super Bowl not long ago. Reports suggested that head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht felt confident in Kyle Trask, a third-round pick in 2021 who had been sitting behind Brady, but the Buccaneers still wanted to find a more experienced option to compete with Trask.
At the same time, Tampa Bay was looking for a new direction on offense after parting ways with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Bowles ultimately hired Dave Canales, who had worked in Seattle for the entirety of Pete Carroll’s tenure and most recently served as the quarterbacks coach for Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year season.
Canales was brought in to run the offense and, not long after, the Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield to a one-year deal. The former first overall pick in 2018, Mayfield had been dumped by the Browns in favor of Deshaun Watson and then had short stints with both the Panthers and Rams in 2022, with very mixed results.
After beating out Trask in the preseason competition, Mayfield was named the starter for 2023. He went on to set career high’s in passing yards, completion rate, and touchdown passes while leading the Buccaneers to the playoffs. As a result, Mayfield was given a three-year extension and Canales landed the Panthers head coaching gig.
Once again looking for a new offensive coordinator, Bowles landed this time on Liam Coen. A staunch disciple of Sean McVay, Coen had just completed his second season as the offensive coordinator for the Kentucky Wildcats, with a break in between those college stints to serve as McVay’s offensive coordinator. Coen was also an assistant on McVay’s staff from 2018 to 2020.
Needless to say, Coen’s offense is very much forged from the foundation’s of McVay’s offense, itself an offshoot of the Shanahan tree. That offered some philosophical continuity, as much of Canales’ scheme in 2023 was also influenced by McVay.
What that means for the Buccaneers is a heavy use of 11 personnel, tons of pre-snap motion, and a diverse run game. Coen also opted to lean into Mayfield’s vast experience and has given the quarterback freedom to adjust plays at the line of scrimmage. Coen was the Rams’ offensive coordinator when Mayfield briefly played there, though McVay continued to call plays, and that has served a foundation for the relationship between these two.
With three weeks left to go in the regular season, it’s working beautifully. Mayfield is third in both completion rate and touchdown passes, fourth in passing yards, and ninth in EPA/play. The Buccaneers as a whole are sixth in EPA/play and seventh in offensive DVOA. They’ve been effective in both the pass and run game, where the tandem of Rachaad White and fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving have already combined for 1,425 rushing yards and nine touchdowns with a 4.97 average per carry.
This is all despite the offense suffering a rash of injuries throughout the year. Mike Evans, who is in danger of falling short of 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his 11-year career, missed some time with an injury. At the same time, Chris Godwin – who Coen began to utilize heavily in the slot – suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7 that’s pushed rookie Jalen McMillan into a larger role.
The Buccaneers have adapted, though, and Mayfield is thriving as the facilitator of this offense. Coen does a great job of scheming guys open, as Mayfield has the fifth-lowest tight window throw rate in the league.
That said, Mayfield’s gunslinger tendencies still take over at times: only Kirk Cousins, who was just benched in Atlanta, has thrown more interceptions. Mayfield also has the fifth-highest turnover worthy play rate. What’s odd, though, is when his gunslinger tendencies take over: 11 of Mayfield’s 14 picks have come in a clean pocket, and he’s third in the league in turnover worthy play rate when throwing without pressure.
It seems that the key to forcing mistakes from Mayfield is simply sitting back and flooding the passing lanes rather than trying to speed him up, which is when Mayfield is at his best. That doesn’t seem like the best matchup for this Cowboys defense, which has been thriving on blitzes and pressures that confuse quarterbacks and make them get rid of the ball quickly.
This game also figures to be the toughest test of the Dallas run defense in quite some time, as Coen has relied on his rushing duo more and more as the season has gone on. Only the Ravens are averaging more yards per carry than Tampa Bay, and that could be a problem for the Cowboys come Sunday night.
