Sunday night feels big.
Things have been looking up for the Cowboys lately, winning three of their last four and keeping a razor thin sliver of hope alive for the playoffs. That could all change this week, though, when they take on the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.
There are two ways the Cowboys could be officially eliminated from postseason contention this week. If the Commanders beat or even tie the Eagles in their 1 PM ET matchup on Sunday, that would do it. Philadelphia is currently a 3.5-point favorite on the road, so it’s going to be close in that regard.
Assuming an Eagles win, though, the Cowboys would still need to beat the Buccaneers in order to still be able to realistically say they have something to fight for. That presents its own challenge, as Tampa Bay is hitting its stride right now.
The Buccaneers have won four straight to move to 8-6 and a one-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South race. Head coach Todd Bowles is on the verge of making it three straight division titles in as many years, though his team cannot clinch anything this week.
Still, it’s been a triumphant turn for Tampa Bay. They’ve been hit with the injury bug a few times, losing Chris Godwin for the year earlier in the season. They also lost four in a row – to the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers – all by one score. The loss in Kansas City came down to overtime, an impressive feat in its own right.
Since then, the offense – led by Baker Mayfield – has found its rhythm while the defense has returned to form somewhat. They had a close call, needing overtime to beat the Panthers, but logged wins against the Giants, Raiders, and Chargers by a combined margin of 61 points. Their most recent game, a blowout of the Chargers, was easily the most impressive.
To hammer home just how good Tampa Bay has been recently, consider this: since Week 12, they’re second in the NFL in team EPA/play, behind only the Bills. They’re getting hot at the right time, but so are the Cowboys. In that same span, Dallas is tied for ninth in team EPA/play.
Is that enough to make this a real game? Sportsbooks don’t seem to think so. The Buccaneers are currently 4.5-point favorites as the road team, so Vegas doesn’t have much faith in the Cowboys. That’s fair, as the Cowboys’ last four opponents have a combined record of 20-36. Dallas has objectively played better in recent weeks, but they haven’t been doing it against the cream of the crop.
The Buccaneers may not be the cream of the crop either, but they’re up there. Coming into this game, they’re seventh in offensive DVOA, and Mayfield is playing especially well after signing an extension last offseason. The quarterback is ninth in EPA/play and third in completion rate. His gunslinger tendencies are still there, as Mayfield is second in the league in interceptions and fifth in turnover-worthy play rate, but he’s also third in touchdowns and fourth in yards.
The defense, run by Bowles himself, has been playing much better in recent weeks but still isn’t the force it usually is. The secondary has been especially susceptible, and only two defenses are giving up more passing yards per game. That should be a concern for Tampa Bay as they now go up against CeeDee Lamb, who’s on a hot streak right now despite catching passes from Cooper Rush.
When you look closely, there is a genuine path to victory for the Cowboys. They’ll need to play really efficient football on both sides from start to finish, but the Buccaneers are far from invincible. We’ve seen the Cowboys rise to the occasion in recent weeks, so perhaps we’ll see a similar effort Sunday night in a must-win game.
