The Cowboys defense has been great as of late.
The vibes are good in Dallas right now, whether you like it or not. Many fans had come around to the idea of this season being lost and getting rewarded with a premium draft pick – and a new head coach – as a result. Now, though, the Cowboys have won three games in four tries and all the momentum seems to be pointing to continuity with the staff.
Apologies to those who were hoping for a prized player in this year’s draft, but the Cowboys have found their winning ways lately with some plain ol’ good football. The defense has been especially good, and the recent surge offers legitimate promise in running things back with this coaching staff. Let’s dive into the analytics to get a better sense of it all.
First, a dose of reality: the Cowboys are still not a good team. They are technically still in the hunt – Dallas currently has a 0.6% chance of making the playoffs, but they can only do so as the seventh seed – but it’s highly probable they get eliminated this week or next week.
That said, the team is playing better lately. Both the offense and defense have better weighted DVOA grades than their season-long DVOA grades, a reflection of the improvements the Cowboys have made. It’s still not enough to make them a true dark horse contender, but it’s something to feel positive about.
The EPA-based team tiers paint a similar picture. Two weeks ago, they were in the bottom three in the league but have now climbed all the way up to 27th, and they’re likely to pull ahead of both the Patriots and Jaguars with the way those two teams are playing right now.
Furthermore, if we look just at the last four weeks – during which the Cowboys have started to find their footing – the Cowboys are actually dead even with the Bengals for 10th in total team EPA/play. Granted, all three of their remaining opponents are well ahead of them even in this last stretch, but that offers an idea of just how much better the Cowboys are right now.
Offense
The offense has been notably better in these last four weeks, especially. They still perform about as you’d expect for an offense that’s starting Cooper Rush, but things have gotten better. McCarthy has settled into a groove in his first time calling plays for Rush on a consistent basis.
Over the last four weeks, Dallas is 14th in both EPA/play and success rate. Even better: they’re fourth in rushing success rate. Rico Dowdle has emerged as a serious threat, with three straight 100+ yard rushing games. That’s a heck of a turnaround from where this run game was just a couple months ago.
Of course, the run game has been such an emphasis lately because Rush is, well, Rush. Without throwing any disrespect his way, Rush is still just a backup quarterback. He’s not someone you want to be starting, but Rush is now showing why the Cowboys trust him to play when he has to.
Outside of a very curious but consistent fumbling issue, Rush has been solid. His efficiency metrics all put him right where you want a backup to be: just on the fringe of the Top 32 in the league. He also seems to be getting more confident in his supporting cast, but Rush offers a sufficient starting level of talent to win with if other things can go right. And lately, they’ve been going very right.
The Cowboys have had so many injuries along the offensive line this year that it’s become difficult to keep track of who’s actually playing these days. Chuma Edoga played two different spots this past week, for example, and Brock Hoffman has done the same at other points.
Despite all the changes, the Cowboys line is playing its best football of the year. Aside from pass block win rate, they’re comfortably in the top 10 in every metric here. And the improvements in run blocking have played a huge factor in Dowdle’s emergence.
Defense
Here’s the fun part: this defense is balling out right now. Players are looking comfortable in Mike Zimmer’s defense, and Micah Parsons’ return has taken things to a new level. In the six weeks since Parsons came back from injury, Dallas is eighth in EPA/play and third (!) in EPA/dropback.
Zimmer’s creative simulated pressure scheme has made it impossible to throw the ball against the Cowboys. The most impressive thing is how he’s doing it: Dallas is just 11th in blitz rate on the whole, but they’re third in blitzing on third downs. Not coincidentally, Dallas is fourth in pressure rate and sacks. Zimmer has been forcing opponents into third and long and then unleashing hell (read: Micah Parsons) on the quarterback, and it’s going gangbusters.
Not to renew the debate about pass rush vs pass coverage, but the numbers for the Cowboys secondary kind of suggests that pass rush rules all. Or at least it does when your pass rush is this good. By most metrics, the Cowboys have not been great in coverage; Trevon Diggs, whose season is now done, has the best passer rating among Cowboys corners with a mere 89.3 rating.
The pass rush has freed things up, though, particularly for Donovan Wilson. The safety struggled mightily early on in the year, but Zimmer has started to deploy him as more of a roaming monster near the line of scrimmage thanks to the great pass rush. Three of his last four games have yielded a 72.0+ grade from Pro Football Focus; prior to this stretch, Wilson’s single-game high for the year was 70.7 in Week 1. The numbers don’t look good for the secondary, but they’re playing better ball now that the pass rush is hitting its stride.
